With all the information disseminated regarding the COVID-19 virus, it is difficult to grasp both the broad scope and the state-specific consequences that America is facing. I live in Canada, but have family in the United States, so this is real for me. My daughter is a labour and delivery nurse in Toronto who caught a flu bug, was given a test, and was told to go home and stay home until the test result came back. When she told me this, she had no idea how long that would be. Fortunately, she is feeling healthy and chomping at the bit to get back to work, but she has to wait …
I know there are lots of charts and graphs around to provide us all with information — any information — about this pandemic. However, I could not find anything to give me a concise, easy to understand overview of the national and state-specific caseload trends. When I found this NY Times link, my data-oriented spidy senses told me I needed to make some sense of the data in a different way. I hope you find the following as useful as I do.
I will not bore you with the details about what was involved in creating these graphs. Suffice it to say they can be refreshed in about 15 minutes when more current data is downloaded.
First, a chart showing the more or less similar trajectory that each state is following. Remember that the chart uses a logarithmic scale, so the human impact of this data is mind-boggling. The data is plotted from the third day after each state had at least 10 cases. This seems to do well to put the spread of the virus on a similar path in each state. The last 5 points in each state sequence (before levelling off to horizontal) are estimates for the next 5 days case counts, based on the calculated daily growth rate using the most recent 4 days new case growth. I can give more detail about this if anyone is interested.
Now, I know the image is too ‘busy’ to be able to see the details clearly. Those details will become clear below. For now, there are several things that strike me as obvious:
- Save for the two outliers at the bottom right, the initial trajectory of the spread of the virus is eerily similar in all states. The bottom right-most series is Nebraska, and the one to the left of it is Texas. No state is immune to the effects of this disease.
- The top-most series is New York. It appears that the trend is bending slightly towards levelling off. I hope so.
Now for the interesting stuff. I split the data from the above chart into more detailed charts, each with 5 or fewer states. Same data — easier to comprehend.
The states are grouped based on their rank in current 4-day case growth trend. The fastest-spreading growth rate is currently Indiana. At recent trend rates, case counts will more than triple in each of these states in the next 5 days. Ouch.
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All of these states will come close to tripling their case counts in the next 5 days.
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Michigan seems to be bending, but only enough to recede to the rate of the other four. Florida is shooting for the moon. All of these states should increase their case counts by a factor of more than 2.5 in the next 5 days.
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All of these states should more than double their case counts in the next 5 days.
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Texas and Nebraska rates of spread took a while to catch up to the other states, but their time in the shadows has ended. Unfortunately.
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Case counts here will more than double in the next 5 days.
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The rate of increase is slowing in Tennessee, but all 5 states should see their case counts more than double in the next 5 days.
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The danger to California has been all over the news, and for good reason, given the population of the state. It’s rate of growth shows no sign of slowing.
Georgia and Colorado seem to be bending the curve slightly.
The crisis in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi seems to be bending, but at what cost to the states. Doubled case counts in the next 5 days.
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The curve seems to be bending in New York. How high will the damaging case count reach there? Counts should almost double in each of these states in the next 5 days.
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Washington is definitely trending in the right direction. What will it’s final case count be. And even Guam is feeling the impact. Guam!
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In the society we all live in, each of us is personally affected by the crisis in several (if not many) of the 54 states and territories represented here. My hope is that the above will give you a little better understanding of the nature of the virus spread in each. My sympathy is extended to each of you who have been personally impacted by the loss of a friend or loved one.