CBS conducted a comprehensive poll among the first 18 primary and caucus states — the first 4 states plus the Super Tuesday states. The results are good news for Elizabeth Warren. Biden is the front runner in those states, but Warren is not all that far behind him and if, IF, Bernie Sanders were to cede his delegates to Warren, if it becomes clear that she has the better delegate count between the two, it would become a very close contest.
CBS News Battleground Tracker poll: Biden leads, with Warren, Harris, Sanders close behind
CBS News' model translates vote preferences in the states and districts into delegates because that's the count that will ultimately matter — incorporating party rules along the way. Were these vote preferences today to be the ones that emerged across all these states, Biden would lead in the delegate standings through Super Tuesday by a wide margin, with Warren and Sanders in the mix behind him.
Biden's top-preference numbers across the early states would translate into an estimated delegate standing of 731 delegates, compared to Warren's 355 and Sanders' 317. These candidates, in turn, have a distinct edge in consideration over the remainder of the field.
According to the polling conducted by CBS Biden would get 731 delegates, Warren would get 355 delegates, Sanders would get 317 delegates, Harris would end up with 76 delegates, O’Rourke with 73. Warren and Sanders together would get 672 delegates to Biden’s 731. That means one of the two will have to concede his delegates to the other to make this a race. If these numbers hold as extrapolated by the CBS poll tracker Harris might get out of the race after Super Tuesday, with only 76 delegates to her name, as would O’Rourke, Klobuchar and Buttigieg and all other candidates who failed to win any delegates after Super Tuesday. That would leave Biden and Warren and Sanders in the race. Right now Warren is in the better position to make it a real race, as she is a strong selection among all Democrats, only slightly behind Biden:
Biden gets the most consideration, from a majority 55% of Democrats. Warren (49%), Harris (45%) and Bernie Sanders (43%) are trailing closely in that regard.
Pete Buttigieg is being considered by just under a third (32%) across the earliest states. And in keeping with their view that the field is too large, on average the number of candidates voters are considering is actually relatively small — just under four.
Here are the toplines of the CBS battleground poll:
Toplines