Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper announced Thursday that he would challenge GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, a decision that gives Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer his long sought-after candidate after months of recruiting attempts.
Hickenlooper, who was seeking the Democratic presidential nomination until last week, had sounded utterly uninterested, if not downright hostile, to the idea of serving in the Senate for months, which is something he addressed in his announcement video. Hickenlooper told the audience, “Look, I’m a straight shooter. I’ve always said Washington was a lousy place for a guy like me who wants to get things done.” The former governor continued, “But this is no time to walk away from the table. I know changing Washington is hard, but I want to give it a shot.”
Gardner already had a challenging task ahead of him as he seeks re-election in a state that backed Hillary Clinton 48-43, and Hickenlooper’s campaign could further complicate things. Hickenlooper managed to win re-election 49-46 during the 2014 GOP wave even as Gardner was unseating Democratic incumbent Mark Udall 48-46, so the former governor has experience winning tough races.
However, Hickenlooper does have some potential liabilities. Hickenlooper left the governor’s office at the start of this year, and two recent Democratic polls found that, while he’s viewed positively by voters, he’s not exactly beloved. A July survey from Public Policy Polling for 314 Action Fund, a group that was recruiting Hickenlooper for the Senate race, gave him a modest 45-38 favorable score. A more recent survey from Global Strategy Group for former state Sen. Mike Johnston, who is one of the many Democrats who was already running for the Senate, gave the former governor a similar 46-42 favorable rating.
Both Democratic polls did find that both Donald Trump and Gardner were very unpopular and showed Hickenlooper beating the senator by double digits, so Hickenlooper still looks to be in much better shape than the incumbent. However, Gardner could gain ground if he can effectively attack the former governor, and his job will be easier if Hickenlooper begins the race only modestly liked.
Gardner also demonstrated during his 2014 race that he’s quite good at going on the attack while still maintaining a nice-guy image, which is a talent that could serve him again this time. Gardner is also a well-connected senator who served as the National Republican Senate Committee’s chair last cycle, so he’ll likely have all the resources he’ll need to go on the offensive.
Gardner also could benefit if Hickenlooper sticks to his old promise not to run negative TV ads. Hickenlooper has long detested negative campaigning, and he even stuck with his pledge to stay positive even during his tight 2014 campaign against Republican Bob Beauprez.
Hickenlooper’s allies at the Democratic Governors Association didn’t hesitate to attack Beauprez back then, and if Hickenlooper is the Democratic Senate nominee, major outside groups would once again make sure that his GOP foe doesn’t escape scrutiny. Still, if Hickenlooper sticks with his positive playbook in 2020 and refrains from going on the attack, he could give Gardner a bigger opening to boost his own image.
A number of other Democrats were already running for the Senate, and several have already said that they won’t defer to Hickenlooper. The aforementioned Johnston, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, state Sen. Angela Williams, and former state House Majority Leader Alice Madden previously said they’d keep running no matter what Hickenlooper did, and former Ambassador Dan Baer also said Thursday that he wouldn’t be going anywhere.
However, it’s going to be difficult for anyone to stop the well-known former governor from winning the Democratic nod. A July PPP survey for an unidentified client found Hickenlooper leading Romanoff 44-12, while no other candidates broke 4%. A Garin-Hart-Yang poll that was reportedly leaked by Schumer found Hickenlooper dominating with 61% of the vote, while Johnston was a distant second with 10%. It’s tough to get on the ballot in Colorado so some of Hickenlooper’s primary rivals may not end up facing him, but he’ll still likely benefit if enough candidates run and split whatever anti-Hickenlooper vote there is.
One prospective Democratic candidate did take her name out of contention, though. On Thursday, state Sen. Kerry Donovan announced that she would support Hickenlooper rather than run herself.
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