More questions than answers as stories emerge about whether Houti rebels used armed drones or something, something Iranian cruise missiles against the Saudi oil refineries.
Recalling the recent minor attacks on oil tankers, there seems to be some urgency in creating a reason to wag-dogs to distract from continuing Trumpian domestic failures. Whether it’s about Israel’s elections or the US running some ironic proxy war for Saudi Arabia, it will get noisier.
(Bloomberg) -- The Trump administration sought to offer new evidence to back its claim that Iran conducted the attack on major Saudi Arabian oil facilities, saying the munitions used in the strikes were well beyond the capabilities of the Houthi rebels who claimed responsibility.
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U.S. and Saudi officials say they’re gathering more evidence that Iran was behind the attacks -- some of it on the ground in Saudi Arabia -- that will be released in due time. Iran’s Foreign Ministry described Pompeo’s comments blaming the Islamic Republic as “blind and fruitless accusations.”
According to U.S. government information, there were 19 points of attack at state-owned Saudi Aramco’s crude-processing facility at Abqaiq and the Khurais oil field, all on the north or northwest-facing sides -- suggesting that the weaponry used came from that direction. Iraq lies to the north, and the U.S. in the past has accused Iran of stashing explosives with affiliated militias in the country. Yemen, by contrast, is hundreds of miles to the south.
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2/ The conflict btwn Saudi Arabia and Yemen roughly dates from the 1932 founding of Saudi Arabia, when the new kingdom took territory from Yemen in a war set off by a border dispute. The Saudis has attempted to influence Yemeni affairs every since.
3/ The Houthis are a group of Shia tribes in northern Yemen who practice a distinct form of Islam called Zaidism. In the 1980s, the Saudis began a campaign to push Sunni Wahabism into Houthi areas, creating massive friction with Houthi communities.
4/ Saudi Arabia sent Wahhabi settlers into Houthi areas to try to dilute Zaidism and increase Saudi influence in north Yemen. The Houthi resistance to the Saudis, and their patron governments in the Yemeni capital, grew and grew.
5/ In the 2000s, Saudi backed Yemeni governments carried out 6 separate wars against the now rebelling Houthis. Bush opposed most of these wars, believing the anti-Houthi campaigns to be doing more harm than good, especially as the Houthis began to reach out to Iran for help.
6/ Over the course of these wars, the Houthi military capabilities grew, and by 2010 they were the most battle tested army in Yemen. In 2015 they successfully marched on the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and Saudi Arabia and UAE initiated a full fledged war against the Houthis.
7/ Since 2015, there have been atrocities committed by both sides. Casualties are hard to track, but it could be that 100,000 Yemenis have died in the war, and the resulting humanitarian disaster has resulted in another 100,000 children dying of starvation or disease.
8/ The cholera outbreak (the result of water treatment plants being destroyed) is the worst in recorded world history. Houthis refuse to let food & medicine reach contested areas. Saudis drop bombs on hospitals and school buses. Bottom line - it's the ugliest war on the planet.
9/ Over time, the Houthis have turned to Iran for more and more help. The Iranians don't have a command and control relationship with Houthis, but their influence grows every day the war continues. Houthi drones likely come from Iran.
10/ Over time, a dangerous game of escalating behavior has developed. Saudis kill a bunch of Houthi civilians, then the Houthis launch an attack in Saudi Arabia. The latest attack on the Saudi refinery follows a Saudi attack on Dhamar prison which killed 100 people.
11/ Bottom line: the Saudis sowed the seeds of this mess. They marginalized the Houthis in the 80s and thru the 2000s wars. They bungled the prosecution of the post 2015 conflict. Houthis/Iranians have blood on their hands too, but the U.S. should not be a part of this disaster.
Shouldn’t a precondition of considering being a proxy warrior for Saudi Arabia especially against Iran be the release of unredacted pages discussing Saudi involvement in 9/11.
The alleged Saudi role in the September 11 attacks gained new attention after two former U.S. senators, co-chairmen of the Congressional Inquiry into the attacks, told CBS in April 2016 that the redacted 28 pages of the Congressional Inquiry's report refer to evidence of Saudi Arabia's substantial involvement in the execution of the attacks,[1][2][3] and calls renewed to have the redacted pages released. 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens.[4]
In July 2016, the U.S. government released a document, compiled by Dana Lesemann and Michael Jacobson,[11] known as "File 17", which contains a list naming three dozen people, including Fahad al-Thumairy, Omar al-Bayoumi, Osama Bassnan, and Mohdhar Abdullah, which connects Saudi Arabia to the hijackers. According to the former Democratic US Senator Bob Graham, “Much of the information upon which File 17 was written was based on what’s in the 28 pages.”[12]
The Saudi government has long denied any connection.[13] Relatives of victims have tried to use the courts to hold Saudi royals, banks, or charities responsible, but these efforts have been thwarted partly by a 1976 law giving foreign governments immunity.[6] According to Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of political science, following the 11 September attacks the so-called "Saudi policy of promoting terrorism and funding hatred" faced strong criticism by several "influential policy-makers and think-tanks in Washington".[14]
The US government has actively collaborated with the Saudis in suppressing the revelation of evidence of the Saudi government's responsibility for the attacks, denying FOIA requests and supplying inside information to the lawyers representing the Saudis involved. Graham characterises the strategy as not a 'cover up' but "aggressive deception".[8]
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