First, let me say that there is a great diary on this subject by Merlin1963 which I urge you to read as many already have. I do not intend to repeat what Merlin1963 has written, but instead give you my perspective as a Pelosi Fan as to why she has me scratching my head and list some of the many reasons why not ever opening an Impeachment Inquiry is a wrong and dangerous path.
A few weeks back, before Mueller’s public statement, it seemed to me that the argument was not about whether to open an impeachment inquiry, but when? Pro-Impeachment Democrats were arguing that we should open an impeachment inquiry now to gather evidence on Trump’s crimes and misdeeds, while Pelosi was arguing for gathering the evidence now through normal Congressional oversight means to support opening an impeachment inquiry later. Back then Pelosi’s strategy seemed to be first presenting all or most of the damning evidence on Trump in order to gain substantial (large majority) public support for starting an impeachment process, with the hope that it might start swaying some Republican Senators or at least make them a little bit uncomfortable in their support for Trump. Although Pro-Impeachment Democrats were arguing that formally opening an impeachment inquiry now would give the House Judiciary Committee more authority to obtain evidence from Trump’s/Barr’s STONEWALLING White House, I could find ho concrete legal basis for this claim. Trump and others in his administration past and present, would likely ignore Congressional subpoenas under a banner of an impeachment inquiry just as he/they are now ignoring them under a congressional oversight banner. In both cases, the remedy is to get to the Courts as quickly as possible to enforce the subpoenas. If a Court was to rule in Trump’s favor on the basis that such a subpoena could only be valid under an impeachment banner, than the case for starting an impeachment process now would have merit. But the fact is that so far the Courts are clearly and loudly ruling in Congress’s favor on such subpoenas, and there is little indication that Congress will lose these court battles for lack of an impeachment inquiry.
Therefore, I thought the argument over when to begin an impeachment inquiry was mainly a symanticle one, with no discernible effect on the investigative process. While I didn’t have as much concern as Pelosi over the perceived negative aspects of starting the formal inquiry now, I found her strategy then to have substantial merit and so I was onboard with it.
But her latest remark has me scratching my head:
“I don't want to see the president impeached. I want to see him in prison.”
With all due respect,
What The Hell Does That Mean?
In almost all the interviews she has done, Pelosi has expressed her desire to reunite the Country and warned that impeachment can be a divisive process which should only be used as a last resort (analogous to using military force to resolve a conflict). Whether a fanciful notion or not, she apparently would like to break Republicans of their cult-like following of Trump and bring them back to reality with the rest of us by simply revealing all Trump’s lawlessness. So if this is your goal, however unrealistic it might be, why then say “I want to see him in prison.” There is no more divisive statement you could make, and it sets you right up for accusations of both-side-er-ism (“Lock Her Up” or “Lock Him Up”). This makes no sense!
So Nancy, What’s Your Plan?
As I see it, there are two (2) possibilities:
1. Plan 1 — Get a significant majority supporting impeachment before formally beginning the process:
As I said above, if Pelosi is simply trying to get out as much damaging information on Trump to sway public opinion so that a significant majority supports impeachment before beginning a formal inquiry, I can support that.
It would set up a process that is more like a Nixon-like impeachment process and less like a Clinton-like impeachment process. It could shift the pressure on to Senate Republicans, especially those running for re-election in 2020, and force them to take a stand on the impeachment question. This would be especially helpful in 2020 if we could get a majority of voters to back removal of Trump in States where Republican Senators are running for re-election, but where a majority of their Primary voters oppose impeachment. It would put them in a real electoral bind, and may force some to support removal to save their own political hides which is all they really care about.
2. Plan 2 — Get a significant majority opposing Trump so that voters boot him out in 2020:
However, if Pelosi trying to get out as much damaging information on Trump simply to sway public opinion of 2020 voters, I can’t support that.
First off, if the Founding Fathers would have intended for voters to decide a President’s fate after being shown to have committed “High Crimes and/or Misdemeanors” they would have never written impeachment into the Constitution. What would be the point if they simply thought that voters should decide? Not moving forward with a Trump impeachment inquiry at some point would be a blatant disregard by Congress of its Constitutional duty pure and simple.
Furthermore, I am not sure that NOT starting an Impeachment Inquiry at all, is a good political strategy. It demoralizes the Democratic base and it lets Republican Senators off the hook.
It is also a dangerous plan. What if Trump, once again accepts help from Russia who manipulates public opinion, voting registration and maybe even voter tallies this time and gets re-elected. Then what do we do? Do we start impeachment for his 2020 crimes, the same ones he committed in 2016 when we chose not to impeach him? How do you impeach a President who has just been re-elected and would claim that we are trying to overturn the will of the people? Hanging all our hopes of ridding this Country of Trump on the results of the 2020 election is a dangerous strategy that could lead to an Imperial President and the destruction of our democracy.
So that’s why, as a Pelosi Fan, she has me scratching my head. I have no idea which plan she is following. Do You!