Four states were supposed to vote on March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Just three will be voting, with Ohio in a giant confusing mess as Gov. Mike DeWine moved late to postpone the primary there, with a court battle continuing and little clarity about what’s happening beyond the immediate fact that what’s not happening is voting.
And while these primaries were expected to be a significant event, further cementing former Vice President Joe Biden’s overall delegate lead and increasing the pressure on Sen. Bernie Sanders to drop out of the race, they are now a total afterthought. But they’re happening, for what it’s worth, in some form—or at least three of them are.
Polling shows Biden in the lead in Arizona, 51%-31%; in Florida, 66%-22%; and in Ohio, for whatever that’s worth, 58%-35%. There is little recent polling in Illinois, but Biden is favored there as well, with one poll last week putting him up by 20 points.
All four states scheduled to vote March 17 have some form of vote by mail—something the 17 states that don’t yet allow it need to do immediately—but the county recorder in Maricopa County, Arizona, was blocked from simply sending ballots to all of the registered Democrats who hadn’t yet voted. Maricopa County has had to close 80 polling places because it didn’t have enough poll workers or cleaning supplies. Any registered voter can vote at the remaining polling locations, regardless of where they live.
Florida and Illinois have both moved polling locations out retirement facilities and will focus heavily on cleaning voting equipment and other surfaces voters and poll workers need to touch. Illinois extended early voting in the days leading up to the primary.
We will not be able to draw any lessons about enthusiasm from turnout in these states, and it’s entirely possible that results will be skewed by who turns out to vote, who already voted by mail, and who decides that social distancing is more important than voting in a primary that’s mostly decided—but we won’t know how it’s skewed. A total mess, in other words, but not the biggest mess we’re dealing with right now.
Voting in Florida and Illinois will end at 8 PM ET. Voting in Arizona will end at 10 PM ET, and counting can be expected to take days given the prevalence of vote by mail.