On 18 February I voted early in Tennessee, and cast my ballot for Bernie Sanders. I believe that Sanders has the best chance against Trump in November, and I would like to explain my reasons for this.
First, it is extremely difficult to beat an incumbent (even Trump), and even more difficult to do so in a robust economy. Of course we know that he is not responsible for the current economy, that his policies have risked (and still risk) destroying it, that he has helped inflate a dangerous bubble, that is likely to be punctured in the near future, and, most of all, that the economy is not so good for ordinary people, and that its result has accelerated the extreme wealth inequality this is crippling this nation.
But none of this matters, because people have been indoctrinated to believe that the economy is quite good, and further, they have a positive view of Trump's managing it. Contemporary polls all point to this fact, and there is little that will persuade people otherwise.
The only way to beat that argument - Sanders' and Warren's way - is to acknowledge that the economy is doing well, but that ordinary people are not sharing in its benefits. That their share is diminishing rapidly, and that they are essentially surrendering it to the very rich and to corporations, that these powerful elites have been blatantly stealing from them, robbing them blind, and that something has to be done to stop this devastating trend, and to re-establish a modicum of fairness for all.
These observations may be facile and simplistic. These problems are mainly structural, and that this devolution started long before Trump, and that they may even be a result of the principles and philosophy which guided America from its beginnings.
But I do not believe that voters respond to analyses and explanations of why we are here. They certainly won't believe that Trump is responsible for all of it, because (let's face it) he is not. And they do not have the patience to endure lessons on economic history.
People will, however, respond to a message which identifies the facts as they are, and to a message that makes them angry about it, and provokes them to fight for their rightful share of of the wealth that is flowing exclusively to the very rich.
If one lesson can be learned from the past three years, it is that Americans will tolerate almost anything in their political leaders and elites. They will even accept being repeatedly screwed, as long as the screwing is not done explicitly and in their face. But no American enjoys the humiliating feeling of being taken advantage of, of being scammed, of being suckered, of being made to feel like a fool. And Sanders' message is exactly this, and the more he pounds at it, the more people will listen and get angry, and demand to do something about it.
People have been educated to accept diminished expectations, and are convinced that their lot is accept reality, and to struggle to hang on to a semblance of comfort and dignity. They are now convinced that they are lucky to have any job at all, without benefits, and that they need to plead with bosses to take a sick day. They accept their crappy health insurance with $4000 deductibles and 25% co-pays, and are jealous of their neighbor who only has a $2500 deductible and 20% co-pays. They will even defend their insurance, because TV tells them to do so. People who own their homes now accept the fact that their children will never afford to do so, and will attribute this situation to the fact that "times are harder now", and that to get a good job requires eight years of university education, which they also cannot afford.
To win an election in such circumstances requires intensively spreading the message of the system's unfairness, and more importantly, to foment intense anger. I am referring of course to a "class war". As Warren Buffett famously said, “There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” It is time that regular Americans participated in this class war, and to fight for their rights before it is too late. This sounds like drastic hyperbole, but it is true nonetheless.
Because the future does not portend well for those who must work for a living. The savings realized by automation have flown exclusively to the upper classes. In the future, automation will replace almost all jobs that require manual labor, and most of the desk jobs too. The end result is that the rich will not need us at all. There will, of course, be room for some professionals - doctors, engineers, etc. - to provide the necessary infrastructure for the super rich (but those jobs will also be threatened by automation). As for the regular person, if his or her work is cheaper than a robot (like in China), then the person will have work. Otherwise not.
I believe that the electorate is ready to accept this message, and that it is a winning one. The message is this: there must be some inherent value in being a human, that we were not put on this earth to serve the whims of the rich. Of course this argument leads to subjects like universal basic income (and not only basic, but a living income), free health care and free university. But I am not here to discuss policy, but rather, the messaging needed to beat Trump and all that he represents.
Trump has one other argument in his favor. Unlike his predecessors, he has not started any new wars. You can bet that he will repeatedly trot out this argument, and people will listen to it. Sanders (and Warren) should sarcastically compliment him on this, but then ask why the military has budget has not shrunk as a consequence, claiming that they will radically cut the military budget and pass the savings onto programs that benefit the people.
Notice that I have not enunciated all the horrible things that Trump has done during his tenure. I believe that they are not relevant to this election, unless they are put into the context of this historical trend which continues to screw the public. Running against the bad Trump (essentially the platform of Biden and Bloomberg) will not be sufficient to win. Sanders' class war message can win, and people will respond to it. Perhaps not the people who write articles on this site, but it will resonate with many Americans, and I believe the majority will respond to it.
I should add that I personally prefer Elizabeth Warren, that her reasoned and thoughtful approach appeals more to my esthetic. I am in her demographic. But I also recognize that Sanders is a more effective spokesman for these principles, and that his direct, in your face approach will be more effective. It certainly is with most of my friends, and with the people I talk to every day here in Nashville.
There will be some here who will protest my arguments, claiming that projects of Sanders and Warren are unrealistic, because of the republican senate, or because of budgetary limitations ("there is no way to pay for it"), or because billionaires will not give up power so easily, or because taxing the rich and corporations is impossible, and moreover will not be enough to fund these projects, or that these messages are "too divisive".
I would like to remind people that in 2008 another politician also put forth ambitious and aspirational proposals, and few democrats pushed back on them. But not all. Hillary Clinton did push back, and treated them with disdain and sarcasm. And history tells us that she was right! But then, recall who won the democratic primary, and went on to win the election. Of course Sanders is not Obama, but they both had (and have) messages which appealed to electorate, reality be damned. After all, as democrats we should want to win, and I believe Bernie Sanders is the person best fit to do it.