As we enter the week where the Senate will try Donald Trump for impeachment, let us not forget why they are doing everything in their power to defend Trump, and in the process willing to sacrifice their Party’s so-called reverence for the Constitution, their Party’s image of being the better one for respecting law and justice, and perhaps even their own incumbent seats.
Because they put their own long-term viability as an entire Party on the line to get Trump, and now keep Trump, in office.
Because of Trump, the Republican Party is likely lost to large sections of the minority vote, perhaps forever. Black Americans by-and-large see Trump as racist; as a voting bloc, they do not look to the Republican Party to address issues such as minority poverty, police brutality and racial profiling, and the mass incarceration where African Americans are incarcerated at 5 times the rate of whites. The Republican Party has no discernible platform on which to appeal to the Black vote, without numerous policies under Trump directly contradicting them.
Then of course there is the disastrous impact Trump has had on the Latinx and Hispanic communities. The Trump administration’s forced detention, aggressive ICE raids and deportations, the poor acknowledgement and now his position against the settlement of refugees and asylum seekers, and his overall rhetoric demonizing this growing demographic, are all just a tip of the iceberg with him. But look at the Republican Party’s own autopsy on it’s failed 2012 Presidential campaign. They knew that if they did not make significant investments in reaching out to Hispanic Americans and other minorities, the Party would “shrink to its core constituencies only.” They have gone in just that direction.
year |
% of Presidential vote Non-white |
% of Non-White for republican |
% of Republican’s Popular Vote |
2008 |
26 |
18.3 |
4.57 |
2012 |
28 |
17.9 |
4.48 |
2016 |
30 |
20.7 |
5.17 |
As the % of non-white voters in each Presidential race increases, so too does the percentage of that same group voting for the Republican candidate.
But as a voting bloc, Republicans still only get only about 5% of their popular vote from the non-white voters.
Thanks to these few years under Trump, the likelihood that his Presidency will motivate more minority voters is quite high, while the likelihood it does much to claim their numbers for the Republican Party, is rather quite low.
There is also women voters, where women’s rights have seen a dramatic increase in attacks by the Republican Party since Trump was elected. In particular, his picks of Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court are likely the primary catalysts to the most intense attacks on Roe v. Wade since the ruling. How is that helping the Republican Party in its longterm appeal for women voters? Well, let this recent announcement that Planned Parenthood is spending $45 million in support of Democratic candidates be the answer there. There is now the issue of the Equal Rights Amendment, which was recently ratified by Virginia. Will the Republican Party have an answer that values women, or sets them back even further?
Then there is Trump’s embrace of the fossil fuel industry, and his attacks on renewable energies and the environment. This brings down his and the Republican Party’s appeal to younger voters, who are increasingly becoming a more relevant voting group, while also being more involved in climate change activism. While the Democratic Party has many values and leaders that already line up with these young voters, it remains to be seen how the Republican Party can really convince them that they and Trump would be the best for their values and interests.
On the other hand. It is true that, with some demographics, Trump has certainly helped the Republican Party make inroads. White Evangelicals, 2nd Amendment die-hards, and the uninformed, low-education voters, for example.
However, it is easy to see that, with most of these demographics that have really rallied around Trump — the Republican Party was already well-represented. It is hard to argue that with Trump’s policies, the Republican Party has done all that much to broaden their voting base, as opposed to simply baking the support in further. Whether that actually helps the Republican Party’s longterm chances to remain viable is up for debate.
The Republican Party made a choice: to become more inclusive and address its weaknesses with minority, women, and young voters, as even its own Party’s autopsy prescribed, or fall back on its core constituencies that have allowed it to maintain a pervasive grip on this country’s political system.
With Trump, they gambled on the latter. And if the Trump gamble fails, they stand to lose everything.