As the curtain rises Wednesday on the historic impeachment hearings exploring Donald Trump's extortion of Ukraine, the key questions facing the country are whether facts still matter to a solid majority of Americans and if, in turn, that could move the needle for Republican lawmakers in any meaningful way.
The conventional wisdom is that Trump's base of support among GOP voters is simply too strong to falter, and accordingly the vast majority of Republican lawmakers in both the lower and upper chambers will fall in line with that unflinching approval. That may prove true, but it's certainly not a given. For the next several weeks, instead of Americans tuning into one channel or another that exclusively airs segments designed to reinforce their personal views, the nation will be treated to a totally unique phenomenon in the Trump era: roadblock coverage on more than half a dozen networks and cable channels of a singular political drama gripping the country. Those outlets may cover it differently, especially Fox News. But as of 10 AM ET Wednesday, every outlet will be obligated to acknowledge the historic occasion of the impeachment proceedings against Trump and the implications for the nation.
Democrats enter into this arena with a distinct advantage: They are exploring a cohesive narrative with a cogent fact pattern and plethora of supporting evidence. For the most part, House and Senate Democrats will be unified in their approach to the hearings and the messaging they advance in tandem with the spectacle. That isn't to say that Democratic messaging will be perfect, but it will almost surely be coherent.
On the other side of the aisle, Republicans face multiple challenges, almost all of which center on Trump himself. First, the facts are against Trump, which is exactly why Republicans have repeatedly tried to focus on anything and everything but the substance of Trump's actions. GOP lawmakers will surely try to divert attention away from Trump by offering whataboutisms focused on Joe and Hunter Biden and even conspiracy theories about 2016 election interference. They will complain furiously about the unfairness of the process and the supposed indignities foisted up on them by House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff. And they will likely do deep dives into the weeds of who talked to whom, and where and when, and how minute inconsistencies or ambiguities somehow undermine the overarching narrative that Trump betrayed the entire country for his personal political gain.
It's all a smokescreen designed to distract and obfuscate, and the Democrats' job will be to keep most Americans focused on the glaring truths of the bigger picture: That the testimonies of multiple career public servants and Trump appointees are simply further evidence of Trump's own stated desire on a July 25 phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky for Ukraine to open investigations of his political rivals.
But the facts aren't the only things working against Republicans. The GOP's worst enemy lies within.
Trump's goal of total and complete personal exoneration is not the same as those of Republicans on the Hill who are almost singularly focused on electoral survival, and the divisions on either side of Pennsylvania Avenue are just the beginning of the fissures among Republicans. For one thing, electoral survival in the House is a completely different animal from electoral survival in the Senate; and further, the reelection considerations of a GOP senator from a reliably red state is likely informed by the polar opposite calculation of a Republican senator from a swing state. Thus, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham's unsuccessful bid several weeks ago to produce a sign-on letter pledging the Republican Senate would never convict Trump, even as many GOP senators embraced their roles as future jurors as a way to avoid commenting altogether on the mountain of evidence piling up against Trump.
Back at the White House, the varying personal considerations among Trump's top aides and cabinet officials aren't any different. Within the West Wing, a power struggle has broken out between acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and White House counsel Pat Cipollone, who are at odds over future strategy while blaming each other for past missteps. And then there's cabinet officials such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, and Vice President Mike Pence who all share the basic goal of personally surviving the impeachment storm enveloping Team Trump but no unified means to achieving that end. They all have different legal exposures, different lawyers, and likely different views on the best course of action. In other words, every person for themselves.
Finally, Trump himself will allow no disloyalty, no dissent, and nothing that even slightly tarnishes his image even if it’s employed on the path to political survival. That alone poses a major hurdle for anyone trying to defend Trump since he is so blatantly guilty of wrongdoing. Admitting that the July 25 call might be not have been ‘perfect’ but that it also wasn’t impeachable might be as good a strategy as any, except Trump. Think about, for instance, Nancy Pelosi allowing Democrats in 2018 to run against her speakership in districts that required candidates to keep a certain independence. That will never ever happen under Trump. So any Republican who chooses to save themselves at the expense of crossing Trump will be in for a world of hurt. Given a choice between absolute loyalty to the death and potential political survival with a peppering of perceived disloyalty, Trump will choose the former every time. Disloyalty is its own kind of death for Trump.
All of this—Trump, a highly dysfunctional West Wing, the conflicting political needs of various lawmakers and administration officials, and no unified impeachment strategy—adds up to a chaotic and explosive political environment that holds far more potential pitfalls for Republicans than Democrats.
But when the curtain closes on the impeachment hearings, the main question will be whether public opinion shifted at all, by how much, and whether any faction of Republicans—no matter how small—is actually moved by conscience or political necessity to abandon Trump and live up to their oaths of office. Any GOP defections in the House could provide an opening for a more consequential repudiation in the Senate, even if Trump isn’t actually removed from office. If, however, Republicans stick entirely together in both chambers, Trump will be able to dismiss the whole inquiry as a partisan sham, leaving voters to literally pick sides between completely dissonant viewpoints.
And if Republicans ultimately cling to Trump like a monolith, will voters, viewing the bulk of the evidence against him, conclude that as many GOP lawmakers as possible need to pay a price for betraying the country in support of Trump’s corrupt leadership?
The next several weeks and months promise to bring more of the relentless political tumult that has been the hallmark of Trump’s tenure and exhausted many Americans. Democrats, more than likely, will benefit if they are simply able to offer the nation some semblance of sanity in the midst of Trump’s mayhem.