Wisconsin has shown us how far the GOP will go to retain power. They will use their Gerrymandered majorities in State Legislatures and their majorities in State and Federal Courts to risk and possibly sacrifice the lives of voters (not only our voters, but their voters as well) to hold onto power wherever they can.
The GOP has Declared POLITICAL WAR!
A Political War in which they are willing to accept voters as Collateral Damage!
So how do we fight back?
That is the question which I will explore in this Diary with an eye towards preparing for the November elections.
That means not just mounting the traditional GOTV effort towards our voters, but mounting a GOTV effort in which we make our voters feel SAFE to cast their ballots, should we be in a perceived or real Corona virus outbreak come November.
Plan A — Federal legislation: With the COVID-19 Phase 3 Aid Bill, Democrats tried to include funding for States to set up vote by mail systems, as detailed in this article from the Intelligencer. But the GOP only allowed a measly $400 million with no strings attached. Now it appears that they will try again with the upcoming COVID-19 Phase 4 Aid Bill. This time the the Bill must have sufficient funds to set up no excuse vote-by-mail in all 50 States, targeting those States that currently do not have 100% vote by mail systems, and withhold all COVID-19 Aid from States that refuse to accept the additional vote by mail funding and refuse to set up a 100% vote by mail system or a no excuse needed absentee vote by mail option. Such strings are needed since GOP controlled States would just refuse the vote by mail funding.
However, we have to be honest with ourselves at the chances of a Plan A success. For McConnell and Trump this is Political War. Even if McConnell were to allow a Phase 4 Aid Bill to come to the Senate Floor with a meaningful vote by mail provision in it (as described above) which is highly, highly doubtful, Trump would most certainly veto a Phase 4 Aide Bill with such a provision since his whole political future rides on suppressing the vote. Yes, they will go to the mat on this, denying the entire much needed aid package, in order to prevent their political demise. Wisconsin is proof of that!
So if Plan A doesn’t succeed, which seems likely IMO, we need a Plan B. A Plan B structured around the possibility that the GOP will succeed in thwarting any changes to the way we vote and that we will be in the middle of another CORVID-19 outbreak come November.
So what should a Plan B look like?
Here are my General and Specific Suggestions for a Plan B GOTV effort that makes our voters (“our voters” meaning registered Democrats and some Independents in Urban and Suburban Districts) feel SAFE.
Plan B — A Multi-Faceted Approach:
General Suggestions — Since Democratic $$ resources are always limited, we will most likely be forced into targeting the swing States, both in terms of the Presidential Election and in terms of where we have our best shots at picking up and retaining Senate seats to win both the Presidency and control of the Senate. As I see it these States are as follows:
Presidential Swing States — Slightly Red: Georgia; Purple: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina & Pennsylvania; and Sightly Blue: Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Maine & New Hampshire.
Senate Flip and Hold States — Hold: Alabama (Jones (D)); and Flip: Arizona (McSally (R)), Colorado (Gardner (R)), Maine (Collins (R)), North Carolina (Tillis (R)), and let’s throw in Iowa (Ernst (R)), Kentucky (McConnell (R)) and one of the Georgia seats for fun.
Some may disagree, but I think these are the States where we need to focus our SAFE GOTV efforts to win both the Presidency and the Senate.
Specific Suggestions — My specific suggestions for SAFE GOTV involve a 3-Pronged Approach: 1. Encourage Vote By Mail; 2. Encourage Early Voting; and 3. Make Election Day Safer. Here are the details:
- Encourage Vote By Mail Wherever Possible — The best way to safely vote is of course to Vote By Mail. So we should do our best to encourage our voters (and we know where they are) to GOTV By Mail. The good news is if you take a look at Stephan Wolf's Post you will see a large number of States already have either 100% Vote By Mail (VBM) systems or at least “No Excuse Absentee Voting (NEAV)” allowing any voter in those States to get a mail in ballot. Correlating these States with the ones mentioned above as Swing, Hold and Flip States we find that Colorado is a 100% VBM State and all the rest are NEAV States except for New Hampshire, Alabama & Kentucky which all require some sort of an excuse to get an absentee ballot. So in the above States which allow VBM or NEAV we need to do GOTV with flyers that give our voters detailed instructions on how to obtain a VBM or NEAV ballot from their State or County Board of Elections, and encourage them to do so. This means getting those fliers out in August or early September to allow sufficient time to for voters to get ballots ahead of deadlines. We should also target TV and Social Media Ads to encourage VBM and NEAV and provide instructions on how to obtain such ballots. Also the Presidential and Senatorial campaigns should include instructions on how to VBM or get a NEAV ballot on their websites with links to individual State/County sites to obtain ballots.
