As you may know, Boris returned to London from Brussels with his little bit of paper with his new Withdrawal Agreement. He is up against a deadline of Halloween to get an agreement through but if he fails to get the plan through the Commons, meeting in an extra-ordinary Saturday session, he must ask for an extension under the “Benn Act”. He has declared that if the UK does not leave the EU on October 31, he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than ask for a further extension.
It looks like Boris will be spending his Sunday down on the family farm scouting out a suitable site for his corpse. The atmosphere is likely to be rather frosty, regardless of temperature as his brother Jo has stated he will step down at the General Election as he cannot stand being in Boris’s party any longer. Boris has branded his father an “uncooperative crusty”.
Boris Johnson's father Stanley Johnson said that being branded an "uncooperative crusty" by his son was a "tremendous compliment" as he joined Extinction Rebellion activists on the third day of protests.
Mr Johnson Snr spoke at an XR event in Trafalgar Square in front of a substantial crowd, days after the Prime Minister described the activists as "uncooperative crusties" and told them to abandon o
For Boris, the parliamentary arithmetic does not look good with his overall minority of 46. The critical number is 320 taking into account the Sinn Fein MPs who do not take their seats and the Speaker and his deputies who do not vote unless it is a tie. In that case, the Speaker votes for the status quo.
One critical group that has come out against his plan and are trying to persuade Tory MPs to reject it are the Northern Irish nutters in the DUP. They object to the customs border in effect being drawn down the Irish Sea.
The agreement brokered between the UK Government and the EU effectively puts a border down the Irish Sea and treats Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK.
DUP MP Sammy Wilson MP said Boris Johnson's "shouldn't be surprised" the party's 10 MPs won't be voting for the deal when MPs are asked to approve it on Saturday.
He said the Prime Minister's pride should not come before the best Brexit deal for the United Kingdom.
"This is an All-Ireland solution which will tie us tighter and tighter to the Irish economy than the UK economy. Sinn Fein will never vote to leave that... by going to the majority voting system, rather than the cross-community voting system, they will now have a veto which they will use," Mr Wilson told talkRADIO.
This effectively rules out some of the Tory MPs identified by the BBC as the targets of Boris’s charm offensive.
The prime minister is expected to focus his attention on winning over three groups to support his deal:
- Tory Brexiteers who have not yet backed a deal and repeatedly voted against former PM Theresa May's withdrawal agreement
- Twenty-three former Tory MPs who now sit as independents, including 21 Mr Johnson kicked out of the party last month after they rebelled against him in a bid to prevent a no-deal Brexit
- And a group of Labour MPs who have expressed a desire to back a deal but are concerned about protection for workers and the environment
The DUP may however have lost the support of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Little League of Empire Loyalists in the “European Research Group”. It looks like the threat of losing the party Whip and being unable to stand is having its effects.
Labour has some members representing strong leave areas who may cross to the government lobby in the vote but the Labour Party has imposed a three line whip. A leading “Momentumist” is saying that they should be expelled from the party if they do vote for the deal.
The courting of the 21 expelled from the party has not been terribly well organised by the Tory Whips.
The numbers are not looking good for Boris. The current number on the Conservative benches is 288, not all of who can be guaranteed to vote for.
Those definitely voting against will be the Scottish Nationalists (35), the Liberal Democrats (19) Plaid (4) and Green (1) making a total of 59 to which we must presumable add the DUP’s 10 to make 69
The Labour Party currently has 245 (not sure if this takes into account a resignation yesterday.) Not all of those can guaranteed to vote against but let’s assume a similar number of them will vote for as Tories against.
That takes the total probable NAYs to 314, 6 short of the target.
There are also the miscellaneous ex-Tories and ex-Labout members: the “Independent Group for Change” (5) and a group of other independents totalling 35.
The press has been hyping a “close race” but there is a further complication for Boris in the form of amendments being put down to his motion to pass the Agreement.
Former Conservative MP Oliver Letwin has tabled an amendment that would ensure the deadline is extended until the Brexit deal had passed each step in Parliament to become law.
Sir Oliver, who is among the MPs seeking to prevent a no-deal Brexit, said he did not want to "let the government off the hook".
Of course Boris may very well not follow through with his promise about ditches. On the other hand, he may have to relocate out of 10 Downing Street soon. I hope he has found a good upholsterer able to remove red wine stains.
The neighbour said they recorded the altercation from inside their flat out of concern for Symonds. [Carrie Symonds, his current mistress who lives with him in Downing Street] On the recording, heard by the Guardian, Johnson can be heard refusing to leave the flat and telling Symonds to “get off my fucking laptop” before there is a loud crashing noise.
Symonds is heard saying Johnson had ruined a sofa with red wine: “You just don’t care for anything because you’re spoilt. You have no care for money or anything.”
I hope to be off to the big march tomorrow so Pip Pip!