Option 1: Bernie Sanders wrapped up his ‘We did very well’ speech in Iowa a day and a half ago, and we’re still scratching our heads about just how well. 538’s prognostications suggest this might come down to a split-decision with Sanders winning the plurality of votes and Buttigieg sending more delegates to the state caucus later this Spring. If Sanders actually wins Iowa outright, their model claims his chance of winning the majority of pledged delegates overall jumps from 48% to 64%.
Option 2: Bernie Sanders wrapped up his ‘We did very well’ speech in Iowa a day and a half ago by almost cracking himself up. When you can’t thank your volunteers with a victory speech, the least you can do is leave them with a chuckle. Sanders’ humor can be a high-wire act, never more so than what looked like a spontaneous homage to another candidate from Vermont, 16 years before:
Did you think he was gonna scream when his voice cracked?
And now it is on to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, California, and Onward to Victory!
I left the entire speech here so, please, feel free to rewind to the beginning and listen while you peruse related polling after the bump...
And now it is on to New Hampshire…
There are two tracking polls in the field. One looks good for Sanders, the other, great. First the good. The Boston Globe/Suffolk poll looks similar to yesterday's edition with Buttigieg eating into Biden’s support.
- Sanders: 24 (2/4)→ 24 (2/5)
- Buttigieg: 11 (2/4)→ 15 (2/5)
- Biden: 18 (2/4)→ 15 (2/5)
- Warren: 13 (2/4)→ 10 (2/5)
- Klobuchar: 6 (2/4)→ 6 (2/5)
- Gabbard: 5 (2/4)→ 5 (2/5)
- Steyer: 4 (2/4)→ 5 (2/5)
- Yang: 3 (2/4)→ 3 (2/5)
The WHDH/Emerson tracking poll looks even better (not to mention, a rosier outlook for the Mayor Pete fans in the house). I include the rounded numbers for Monday and Tuesday, more precise numbers for today.
- Sanders: 29 (2/3)→ 32 (2/4)→ 32.4 (2/5)
- Buttigieg: 13 (2/3)→ 12 (2/4)→ 16.5 (2/5)
- Biden: 14 (2/3)→ 13 (2/4)→ 13.4 (2/5)
- Klobuchar: 8 (2/3)→ 12 (2/4)→ 11.0 (2/5)
- Warren: 12 (2/3)→ 13 (2/4)→ 10.7 (2/5)
- Yang: 7 (2/3)→ 5 (2/4)→ 5.8 (2/5)
- Gabbard: 7 (2/3)→ 4 (2/4)→ 5.5 (2/5)
- Steyer: 8 (2/3)→ 5 (2/4)→ 1.5 (2/5)
Nevada…
Alas, the most recent polls out of Nevada are almost a month old. The January 11th USA Today/Suffolk poll showed an even closer race than the FOX poll the week before (Biden+1 v. Biden +6)
- Joe Biden — 19.4%
- Bernie Sanders — 17.6%
- Elizabeth Warren — 10.6%
- Pete Buttigieg — 8.2%
- Tom Steyer — 7.6%
- Andrew Yang — 4.4%
- Amy Klobuchar — 3.6%
- Tulsi Gabbard — 1.2%
South Carolina…
The February 2nd Post and Courier poll showed a tightening race, with Sanders and Steyer pulling within reach of Biden who touted SC as his early firewall. The FOX poll a month ago showed Sanders 17 points further behind.
- Joe Biden — 25%
- Bernie Sanders — 20%
- Tom Steyer — 18%
- Elizabeth Warren — 11%
- Pete Buttigieg — 7%
- Tulsi Gabbard — 3%
- Andrew Yang — 3%
- Amy Klobuchar — 2%
California…
The big prize could be monumental. If Sanders’s campaign comes close to delivering what the January 30th KQED/NPR/ChangeResearch poll suggested, he could build a formidable pledged delegate advantage.
- Bernie Sanders — 30%
- Elizabeth Warren — 16%
- Joe Biden — 15%
- Pete Buttigieg — 8%
- Andrew Yang — 5%
- Tulsi Gabbard — 4%
- Michael Bloomberg — 4%
- Amy Klobuchar — 3%
- Tom Steyer — 2%
And Onward To Victory!
candidate |
NH1 |
NH2 |
NV |
SC |
CA |
sanders |
32.4 |
24 |
17.6 |
20 |
30 |
biden |
13.4 |
15 |
19.4 |
25 |
15 |
warren |
10.7 |
10 |
10.6 |
11 |
16 |
buttigieg |
16.5 |
15 |
8.2 |
7 |
8 |
klobuchar |
11.0 |
6 |
3.6 |
2 |
3 |
steyer |
1.5 |
5 |
7.6 |
18 |
2 |
yang
|
5.8 |
3 |
4.4 |
3 |
5 |
gabbard |
5.5 |
5 |
1.2 |
3 |
4 |
bloomberg |
|
|
|
|
4 |
Not me, US!