I remember the 1976 primary, and it is giving me a strong sense of deja vu.
When the primaries began, Carter was basically an unknown nationally. He’d been a state legislator and governor, but had no where near the profile of the D.C. establishment candidates, such as Sen. Jackson of Washington, Rep. Mo Udall of Arizona, etc. However, in the wake of the Watergate impeachment, Carter ran as a Washington outsider, centrist, and reformer, and this made him seem a fresh alternative to his establishment rivals in the minds of voters. Ultimately, the more liberal candidates, including Gov. Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown of California split the liberal vote, and Carter was able to pick up wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Is history repeating itself?
Could be. Pete Buttigieg has topped recent polls in Iowa and New Hampshire as Warren and Bernie continue to split the support of those attracted to their very similar ideas. And Buttigieg is not wilting under the pressure of his rise in the polls. To the contrary, Buttigieg (and Klobuchar) emerged as the media consensus winner of yesterday’s debate, in part because of his ability to parry the ineffective attacks the D.C. insider candidates tried to make on his asserted “inexperience.” Two examples:
First, when Buttigieg was asked if he had enough experience, he responded:
BUTTIGIEG: Because I have the right experience to take on Donald Trump. I get that it's not traditional establishment Washington experience, but I would argue we need something very different right now.
In order to defeat this president, we need somebody who can go toe-to-toe who actually comes from the kinds of communities that he's been appealing to. I don't talk a big game about helping the working class while helicoptering between golf courses with my name on them. I don't even golf.
As a matter of fact, I never thought I'd be on a Forbes magazine list, but they did one of all the candidates by wealth, and I am literally the least wealthy person on this stage.
I also wore the uniform of this country and know what is at stake in the decisions that are made in the Oval Office and in the Situation Room. And I know how to bring people together to get things done. I know that from the perspective of Washington, what goes on in my city might look small, but frankly, where we live, the infighting on Capitol Hill is what looks small. The usual way of doing business in Washington is what looks small.
This response resulted in a major concession by Klobuchar, the other big winner of the night:
MITCHELL: Senator Klobuchar, you've said this of Mayor Buttigieg, quote, "Of the women on the stage, do I think that we would be standing on that stage if we had the experience he had? No, I don't. Maybe we're held to a different standard." Senator, what did you mean by that?
KLOBUCHAR: First of all, I've made very clear I think that Pete is qualified to be up on this stage, and I am honored to be standing next to him.
Then, when Tulsi Gabbard attacked Buttigieg, This exchange occurred:
GABBARD: But I want to get back to Pete Buttigieg and his comments about experience. Pete, you'll agree that the service that we both have provided to our country as veterans by itself does not qualify us to serve as commander-in-chief. I think the most recent example of your inexperience in national security and foreign policy came from your recent careless statement about how you as president would be willing to send our troops to Mexico to fight the cartels. ...
BUTTIGIEG: So I've got to respond to that. I know that it's par for the course in Washington to take remarks out of context, but that is outlandish even by the standards of today's politics.
GABBARD: Are you saying that you didn't say that?
BUTTIGIEG: I was talking about U.S.-Mexico cooperation. We've been doing security cooperation with Mexico for years, with law enforcement cooperation and a military relationship that could continue to be developed with training relationships, for example. Do you seriously think anybody on this stage is proposing invading Mexico?
GABBARD: That's not what I said. That's not what I said.
BUTTIGIEG: I'm talking about building up -- I'm talking about building up alliances. And if your question is about experience, let's also talk about judgment. One of the foreign leaders you mentioned meeting was Bashar al-Assad. I have in my experience, such as it is, whether you think it counts or not since it wasn't accumulated in Washington, enough judgment that I would not have sat down with a murderous dictator like that.
To sum it up, Mayor Pete kicked Tulsi’s butt in a way that other candidates have not done.
The bottom line is that Buttigieg’s campaign is surging, he’s running as an outsider, he’s handling the “experience” issue with aplomb, and it appears that other candidates are siphoning off each other’s support.
In this highly splintered primary occuring in the wake of an impeachment proceeding, which is reminiscent of 1976 both in the number of candidates and the distrust of D.C., we may again see a D.C. outsider get the nod.