GOP pollster says focus will shift to independent voters ahead of 2020
(Dec 2018) "I think the congressional races are overblown. It was a
run of the suburbs in the country," Goeas told Hill TV's Joe Concha … "I think going into the next election cycle, I think the thing that will be the focus is not the suburbs, but the independent voters," he continued.
"They're the ones who keep going back and forth and, again, make the difference in the wider electorate," he said.
Independent voters are poised to play a major role in the 2020 contests with the country becoming increasingly polarized. thehill.com/...
We need to convince 8% of Indys to swing to Dems and dishearten 9% of Swing Rs into staying home.
Data Note: A Look At Swing Voters Leading Up To The 2020 Election
More than one year out from the general election, there are many factors that could influence voters’ decisions to either vote for
President Trump or the Democratic nominee or even stay home on November 3, 2020. These factors include the characteristics of the eventual Democratic nominee, views of President Trump, and how motivated voters are feeling about the election. The latest analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, in collaboration with the Cook Political Report, finds that while a large share of voters are already firm about how they plan to vote in the 2020 presidential election (63%), there is a still a substantial share (30%) who say they have not made their minds up. With three in ten votes still up for grabs, this data note examines the demographics of swing voters: those who either report that they are undecided about their vote in 2020 or are leaning towards a candidate but haven’t made up their minds yet. It also explores the policy issues that could swing these voters to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee…
It is important to note that not all “swing voters” could potentially change their vote to support the other party’s candidate. About half of swing voters (16% of all voters) are truly persuadable. These voters either say they are undecided about who they plan to vote for (8%) or say that while they are probably going to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee, there is a chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate (8%). The other share of swing voters (14% of all voters) say that they are probably going to vote for either President Trump or the Democratic nominee and there is no chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate. While they say there is no chance they will vote for the other party’s candidate, they could choose to not vote at all. In other words, these folks may not change their minds to support another candidate, but if they don’t like what they see from the party they like, they could just stay home…
Who Are The 2020 Swing Voters? Nearly two-thirds of voters say they have already made up their minds about which candidate they plan to vote for. About one-third of voters (34%) say they are “definitely” going to vote for the Democratic nominee while three in ten (29%) say they are “definitely” going to vote for President Trump. This leaves three in ten voters as the crucial voting block
known commonly as “swing voters.” This group of voters either say they are “probably” going to vote for President Trump (9%), “probably” going to vote for the Democratic nominee (13%), or say they are undecided about how they will vote (8%). [Last bolding mine.] www.kff.org/…
But who are these people and how can they be Indy’s at this point?
Overall, swing voters tend to:
- be younger: one-fourth are between 18 and 29 years old (27%)
- say they have a moderate political ideology (56%)
- be less likely to say they pay “a lot of attention” to what is going on in national government and politics
- be much less likely to say the outcome of the presidential election matters a lot than decided voters. [Cut and paste summary statements from above article.]
So what are Dems & Lefty groups doing with this data?
Democratic groups are working to chip away at Trump’s advantages. Priorities USA, a liberal super PAC, has launched an early digital ad campaign in battleground states including Florida to argue that economic growth under Trump is not benefiting all Americans.
The group’s research shows Florida’s independents favor Democrats over Republicans by 45 percent to 28 percent. One in four could be persuaded to vote for either party’s candidate, according to its analysis.
In a state with tight elections, Priorities USA Chairman Guy Cecil told reporters last month that winning even half of these voters could be “a difference maker.”
...Local Democrats in Pinellas are already canvassing for like-
minded independents, as well as Democrats who do not vote regularly...
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows independent voters nationally rank healthcare and jobs as their top issues. Democrats are closest to sharing their priorities, although they consider climate most important. Republicans are most concerned about border security and government-funded services for illegal immigrants. www.reuters.com/...
Quick WaPo summary--
An early look at the 2020 class of swing voters (July 2019)
- Most up-for-grabs registered voters lean toward a party, but they are more likely to identify as moderate and independent.
- They are significantly less likely to approve of Trump, but have complicated views on his handling of the economy
- A majority of on-the-fence voters say they would at least consider voting for Trump in at least one of the match-ups — but they are more likely to choose a Democrat in at least one head-to-head.
- Perhaps surprisingly, on-the-fence voters are spread about evenly across different demographic groups. www.washingtonpost.com/...
A year out, there are four scenarios for 2020 elections in the article below.
We want #2, where Dems hold the House, win the Senate, and win the White House.
This, I think, is the real point of the public impeachment hearings: to sway Indy voters.
Dems are know Trump is a dangerous crook.
Rs are joined at the hip to Trump.
Convincing Indy voters that Trump is a criminal should be the goal of the impeachment hearings. They are the jury we need to influence.
Not House Rs. They are a lost cause.
Not Senate Rs. They are terrified of Fox viewers and Trump voters.
How voters feel about economy, impeachment will decide which party rules in 2021 (Nov 4, 2019)
“The economy is where conservative and swing voters are giving him a lot of credit and consider giving him another term,” says Democratic pollster Molly Murphy of ALG Research.
Were the economy to slow and veer closer toward a recession, however, the president would lose his trump card. Trump won independent voters by 4 points in 2016 (46-42 percent), according to the exit polls, but he could lose them by a dozen points (54-42 percent) in 2020, similar to the Democratic performance in the midterm elections. The president’s unwavering base of GOP voters would stay with him, but not be enough to win in enough states.
For this outcome, a vote by House Democrats to impeach the president would have to have little electoral consequence. That means the party would need to have managed the investigation effectively and simultaneously focused on other issues, including health care and wage inequality. The process also might have drawn support from some Republicans wary of defending the president after countless allegations of abuse of power. www.rollcall.com/…