While the Warren Campaign Obituary writers were busy fine-tuning their hot takes over the weekend, the latest Nevada Democratic caucus poll came out. It would appear the Senator from Massachusetts may not be done quite yet:
Data for Progress — Nevada Democratic Primary (2/12 — 2/15, 766 LV)
Sanders — 35
Warren — 16
Buttigieg — 15
Biden — 14
Steyer — 10
Klobuchar — 9
Gabbard — 2
(this is the first NV Dem poll for Data for Progress this cycle; no priors)
Is Nevada notoriously difficult to poll? It is. (Although this pollster has the largest sample size of any this cycle so far.)
Is Warren’s #2 position here within the margin of error compared to a clump of other leading candidates? It is. (Although Biden’s momentum is clearly pointed the wrong direction.)
Are all of them in that mid-teens cluster teetering on the edge of making the 15% viability cutoff? Sure. (And it’s a caucus, bringing with it all the uncertainty and unpredictability that process always contains.)
Might the bigger story be the growing lead for the Sanders campaign? Perhaps. (Although the country-story should continue to be that it’s actually the Warren campaign, not Mayor Pete or Mike Bloomberg, who represents the biggest threat to Bernie’s juggernaut).
But even with those caveats, look at our best guess at the Nevada momentum. Bernie has made big gains since IA and NH; Amy and Pete appear to have modest improvements — all about what we might expect given the state of play. Biden has taken heavy losses. Tom Steyer has invested heavily and continues to hold his position for now. Bloomberg isn’t a factor yet. But unlike Biden, the Warren campaign isn’t falling off. Instead, it’s showing a rebound similar to Amy and Pete’s. Sanders is rocketing upward — but she is gaining as well. It stands to reason that he might not be gaining her voters, after all. Perhaps as Biden bleeds supporters, many are in fact finding, along with others, the Warren campaign.
Elizabeth Warren’s path to the nomination has been described as narrow, and it probably is. But this is the data you’d want to start to see if you were hoping to see that path followed. The next debate will add Mike Bloomberg — an ideal scenario for Warren, who should be able to rail against Bloomberg in a way no other candidate can, including Sanders. This poll shows 4 in 10 Nevadans are still making up their minds; the opening is there.
My attachment to the Warren campaign has grown slowly but steadily, and I’m now fully on-board. Her career has been dedicated to actually working systems, and improving the lives of middle class people through policy reform. She’s experienced in all the right ways, has a compelling life story, speaks incredibly well about the importance of her work, and has a plan for actually turning the page from the Trump administration. She’ll be a formidable candidate, and a truly excellent president.
Come back to the Warren campaign. Speak about her in your networks. Consider a donation. She’s far from through… and the media loves a good comeback story!
PS: One final thought: we know that everyone reading this — everyone reading this — will be voting blue no matter who come November. And we know every candidate in this poll — plus a bevy of other huge, influential voices — will speak up in favor of the Democratic candidate. And we’ll need each of them! But, if it helps, try to picture each of them, in turn, speaking out in favor of the various candidates now contending. Picture folks like Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, etc., on stage at the convention, or featured in an ad campaign, or doing run-outs to targeted communities to rally the troops. Picture that team for Joe Biden. Picture them for Amy Klobuchar. Picture them for Bernie Sanders. Picture them for Pete Buttigieg.
Now picture them for Elizabeth Warren.
I’m biased. But I just can’t imagine any other top-tier candidate so plausibly and authentically being endorsed, praised, and campaigned for by our biggest, best, most influential party leaders. I think that will show, and help consolidate any reluctant supporters come the fall.
If you’re on the fence, maybe that’s something to consider.