Checking the polling sites today for the latest on the primary races, January Polling/Democratic Primaries.
We are getting to the time in the process where things are beginning to crystallize to the point some general observations can be made about the state of the Democratic field.
Because there is no charismatic newcomer that has hearts all a twitter as we saw with Obama, Dean before him and the surprising rise of Bernie in 2016, this election primary season is more typical in many ways and therefore somewhat easier to forecast what may be coming.
Some trends are beginning to harden and I don’t see anything on the political horizon that will alter them much before we get to Super Tuesday on March 3rd. The top three Democratic candidates are well known to the public so it is unlikely there will be any dramatic shifts brought on by new revelations or policy additions that would elevate/decimate a candidate in the run up to March. Here are some of those trends:
- Biden has a comfortable national lead that will be hard to dislodge until the progressive coalition chooses either Sanders or Warren. Right now Sanders has started to pull away and I suspect that this be fully realized if he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire.
- Biden’s lead is solid and holding despite some bumps. He will not benefit as much from the Buttigieg or Klobuchar defections as Sanders will in the crossover from Warren. Also, Buttigieg isn’t going anywhere. He has a boat load of money and is using this to build his brand for the future. Be it politics or business, he can write his own ticket coming out of this. The Iran situation could be a wash for Biden. By that I mean he could benefit from foreign policy wariness as a stabilizing influence, yet take criticism for his part in history that arguably led to those events.
A prediction based on these trends is that it will be Biden and Sanders left standing at a brokered Democratic convention this summer ((not the party bosses in a back room style brokered, but “a mutual agreement arising out of the desire to not alienate impassioned Bernie voters causing Democrats to lose” style brokered).
Disclaimer: I have already stated in an earlier diary that I fully believe Sanders will win the nomination.