There are seven states that will decide the 2020 presidential election: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. When I rattle off this list, people are surprised to see that Ohio and Iowa aren’t on the list (they're now safely red), and that Georgia is on it. But Georgia has been on the edge of purple status for several cycles now.
2008: McCain 52, Obama 47
2012: Romney 53, Obama 45
2016: Trump 50, Clinton 45
But given changing demographic trends, Georgia is now a full-fledged purple state. And while it still leans slightly Republican, it’s truly slight.
FiveThirtyEight reported on a poll conducted for the Georgia Senate campaign of Rep. Doug Collins, the guy running against appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler. If you recall, Loeffler and her husband, New York Stock Exchange chairman Jeffrey Sprecher, have been making bank by buying and selling stocks based on information she’s getting in closed-door and classified Senate briefings. She’s scum. So is Collins, but he hasn’t directly profited from the death of thousands. Yet. That we know of.
Collins’ poll shows him beating Loeffler. It also shows him doing better against Democrat Raphael Warnock (who is a kick-ass candidate) than Loeffler. Shit, does that mean we have to root for Loeffler? Nah. Warnock is a complete unknown. We have time to change that.
More relevant for purposes of this post are the presidential numbers, and I’m sure impeached President Donald Trump, the guy doing nothing during a mass-death event in the United States, is looking as beatable as I’ve been saying:
|
Trump |
Biden |
Total |
48 |
46 |
|
|
|
Independents |
39 |
48 |
Moderates |
27 |
67 |
Conservative |
87 |
10 |
Progressive |
9 |
79 |
|
|
|
Women |
43 |
51 |
Men |
54 |
40 |
Trump has mostly consolidated his base, Biden still hasn’t, and that’s pretty much the only reason this poll isn’t tied.
In the 2016 Georgia exit polls, Hillary Clinton won women 54-43, which suggests the Biden still has room to grow there. Trump won men 60-37, which shows that Biden has already eaten into Trump’s 2016 base. Having a penis apparently has its advantages.
Now of course, this comes as no surprise to me. These are Civiqs’ tracking poll numbers for Georgia, when asking about Trump’s reelection (normally behind our paywall):
It’s the same two-point spread that Collins’ own poll saw, except with just a smidgeon more third-party support. And look at those trends!
None of this should come as a surprise. Democrats—led by Stacey Abrams—have been tirelessly registering the state’s historically low-turnout Black community, and Abrams herself came within the margin of voter fraud in 2018. She lost 50.2 to 48.8, or about 50,000 votes, against the Republican secretary of state, one who purged tens of thousands of voters prior to the election.
Trump undoubtedly has the slight edge in Georgia, but it’s a state that has never seen a full-fledged presidential campaign. It’s a state in which Stacey Abrams has continued to work hard to organize.
In fact, Georgia Republicans are terrified of increased Democratic turnout! Announcing his opposition to Democratic proposals for increased vote-by-mail in the state amidst the coronavirus pandemic, one Georgia lawmaker said, “This will be extremely devastating to Republicans and conservatives in Georgia. Every registered voter is going to get one of these. … This will certainly drive up turnout.”
No matter how you look at it, Georgia is a legit battleground state, and one we can win if we work hard enough to overcome the GOP’s margin of suppression.
Also, if you’ve wondered why I’ve been so gung-ho on having Stacey Abrams as Biden’s vice-presidential pick, now you can see why. (Not to mention the value of having her help drive up critical Black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, Jacksonville, Miami, Raleigh/Durham, and Philly.)
Update: Gah! I switched the moderate and independent numbers accidentally, giving Trump the unearned and non-correct advantage. That’s been fixed.