I hope everyone will look at this article and that someone with the numbers will look at WI and the other states in the real mix to determine what we need to do.
The article starts with an analysis of both CA and TX and how they both create Electoral College problems for Democrats. Basically CA is becoming more Democratic every day but of course those surplus votes don't matter for the EC and that TX will probably get closer due to our booming economy and shifting demographics but still come up short.
“In 2016, Trump's victory hinged on three Great Lakes states he won by less than a point: Michigan (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (0.7 percent) and Wisconsin (0.8 percent). All three of these aging, relatively white states have some of the nation's highest shares of white voters without college degrees — a group trending away from Democrats over the long term. And the nonwhite share of the eligible electorate in each of the three has increased at only a quarter to a half of the rate it has surged in California, Texas and Nevada.”
SNIP
Of course we won each of those states in 2018 so every thing is fine, right? nope back to the article.
“But Trump could lose Michigan and Pennsylvania and still win the Electoral College, so long as he carries every other place he won in 2016. And Wisconsin didn't provide as clear a verdict in 2018. Even with favorable turnout in a "blue wave," Democrats won Wisconsin's governor's race only by a point and failed to gain a House seat. If enough Trump voters who sat out 2018 — particularly white working-class men — return to the polls in 2020, the Badger State could easily stay red.”
SNIP
The article then turns to FL acknowledging it has the 8th highest nonwhite citizens eligible to vote (albeit with a large population of Cubans) but it also replaces all those old white retirees from the snow states making it problematic to win. AZ unlike FL is a state where we won the Senate seat and has a very fast growing nonwhite population.
“Together, these six states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are best-positioned to decide which candidate reaches the magic 270 Electoral votes. That's not to say that other states won't be close: It's possible Trump could win Maine, Minnesota, Nevada or New Hampshire, and it's possible the Democratic nominee could win Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas. But if either scenario materializes, the election will be a blowout and the victor will likely have already won the "swing six" comfortably.”
“The ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated districts in the country.”
My first question is how many more votes do we need in Maine’s 2nd district and how many available retirees do we have with RVs do we have to move there? Also I forget if we won the district in Nebraska if we didn't how many more voters do we need there? Just kidding, kind of.
I know we all have our favorite candidate but for me this is all about getting rid of dt, full stop, period. My fear is that with all of the information and money Pasqual (sp?) or some group has had time to go through all these states and their data, social media etc and the reason he gave that teleprompter speech full of stoking white males is they have figured out the path to winning the EC and they don't care if they lose the popular vote by 6 million votes. They will do everything legal or illegal to divide us but we can not forget that in 2020 it is all about the EC.
The nymag.com has an article up based on the original articles also with this closing paragraph.
“This would again involve Trump threading the needle, but it’s not that big of a reach. I continue to think Democrats’ X factor is the pool of 2016 likely voters (some of whom turned out in 2018, and some of whom didn’t) who ultimately sat out the Trump-Clinton race or wasted a vote on third-party candidates or even a protest vote for the Republican, on grounds that Clinton had it won. The president clearly thinks (if he’s thinking at all) turning up the flames of white racial resentment can offset this advantage. If that’s based on credible evidence from Wisconsin, it’s time for Democrats to get seriously concerned”
I urge everyone to read the article over at MSNBC it also had a great display on the demographics.
Original article