Friday the UK government’s plans to stop social contacts, ensure social distancing and to put those most vulnerable under increased protection started to come into effect.
I previously wrote how on Monday the advice was to not go to places of entertainment, pubs and restaurants. As I predicted, this has left the country quiet and town deserted apart from food shops etc. Today those became mandatory and they will be ordered to close apart to provide take-out (or delivery) service from tonight. The government also announced they will pay up to 80% of the pay for employees whose bosses do not lay off because of these measures and a raft of additional financial help from the government including tax holidays to help small businesses survive.
Panic shopping has continued. I had to go out at 3pm to buy some bread, milk, margarine and some fruit and vegetables to replenish my stocks to feed myself reasonably for the next few days. The shelves of most of the supermarkets were denuded or empty tho I did manage to get a loaf of bread at a little “local” branch of one big chain and milk at another. Carefully used hand sanitizer once I had loaded my bag from the shopping cart and parked it. I have just had a delivery from Amazon who are enforcing distancing for their couriers.
The Government’s SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) suggest that it will take a year or until a vaccine is widely available before the virus can run its course. Their plan is to manage not one peak but a series of peaks within the capacity of the NHS to deal with. This will, if you like, be like taking your foot on and off the brake.
Social distancing would be needed for "at least half of the year" to stop intensive care units being overwhelmed, according to the government's scientific advisers.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) recommended alternating between more and less strict measures for most of a year.
Strict measures include school closures and social distancing for everyone.
Less restrictive measures include isolating cases and households.
A test for antibodies to the virus rather than the current one for active virus is being fast tracked. This is being seen as a game changer. Immediately those front line workers, at first in hospitals, who have already self-isolated because they showed symptoms but who were not tested can be assure they are safe from Covid-19 infection (as far as is known) and can carry on working. This can spread out to the rest as it appears to be a fairly simple self-test. In future high separation periods like this, they will be able to function normally so the economic impact will be reduced, while practicing things like hand washing to minimise transmission from and to others secondhand.
From Friday schools and colleges will be mostly closed except for some provision for the children of key workers (an official list has been published), some other pupil like those with special educational needs and those “with a social worker” where the home circumstances make home isolation difficult or dangerous for the child. With the current shut-down due to last 12 weeks “at least”, this means that for most this will be the last day of the academic year they get normal schooling and none will get exactly the same provision. Some primary schools have had special “leavers” assemblies for those going on to different secondary schools in September (??) and secondary schools for those who will be leaving . British school students normally take subject based qualifications, often 8 or more at 16 (“GCSE”s in England and Wales) or 3 or more at age 18 (“A levels”, the names in Scotland differ.) While there has been more emphasis placed on the final, usually three hour, examination paper, some course include course work (assignments) done throughout the course of study. Teachers will now give grades based on course work and the results of the “mock” (practice) papers taken in January (used to assess student’s weak areas so they can concentrate on them during further study).
In other snippets:
- Tests for driving licences have been suspended for three months, with the exception of key workers
- Church of England marrige ceremonies have been limited to the couple, the celebrant and the two witnesses required by law. If other marriages in registry offices follow similar patterns, witnesses might be restricted to their other staff who perform ceremonies although they may well be busy issuing death certificates. The licencing arrangement for the couples may change as one condition of church weddings is that “bans” or notices be read out on three Sundays.
- A separate supply chain has been set up to provide NHS hospitals (first) and GPs and other staff with personal protective equipment. Hospital supplies were supposed to have been delivered last night. On Thursday one hospital was forced to appeal for some basic supplies
- The government has given £20million to CEPI a global body coordinating fast-track development of a vaccine.
- Up to 40 stations on the London Underground are close as will be sections of lines. It’s expected that a 50% or Sunday service will run on Transport for London and national commuter lines coming into London. The overnight Tube and Overground services on Fridays and Saturdays have been suspended.
- Fraudsters are selling fake masks and sanitizers on line. Trading standards in Birmingham have siezed examples which contain ingredients banned for human use six years ago.
This means being suspicious of anyone who offers help, either online or in person, the Local Government Association warned, after councils in Rochdale and south London received reports of attempted scams.
In Lewisham, south London, Neighbourhood Watch reported cold-callers knocking at the doors of elderly people, saying they were from the health authority and were carrying out tests.
- The national stadium used for soccer etc is thanking NHS staff by lighting up its signature arch.
- London remains ahead of the rest of the country with isolated hotspots in North and parts of outer London where they are two weeks ahead. Hospitals outside central London are seeing the most pressure. (This could be because many central London hospitals have specialisms and they have been stopping non-urgent routine surgery to free beds and even operating theatres for coronavirus intensive care.) Which brings us to slightly worrying but expected news:
One NHS hospital in North London had to declare itself closed for new admissions due to pressure on its intensive treatment provision. They followed the well established “Critical Incident” procedure and redirected cases to other hospitals. The incident finished at 4pm Friday.
A major London hospital declared a “critical incident” due to a surge in patients with coronavirus, with one senior director in the capital calling the development “petrifying”.
In a message to staff on Thursday night, Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow said it had no critical care capacity left and was contacting neighbouring hospitals about transferring patients who need critical care to other sites.
….
“As part of our system resilience plans, we have contacted our partners in the North West London sector this evening to assist with the safe transfer of patients off of the Northwick Park site”
The trust said the incident was stood down at 4pm on Friday, as they were able to open some more critical care beds. It has not yet stated how many new beds were opened.
The hospital is run by London North West University Healthcare Trust, which has reported six deaths related to coronavirus, all at Northwick Park.
This sort of scenario can occur througout the yea.r No connection with that virus, but it’s the sort of thing that happens in bad flu outbreaks or if there has been a major incident. NHS and other emergency services’ staff practice dealing with major incidents like terrorist bomb explosions or train crashes regularly. So one hospital temporarily running out of intensive care provisions is not too worrying. The NHS system is set up to spread peak demands in this way.
I have a few practical hints for those of you at most risk when going out to get essential supplies (only! Please.)
ASSUME ANYONE ELSE OUT IS A COMPLETE IDIOT INTENT ON GIVING YOU THE VIRUS.
People will get in your way, approach too close or, for example block shop aisles. Keep a close eye out for others.
Do not be afraid to make your presence and that you want them to avoid contact obvious. People glued to cellphones are a particular nuisance, I developed a very loud “stage cough” (to alert one particular woman who together with her stroller and feral toddler were blocking the footpath.)
In small shops, maintain and ask people to “maintain a safe distance from others”. I had to use that one in a pharmacy on Wednesday to a woman (with stroller) who blocked my exit when she started chatting to a friend who came in as she was leaving. I pre-empted the pharmacist who was about to ask the two to stop chatting.
[Is there a theme here, yes; parents with young children often concentrate on them and are unaware of other people around them; I have nearly been sprawled across both stroller and baby when someone did a sharp right turn without looking as I was passing them.]
Shoppers (bags on wheels), umbrellas, walking stick and crutches make good “direction indicators” to visually guide people away from you.
Shopping carts, even if empty because of shortages, help distancing in supermarkets. When you reach the checkout line, put the cart behind you so the next customer cannot get too close. Remember to wash or sanitise your hands after using the cart.
Be creative in substituting if they are out of stock. Digestive biscuits and crispbreads are ideal with cheese if you have no ordinary bread. I was out of hand wash and found a bottle of cheap supermarket own brand shower gel that was as effective when diluted.