Looking at state by state primary polling I have been gaming out scenarios. The easy answer is that Biden squeaks by, gets the nomination, etc.
But if his support remains at a soft 30-35%, there is another scenario.
I am a Warren supporter, so this is hard for me to write, but it looks like she has fallen to 3rd or even 4th in general behind Biden, Bernie and Pete.
I am assuming that after Super Tuesday, if she has not acquired significant delegates, she will pragmatically endorse Bernie (if he has more delegates than she has) to continue the fight.
(Ditto, Bernie could do the same, but his support seems pretty steady).
So lets say Biden holds at a solid 30% of delegates.
Pete manages 15%.
Bernie and warren combine for 35%.
Biden could court Pete as his Veep, seek support from Supers and others, and cobble together some sort of support at the convention.
Or,
Bernie could court Pete, make him Veep, and have over 50% of the delegates instantly.
(Again note that Warren could do this too if she is leading over Bernie).
Why would Pete agree to the Bernie ticket and not the Biden ticket despite being closer to Biden in philosophy?
Both candidates due to age make a pretty good chance Pete will be the nominee in 2024 as sitting Vice President.
a) if there is no convention fight or brokered convention that is much better for the party.
b) Bernie was a mayor, and there is perhaps some affinity.
c) By being Bernie’s running mate, Pete inherits Bernie’s progressive credentials while maintaining a foot in the centrist Dem camp. He becomes a nearly perfect candidate with 4 years as Veep under his belt. (And if he gets 8 years, more power to Bernie!)