I went out to Iowa for the last few days, was glad I did since there may never be another round of caucuses in Iowa. Beyond the epic clusterf##k of caucus reporting, there was an actual election happening on the ground, and it was fascinating. And yes, Democrats do have a big problem, but fortunately there is a solution if only we go in the direction that makes sense.
The bottom line is that Democrats freaking out about 2020 need to take a lot of deep breaths (I know only one won’t do the trick) and calm down. Yes, there are deep divisions in our party; yes, we might not have a nominee before we make it to the convention. That is far from ideal, but I’d still rather have our set of problems than Trump’s. An energized and engaged majority of American voters is passionately anti-Trump, and his mansion full of liabilities will come back to haunt him before the election is done. In the midst of all the craziness, Democrats need to stay focused on doing the things that win elections: talk about the issues that matter, register voters, engage our base, reach out to the working people who are the swing voters we need.
Back to Iowa. While I was there, I knocked on hundreds of doors, ranging from upper income suburbs to lower income working class neighborhoods. I also had hundreds of conversations with old time Democrats from all parts of the party, many who had been friends of mine for 35 years. Here’s what I learned:
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So many people were torn, undecided literally right up the last minute before they settled into a preference group on caucus night. I have been working caucuses since the Mondale campaign, and I have never seen anywhere close to this level of indecision so close to a caucus. And it wasn’t because they were picking apart the faults of the candidates and didn’t like their options, quite the opposite: they found so much to genuinely like in the candidates, they had a hard time settling on who was their favorite. Once Democrats settle on their nominee, there will be a lot of good will and excitement about whoever is the candidate.
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Biden’s message in ads and in the field was almost entirely about electability, and it just isn’t enough. Of course voters want a candidate who has a good chance of beating Trump, but every other candidate was also making a compelling argument about electability, and each of them had other appeals as well. There was no passion for Biden outside of some older African-American people I talked to on the doors.
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Bernie’s greatest strength is the unshakable passion of his voters; his great weakness is that outside that core group, there is a great reluctance among other Democrats to support him in the primary. If it’s Bernie one-on-one vs. another candidate, I think the other candidate will get the nomination 60-40.
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Pete’s team ran a great campaign, and most Democrats are fond of him. His support in those upper income suburbs I was canvassing was very strong. But in working class suburbs, there was no depth of support. I ran into only two Pete people in those precincts, and I converted both easily to Warren with only a little bit of conversation.
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Elizabeth’s message of fighting for working people, combined with her ability to be a bridge candidate who could bring the progressive wing of the party together with the rest of the Democrats, had enormous appeal. I picked up a lot of undecideds, and converted several more.
As we head into what will very likely be a long fight for the nomination, we have a powerful way to bring this party together. Bernie is going to continue to get his 25% plus of the vote. Pete will get a little bit of a lift from Iowa, but not as much as he had hoped because of all the confusion; in any case, he will continue to have an appeal especially in the suburbs. I don’t think Biden will do well anywhere outside of older African-American voters, but I expect that will be enough for him to win South Carolina and maybe a few other deep South states. Bloomberg’s ridiculous amount of money will buy him his share of votes on Super Tuesday and beyond. More on Elizabeth in a moment, but she will get her share. So at this point, I would guess we are heading into what I’m calling an open convention, where no candidate will have over 50% of the delegates.
But I am not in any way panicked by an open convention. Maybe what this fractured party needs is forced negotiation about its agenda, strategy, message, and candidate.
Here’s the solution: we need a candidate who can build genuine bridges across the divide that separates. We need a candidate who can reach out to the Bernie team, the candidate and his voters, and incorporate much of his agenda and message. We need a candidate who can sit down with the centrist Democrats and work with them constructively to allay their concerns, talk through their policy ideas with them, and build their trust. That candidate is Elizabeth Warren. She is the only candidate still running who can pull that off.
Because of that, I believe Warren will continue to rise in this wild and crazy Democratic primary. People see her sincerity and willingness to work with others to meet their concerns. Her ability to unify the party is powerful, and will continue to build her support in the weeks ahead. That message was especially potent at the doors: I have been knocking on doors for 50 years, and I felt like I was more successful at the doors this time in winning converts than I have ever been.
Democrats will come together, and we will beat Trump. But it will be a lot easier to do with Elizabeth Warren as our candidate.