Kamala Harris will excite and inspire Democratic voters in 2020 just as Obama did in 2008 and 2012, because of her radiant, powerful, and riveting charisma, because of her fierce but hopeful, joyful warrior approach to campaigning, and because of the historic import of electing the first woman President, the first black woman President, and the first Asian American President.
Hillary lost in 2016 not because Obama voters chose to vote for Trump, but because over 4 million who voted in 2012 for Obama didn’t vote at all in 2016. We can’t let that happen again.
Even more than in 2016, 2020 is going to be an battle between those whose top priority is hate vs those whose top priority is not hate. Given Trump’s hate-based strategy, there will be no way around that, even if the Democratic nominee is a moderate white heterosexual male bipartisan. There’s no use trying to tiptoe around Trumpists by nominating a boring Democrat in the hope that Trump’s base will sleep in on election day. Trump is whipping his hateful base into such a feeding frenzy, they are coming out to vote no matter how boring our nominee is. Our only chance of beating them is with a nominee who energizes the Democratic base even more than Trump energizes his.
Republicans can count on fear and hate to turn their voters out, because fear and hate are the glue that binds them together. But Democrats can’t count on fear and hate of Republicans to get our voters out, because an election that only offers hate and fear, even of Republicans, will just cause many of our most-unlikely-to-vote Democratic leaners to despair and check out of politics, instead of becoming more likely to vote. As the contrast between the lower Democratic voter turnout of 2016 (with “stop Trump” as the main message) with the higher Democratic voter turnouts of 2008 and 2012 (with “hope and change” as the main message) showed, Democratic voters who normally don’t vote will only show up to vote if they feel inspired and excited by the nominee, and not just because they fear and hate Republicans, even Trump-level horror show Republicans.
The outcome of 2018 suggests that we can redraw the map in 2020, and win states that we didn’t think were possible to win in 2016. The many exciting new Democratic leaders who won or came close to winning red and purple states and districts in 2018 showed us that the path to Democratic victories in red and purple states lies in choosing exciting Democratic nominees to energize Democratic voters who normally don’t vote, not in trying to tiptoe around Trump voters by choosing boring Democratic nominees. Stacey Abrams, an inspiring, progressive black woman, was 54,723 votes (1.39%) away from winning Georgia’s governorship in 2018. Andrew Gillum, an inspiring, progressive black man, was 33,693 votes (0.4%) away from winning Florida’s governorship in 2018. Kyrsten Sinema, an inspiring, progressive openly bisexual white woman, won an Arizona senate race by 2.35% (55,900 votes) in 2018. All this shows that even states that Trump won can now be won by an inspiring candidate who is not a heterosexual white man. With the extra excitement and funding of a Presidential campaign at her back, Kamala Harris could well win Arizona, Florida, and Georgia in 2020, in addition to other states that Trump won in 2016, such as Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. Even if she comes close but doesn’t win in some of these 2016 Trump states, her downballot coattails in these states will give Democrats the Senate and even bigger House majorities. And her downballot coattails would further expand Democratic victories in states that didn’t vote for Trump.
Politics are now so polarized that there are not many swing voters left who are truly undecided between Republicans and Democrats. 2020’s election results will be based on which party can get the largest proportion of its base to vote, and not on which party can win the largest proportion of the few voters who are still truly undecided between Republicans and Democrats.
Many demographic groups whose voter turnout in 2016 was far below their full potential are those most likely to favor Democrats, and especially likely to turn out to vote if Harris is the Presidential nominee.
Harris would increase turnout from Democratic youth, Asian Americans, and immigrants (three of the most strongly Democratically leaning groups, as well as the three groups with the lowest historical turnout rates, which means there is much potential for increasing Democratic votes just by getting them excited enough to turn out), as well as from women (an increasingly Democratic leaning group that also constitutes the majority of the electorate) and African Americans (the most strongly Democratic leaning group), as well as from a very large number of Democratic leaning voters who fall into none of the above categories but want to be able to brag to their grandkids that they voted for the first woman President, first Asian American President, and first black woman President in history.
Eligible voters who didn’t vote in 2016 are a much bigger group than swing voters. Only about 8.4 million 2012 Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016. In contrast, there were 86.5 million eligible voters who didn’t vote in 2016. Only 137.5 million (just 61.4%) of 224 million eligible voters voted in 2016. Of course Democrats should try to win over everyone, including swing voters. But swing voters are such a small, unpredictable, hard-to-please group, and so likely to vote for Republicans downballot, even if they don’t vote for Trump, that the payoff for choosing a Presidential nominee who might appeal a bit more to swing voters is far smaller than the payoff for choosing a Presidential nominee who might appeal more to Democratic leaners who didn’t vote in 2016.
With President Obama on the ticket, black voters showed us in 2012, by reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012 (surpassing white voter turnout rates for the first time), that it is possible even for the group that is most heavily targeted by Republicans’ vote suppression to vote at a higher rate than whites, the group that Republicans voter suppression favors the most. Unfortunately, in 2016, the black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6%. The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. Among whites, who were much more likely to favor Republicans, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.
