This will be relatively quick. I’m here every day on Dkos but haven’t blogged in over a year.
I’m really tired of all of the discussion. President Trump obstructed justice. Mueller made it absolutely what his intention was with the report. Do I wish that he would have actually said it out loud? Sure, but to me and most others ….. he basically did. It was the loudest scream of a whisper I’ve ever heard.
I ask myself “What excuses are there to not have hearings?” I find two answers to consider.
Answer #1 — the Senate won’t do the final job. This isn’t an acceptable answer. If I have a co-worker who is going to mess up something that I started I still get my job done and document it as best as possible that I did the job properly so that hopefully he gets fired and I don’t. End of discussion. Not relevant unless all you care about is ….
Answer #2: Political calculations. So, this one has pissed me off from almost day one of this new congress — the idea that there was a political threat over this. That is wasn’t politically safe or astute, in light of answer #1 above. I was always opposed to this idea for the reason so many of us are. If you aren’t going to stand up for the laws of the country then why the hell even bother. I’m not a Democrat because I want people to sit around in chairs with the idea that the “won” and then they won’t do anything. This isn’t worth squat.
Now, after Mueller’s TV appearance it’s even worse than that and here is the point of this diary.
There is no rational political consideration anymore. None.
For me I am assuming that “Political consideration” means — if the Dems start the impeachment process they can lose votes as a result. Can we agree with this basic idea of what a political consideration is? Am I missing it? Please let me know. So, what we need to examine is the voter who would have voted for the Democratic candidate but the explicit reason that they changed their mind and voted for Trump is that the Democratic house chose to start impeachment hearings. It’s critical to understand that this theoretical person meets this barrier.
Because if I am not missing it I will use some algebra here:
(The Number of voters intending to Vote Dem in 2010) -
(The Numbers of these voters who would decide to vote for Trump directly because of the impeachment) = (The final vote count)
Shortened to:
Votecount = (Current-count) — (Flipped-to-Trump-because-of-impeachment).
I present that Flipped-to-Trump-because-of-impeachment = 0. Back to the above contention, the person in this equation must be a flipped vote. A person who wanted the Dems but then thought that the action of impeachment was wrong. I postulate that this theoretical person is a fantasy.
More simply presented as (X-0) = X. Zero Dem voters will flip and vote Trump because of an ‘unfair’ impeachment.
The above equation is simple and real. I don’t believe there is any voter at current who is most likely to vote for the Democratic candidate but they will actually change their minds and choose Donald Trump simply because of the potential act of the House Of Representatives doing their job.
This formula makes the idea of the political calculation itself invalid. Regardless of whether a person finds it to be a good idea or bad idea to make a decision on were it valid. The calculation is invalid on the face of it.
Get to business.
#Update (work in progress): Someone made a really good comment about the calculation is missing voter turnout. I understand that and have thought about that so it would be much more complicated … and by being more complicated and also unclear I can see it throwing a wrench in my idea …. but I will mention it and how it would look so …..
I will start by this. I believe that there are actually two sides to this which are both real.
Case 1 — the impeachment happens: Some Republicans who will go to the polls who might have stayed home with no impeachment.
Case 2 — No impeachment: In this case there is no net gain or loss of Trump supporters. No Republican changes either way. No Republican is more motivated to vote by the lack of impeachment and in addition no Republican is less motivated to vote.
On the Dem side
Case 1 — Impeachment: I believe that this can actually be a net positive for the Dems. I believe that this can service to actually motivate more voters to turn out and strengthen the Dem position. I believe a show of force will actively motivate voters.
Case 2 — No impeachment: I 100% believe that this will cause a huge loss of voter turnout. I think that people who don’t agree with this aren’t listening to the clear voices which are extremely concerned that this slow-go doesn’t represent what they wanted and a failure to impeach will be a kiss of death for many.
So if you look at voter turnout and use 2 equations, first based on the impeachment:
Dem_Votecount = (Current-count) — (Flipped-to-Trump-because-of-impeachment) + extra-dems — extra-Republicans
Then without impeachment
Dem_Votecount = (Current-count) — (Flipped-to-Trump-because-of-impeachment) — demotivated-dems
If you examine it, what this really becomes a question of is — which is a bigger negative?
extra-dems — extra Republicans in the case of an impeachment
or
demotivated-dems in the case of a lack of impeachment.
This one is less clear but for me, if I were going to be on the answer to that — I would be betting that the number of lost votes of demotivated dems through lack of impeachment is a much bigger offset than the first.
My 2 cents