As the nomination fight follows the well worn path, with the angst of we are attacking each other, and the search for a white knight by some, the one myth that actually may have hurt some candidates was the idea that Super Tuesday with its new players would change the dynamic. Well that didn’t work out. Super Tuesday may indeed play a bigger role in determining the length of the contest, but that is pretty much its traditional role. Iowa has assumed its traditional role of the major winnow.
So lets talk Iowa.
Iowa can break very late and anything before Thanksgiving should only be used as a reference. This is even more true when the election is against an incumbent. The desire to beat Trump will magnify any nagging doubts. The 15% threshold Mathematically there are a possible six slots coming out of Iowa. Realistically there are at most four, and more likely three. As it stands right now it looks like four have a shot Biden/Warren Sanders/Buttigieg, but I’ll add two more who I think still have a shot if a long one Klobuchar/Harris.
Both Warren and Biden are polling above the threshold and Sanders and Buttigieg are close enough. What all of them have in common is money.
Biden has run more of a traditional front runner race, but has invested enough and has enough professional staff on the ground to be effective. However he has always had nagging doubts, whether from past runs, or his ability step in it, and to be honest if his time has passed. As alternatives have presented themselves those doubts have already been magnified. Against that he has held up very well so far and has been easily forgiven. He has been able to tap the well of good feelings people have for him. He does remain the clearest safe choice. Don’t discount the Rally Effect, Joe has the political personality that when attacked allows supporters to come to his support.
Warren has methodically built a campaign. She focused on Iowa early and often. She had built out a very good professional ground operation. A great retail communicator who has used that to her advantage. Her “I have a Plan for that” approach has really communicated that she knows what she is doing and is really reassuring. She has attracted many of the harder core activists, but is able to temper any policy doubts with personal appeal. However until recently this has all been done without anyone really coming after her. She has faced some standard “socialist” criticism but not much focused on her or her plans. How she handles that will be the telling key.
Sanders is well Sanders. A know quantity and really cannot shift perceptions and doesn’t want to. He had and has a good operation and dedicated supporters. His problem is that outside of the core he came in with, most others have drifted to others. But he has gone through the wars, people know what they will get. There is a persistent thought out there for some that he would have beat Trump.
Buttigieg is the new face. While he has not invested the same amount of time and effort to build an operation, he has the money to do so and is working hard. With a rising profile he will be getting a much closer look, his goal will be not to disappoint. It is really hard to go much deeper with Mayor Pete yet as opinions haven’t settled on him yet. While his intelligence and manner is attractive, His more recent harder edge has not played through. He could be a big factor, but in his chosen lane experience plays a big role.
Harris got caught in the Super Tuesday is the race. She spent to much of her initial surge elsewhere and is now playing catch up. She still has enough money and time left to correct that. Her basic appeal remains, if she can generate another moment that appeal could come roaring back and she is now working to position herself to take advantage of it. I don’t think that can be discounted. There are a lot of voters who want a real fighter to go up against Trump, if she is given that opportunity again she more then most can turn it around.
Klobuchar has always bet on Iowa. It was always her only path. But she is pragmatic in all things and knew going in it would be a long slog for her. So she has built an organization in Iowa that has staff but relies on volunteers. Her organization is built to surge. Like Obama sitting right next door she is set up to bring her home state organization down when she needs it. Her recent infusion of cash has also come at the right time. She has spent years as the De Facto Democratic Senator for Iowa. Doing the party and candidate fundraisers, going to the Farm Bureau meeting and partnering with Grassley on bills of Iowa concern. That is why she has the most endorsements from former and current legislators, including those that were former Republicans. Right now under the radar you are more likely to be canvased by the Klobuchar campaign if you went to the Republican caucus then the Democratic one. The dissatisfied GOP voter is probably the largest pool of new Democratic caucus participants in Iowa right now (as small as it is).
Iowa is a lot more fluid right now then polls seem to indicate. Even the frontrunners are not that far above the threshold to be safe and stumbles could open the door to the others. Nobody with the exception of Sanders can say they have solidified a significant part of their support. Indeed when looking at firm support in the Polls you have to factor Sanders in that and drop just about everybody else. Caucus math plays a huge part in this and remember this is at the precinct level. If I was guessing right now I would expect one of the candidates from the “Moderate” lane to “win” Iowa. It is just easier for the Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar lane to consolidate. But that is also the lane that could surprise.