I feel that Democrats need a presidential candidate who will expand the electorate and increase turnout in 2020 since Democrats tend to win elections when they are able to expand the electorate, while Republicans tend to win elections when the electorate is reduced by either Democratic voter suppression or lack of Democratic voter enthusiasm or both. For example, in 1992 turnout was up 5.5 percent over 1988, whereas in 2000 turnout was down 4.0 percent from 1992, and in 2008 turnout was up 7.0 percent from 2000, while in 2016 turnout was down 2.5 percent from 2008
I believe that a Democratic nominee who tries to appeal mainly to white non-college educated voters and older African American voters will likely not have a lot of appeal to younger voters of color and occasional or marginal voters who the Democrats need expand to the electorate in order to win. I think that white non-college educated voters as a group are effectively a lost cause for Democrats and older African American voters will vote for the Democratic nominee regardless of who he or she is. Therefore, I think that nominating a candidate who tries to appeal mainly to those two groups will not likely expand the electorate enough for Democrats to win.
Democrats also should be sure that their GOTV effort is effective in 2020. One problem. among many, that Democrats had in several key Rust Belt states in 2016 was that much of the Democratic GOTV effort, as much as 20 percent in certain cases, contacted voters who were not going to vote for Democrats. That can't happen again in 2020 if Democrats are going to win.
Many activists and those who think about and discuss politics on a regular basis are driven to vote by policy details and a coherent consistent ideology. However, a significant portion of the American public doesn't hold a coherent ideology and is driven to vote by other non-ideological factors, such as a candidate's appearance, charisma, affability, ability to inspire, ability to connect with or relate to people, etc., rather than by ideology and specific policy details.
Accordingly, I think that Democrats need a presidential nominee in 2020 who is a fresh candidate (read: without a lot of baggage) who is charismatic and who can clearly articulate an easy to understand message and vision for the future of the country as well as one who can connect with a significant portion of the American electorate, including young people of color and other marginal voters who are predisposed to align with the Democratic vision for the country.
If one looks at the successful Democratic nominees over the last one hundred years who first attained the presidency by election, Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, one sees that they, in general, had key traits in common, such as charisma, good oratory skills, and the ability to inspire and connect with people, with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter. However, Carter had certain other qualities, such as honesty and being a Washington outsider, that the American public were really looking for at the time shortly after the traumas of Vietnam and Watergate. I think that those key traits are invaluable in winning presidential elections.
Also, I think it's a mistake to view the electorate, as the corporate media appears to do quite often, as essentially a fixed pool of voters that doesn't vary much from election to election, and that the way to win the electoral college is to attempt appeal to the relatively small group of potentially persuadable voters in key states who might vote for one party or the other in any given election. The pool of truly persuadable voters has become so small that there simply aren't enough of them to make targeting them an effective use of resources.
I believe that a better way to view the electorate is as one that has a very large pool of untapped potential Democratic voters (about 100 million), and that a much more effective use of resources is to energize one's base and a large portion of the millions of potential voters who don’t vote who are already predisposed to vote for Democrats, and to get those people to cast ballots and become regular voters.
People may differ on which of the current candidates is the one who can best generate and inspire the enthusiasm required to expand the Democratic electorate, and I realize that candidates with the qualities and skills of John Kennedy and Barack Obama certainly don’t come around every presidential cycle, but if Democrats are to win in 2020, I think it’s worth occasionally taking the time to view the candidates through that type of lens instead of only viewing them through a detailed policy lens on which activists tend to fixate.
I’m not discussing an “electability” lens where one can see if others will vote for a candidate, but a lens where one can see if a candidate has the qualities of charisma, inspiration, of being able to communicate a vision for the future effectively, and of being able to relate to and connect with potential voters, all of which are qualities which will tend to motivate people and expand the Democratic electorate.
I realized in 1984, when polls indicated that about two-thirds of the American public agreed with Walter Mondale’s policies but, nevertheless, Mondale went on to lose 49 states, that ultimately in the general election it’s not really the policy details that determine who wins the presidential election.