- Encourage Early Voting Wherever Possible — The next best thing to VBM or NEAV in terms of voter safety is to participate in early in person voting. A number of States now have early voting which often means shorter lines and would make it easier to practice social distancing while voting. So for those who can’t or don’t vote by mail, we need to encourage early voting in all our campaign ads, fliers and other media with individual instructions on where and when early voting is available.
- Making Our Voters Feel Safe on Election Day (SAFE GOTV) — No matter how many of our voters we get to VBM, NEAV or vote early, there will be a critical number of our voters who, for whatever reason, will be left having to vote in person on Election Day. To get these voters to go to the polls in the middle of a second COVID outbreak if it occurs, we have to make them feel safe. So how do we conduct a SAFE GOTV campaign? Here are a couple of ideas:
- Make sure our voters know through GOTV efforts that there will be markings on the ground of where to stand while waiting in line to vote at safe social distances of 6 feet or greater (similar those shown in the Post picture above). To make this happen find out if the local BOE will be marking the floor / pavement. If not, ask permission to do it, get a tape measure and some tape and mark the floor / pavement the day before.
- Make sure our voters know that we will be handing out free gloves and masks to anyone waiting to vote that doesn’t have them. Following through on this means using campaign funds to purchase gloves and masks, and have volunteers outside polling places handing them out to all in line. If someone asks who is providing them, tell them local Democrats. I’m sure that won’t violate any election laws.
As you can see a big part of SAFE GOTV is getting as many of our voters as possible to Vote By Mail in States that offer VBM or NEAV. If successful, we not only improve our odds at winning which is the goal of traditional GOTV, it also ensures that our voters are SAFE which is just as important. But a huge success in Vote By Mail will have two unintended but obvious consequences, one a small downside and the other a larger upside.
On the downside, we may not be able to know the outcome of the Presidential race and certain other races on Election Night, and maybe not for days. Usually, the # of absentee ballots is too small to effect the outcome of the race determined by the in person tally, so winners can be declared before counting Absentee Ballots. But if the # of absentee ballots is high enough to possibly change the outcome of the in person result, absentee ballots will have to be counted before a winner can be declared. That could mean days of anxiety, so be ready for it. Have your anti-anxiety pills at the ready!
The upside is, an Absentee Ballot is a paper ballot, that cannot be electronically altered. Whether read and tallied directly by human poll workers or fed through a machine, we still have a hard copy paper trail of the vote, and that’s a good thing. It is a side benefit protecting from possible foreign manipulation of our election that could be more severe than in 2016.
Conclusion — We have to be ready for voting during a CORVID outbreak and for Republicans trying to force unsafe in person voting to suppress the turnout of our voters. As a result, we cannot conduct GOTV as usual, we need to be ready to conduct SAFE GOTV using all the tools at our disposal (e.g. VBM, NEAV, etc.) to make our voters feel safe.
Let me leave you with this little hopeful phrase in these dark times:
May the fact that we are physically farther apart, bring us emotionally closer together!
Thursday, Apr 9, 2020 · 1:27:45 PM +00:00
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Doctor Who
UPDATE: I just heard on Morning Joe that New York Governor Cuomo announced that everyone in New York wanting an Absentee Ballot for the June Primary and November Election will get one. New York is an “Excuse Required” Absentee Ballot State. But I am guessing he is using the “illness” excuse in the law to automatically cover all those applying for an Absentee Ballot. So for this year anyway New York will essentially be a “No Excuse Required, Absentee Ballot State.