But if black voters turned out in record numbers to vote in 2008 and 2012 for a charismatic black Presidential candidate like Obama, they will do so again for a charismatic black Presidential candidate like Harris. Moreover, black voters showed that it is possible for other Democratic-leaning voters who are similarly targeted by Republican vote suppression, such as youth, immigrants, Asian Americans, and Latinos, to vote at much higher rates than they did in 2016. Only 49.3% of of 10.2 million eligible Asian Americans voted in 2016. Only 47.6% out of 26.7 million eligible Latino voters voted in 2016. Only 54.3 percent of 19.9 million eligible voters who were immigrants voted in 2016. And only 50% of about 24 million eligible youth, ages 18-29 voted in 2016. These groups have a LOT of room to grow their voter turnout.
Women, who are increasingly Democratic leaning, are the majority of the electorate; further increasing the turnout rate of women by even a small percentage will translate to big Democratic wins up and down the ballot. Among the 116.4 million US women who were eligible to vote, 63.3% voted in 2016, in contrast to 63.7% in 2012. The rate increased among white women, to 66.8% in 2016 from 65.6% in 2012. But it decreased among black women (64.1% in 2016 versus 70.7% in 2012). Harris is likely to get at least as many white women to turn out for and vote for Democrats in 2020 as Hillary did in 2016, AND get more women of color, immigrant women, and younger women to turn out and vote for Democrats in 2020.
There are also many Democratic leaning white men who are not racist or sexist, desperately want our country to be less racist and sexist, and will be excited to vote for a President whose symbolism would be a historic step forward in the right direction. Some of Kamala’s strongest supporters on this site are white men.
There are also some white men who are mildly racist and sexist due to their upbringing and recognize that, but really don’t like that part of themselves and will try to fight it whenever they can, including by voting for a woman of color who is unquestionably a million times more qualified and competent than her white male opponent. And there are some who are mildly racist and sexist but don’t want to admit it, and want to prove to themselves and others that they are not racist and sexist by voting for her.
In 2020, Democrats will win only if we can excite Democratic leaning voters who are choosing between voting and not voting, and whose interest in voting is normally very slight. Why are some Democratic leaners not willing to show up to vote unless they are excited and inspired? Many have tuned out politics, news, and political conversations, because it is too overwhelming and depressing. Many don’t understand the details of how government and voting work, because they never paid too much attention to it. Many are too overwhelmed as they deal with school, work, childcare, elder care, health problems, etc. to go through the hassles of getting voter ID, registering to vote, and then actually traveling to the voter booth and possibly waiting in line in the rain, wind, or snow to vote (especially give how difficult voting has become thanks to the vote suppression efforts of Republican-controlled state and local governments). Many also feel their one vote won’t make a difference in the outcome, especially if they live in very blue or very red states. They don’t know or care about local and state races that sometimes are literally decided by one vote even in very blue or very red areas. They can only be motivated to vote by the belief that the act of voting is itself a joyous, beautiful thing that they can feel proud of for its own sake. Voting for Harris will give them that feeling regardless of what they believe about whether their one vote can make a difference. It’s like when sports fans cheer for their favorite team. Even if they don’t believe that their cheers will affect the outcome of the game, they still cheer because it makes them feel part of a team they believe in, and that makes them feel joyous and proud.
Kamala’s ability to excite and inspire will break through the walls of apathy, demoralization, and despair that kept Democratic-leaning unlikely voters from voting in 2016. That’s how Obama won, and that’s how Harris will win.
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Kamala2020 info and links are below!
Newpioneer has rounded up some highlights of her sponsored legislation here.
snowman3 has rounded up some more legislative highlights here.
Want to know more about her positions and plans? Her policy page is Our America.
Or go straight to an issue: quality, affordable health care for all, economic justice,raising teacher pay, combating the climate crisis, criminal justice reform, action on gun violence, a fair and just immigration system, LGBTQ+ equality, government for the people, debt-free college and student debt, gender equality, American leadership at home and abroad, and fighting for racial justice.
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This week’s schedule
Please volunteer! Come share your story about why you support Kamala!
This week’s schedule
Monday, July 22 — rflctammt
Thursday, July 25th — Cecelia S
Saturday, July 27th — Gay CA Democrat
Monday, July 29th —
Thursday, August 1—
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Upcoming Events —
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Group Guidelines
The Kamala2020 community group has been created to positively support Senator Kamala Harris, and not to engage in negativity towards other Democrats running in the 2020 primaries.
All should be made to feel welcomed here. What’s not welcomed here is petty bickering over any of our preferred candidates, or personal attacks on fellow Democrats. We’re not responsible for the actions of others who may offend, insult or attempt to sow discord and disunity — that’s on them.
What we are responsible for are our own words and actions — that’s 100% on us.
I’d like to ask all group members, as well as those dropping by who support or are interested in Kamala’s bid for the nomination, that we not respond to negativity from other campaign’s supporters with even more negativity. Let’s do better than our best and respond with respect, humor or try to hold our peace. Recipes and cat pics work, too 😃
Doing no harm costs us nothing... pie-fights will cost us everything.