Thank you for the Rec List. Let me add a quick data update. Using this Worldometers data as of end of day yesterday:
COVID Data by Social Distancing Rules
|
SD Rules |
No/light Sd rules |
cases |
625,233 |
128,193 |
deaths |
36,243 |
4,076 |
Pop. |
200.2M |
127.3M |
cases/100k |
312.3 |
100.7 |
deaths/100k |
18.1 |
3.2 |
This split is based on Governors that had imposed strict Social Distancing guidelines by 3/17 compared to those that waited or never imposed guidelines. I based this split initially on Democratic and Republican Governors, but then moved OH, NH, VT, MA and MD to the SD Rules column, and ME to the No/Light SD Rules column. We can debate the split.
When I last updated this analysis in the chart in that link, the states with stricter SD Rules had 3.3x the case rate and 4.5x the mortality rate of non-SD states. If the SD policies were working, you would have expected a reversion to the mean between the SD and non-SD states. There has been a slight reversion in case data, but the SD states still a significant 3.1x multiple of cases after adjusted for population. The mortality gap between the two categories has moved from 4.5x to 5.7x, which is exactly the opposite of what should have happened.
We are left with two choices, either the Social Distancing policies are wrong or some states are lying about their data. We know there is a persistent data issue. Several news organizations have flagged this data issue. This data issue was predictable, which makes it more suspicious. And in the last few days Trump and his minions have provided a motive for why these Republican Governors are doing this. This is not a coincidence.