Well, things have moved quickly here in the Hawkeye State. I posted a diary yesterday evening, and already the situation has changed significantly, not so much with the number of cases but rather with the state’s response. So I thought an update for those interested would be worthwhile. Again, as with my previous diary, this is not intended to be comprehensive. If you have any additional Iowa-related coronavirus updates, feel free to add them in the comments.
The Virus:
One new case today, but a doozy: it was announced today that an employee of the Urbandale School District, specifically one of the elementary schools, tested positive for COVID-19. The individual in question is in quarantine but no further information is available other than that the individual was detected due to seeking treatment for symptoms. Urbandale is a suburb of Des Moines and the school district is one of the larger ones in the state, with more than 4,000 students and nearly 300 certified teachers. The concerning thing about this revelation is that people can be contagious for several days before showing symptoms, so depending on when this person was infected and when symptoms began, they could have been contagious while at work at the school before Spring Break started. Also, the information I have does not provide any information on how this individual may have been exposed. If this was another case of community spread (the first was detected Saturday in Dallas County, which is part of the metro area and location of many of the Des Moines suburbs), then the virus is indeed freely circulating in the population here in the Greater Des Moines Metro Area. Our total number of confirmed cases here in Iowa now stands at 23.
Meanwhile, doctors are warning that hospitals in the state are short on supplies needed to combat the symptoms of COVID-19, noting shortages of masks, swabs, and ventilators especially. Dr. Shaw Yogesh Shaw of Broadlawns Hospital in Des Moines, for example, noted his hospital has only seven ventilators on hand. Shah also notes a shortage of ICU units that are air-controlled to prevent transmission of contagious diseases. The number of beds available in general does not look good, either:
If 7.4% of Iowans are infected with coronavirus — the lowest rate of infection from the seasonal flu, a different contagious illness, in the past five years — that would mean 231,000 people would be sickened. At that rate, based on World Health Organization estimates, 46,000 Iowans could be made either severely or critically ill from COVID-19, the disease caused by the highly contagious virus.
If those projections are correct, there would be only one hospital bed available for nearly every five COVID-19 patients needing hospitalization. A COVID-19 patient who needs hospitalization generally needs about 11 days there, according to a pre-print study of Chinese cases by the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Not a rosy picture. Of course, this is not a unique situation: it’s what hospitals across the country are potentially facing in the coming weeks.
Education:
Gov. Reynolds recommended yesterday that schools close for 4 weeks. Districts are taking heed of this and are shutting down. Most of the districts in the state are already on Spring Break this week, so for most this actually amounts to 3 weeks of unplanned shutdown.
My wife and I both work for districts in the Des Moines metro area, and while I don’t have many details yet from my employer, my wife’s sent out an update this evening explaining that next week staff badges will no longer work except for select staff that will need access (basically, telling staff if they have any personal items they need to get, to get them this week or they’ll be locked out).
Today, Gov. Reynolds announced that she will be waiving the need to make up the missed days through April 10th, and is seeking authority for an extension if necessary. Double edged sword there — lost instructional days, but also absolves districts of having to figure out the logistics of making up 3 (or more) weeks of instruction. The state will have to work out how this will all work into things like credits for graduation and such, but such things can be sorted out later, right now the need is to keep the kids home.
The USDA has granted waivers to districts to allow them to continue serving meals to students, and the Des Moines District has already announced they will be providing meals. This is a very important step, because many students in the state depend on school breakfasts and lunches for a significant amount of their food, and it will also help take pressure off parents who may be finding grocery store shelves rather bare. Not to mention those parents whose employers will still require them to go to work, of course.
Business:
Four casinos in Iowa, including Prairie Meadows in Des Moines, have closed or will be closing shortly. While Gov. Reynolds stopped short of ordering any places of business to close as of yet, she strongly urged people not to congregate. Many entertainment and recreation centers are closing as a result. I’ve been seeing online and in the news that many restaurants are offering curbside pickup or delivery in an effort to keep up some business while trying to enact the social distancing being requested by authorities. Mickey’s Irish Pub, with several locations across the state and a popular hotspot for St. Patrick’s Day celebrations, has announced that for the safety of their staff and patrons they will be closed on St. Patrick’s Day.
*Edited to add graphic per suggestion in comments!