While far from a perfect measure, death rates per unit of population, rather than raw numbers, or deaths per diagnosed cases, seem to me like perhaps a better measure — at this point — of the social salience of the COVID-19 virus in different geographic areas.
Population rates give an index of density-on-the-ground, or odds that any random individual or someone they know has been tragically impacted.
Rates may therefore offer an angle of insight into perceptions of risk, and perhaps the willingness of certain populations to cooperate with countermeasures.
We know deaths are undercounted — but probably are captured more accurately than nonfatal illnesses, which are more subject to the vagaries of test rationing.
At the same time, it mst be acknowledged that death rates are partly a function of how recently the virus penetrated a community. The number of deaths per 100,000 residents can only go up, not down; the US. was at 20 deaths per 100,000 just a couple of days ago and is now up to 22. Likkwise the rankings evolve. New cases are decreasing in some places, such as Belgium, Italy, and Spain, increasing in others. Sweden’s per-population death rate has just overtaken France.
Still, for the sake of interest, drawn from the NY Times interactive site just now, here are the currently highest reported death rates (not including several “microstates,” some of which have had extremely high rates; for instance the tiny Republic of San Marino has a listed death rate of 121 per 100,000):
Country Deaths per 100,000 persons Deaths (nearest thousand)
1. Belgium 73 8,000
2. Spain 55 26,000
3. Italy 49 30,000
4. U.K. 45 30,000
5. Netherlands 30 5,000
6. France 29 36,000
7. Sweden 29 3,000
8. Ireland 28 1,400
9. U.S. 22 73,000
10. Switzerland 18 2,000
Some others for comparison:
Canada 11 4,000
Portugal 11 1,000
Denmark 9 1,000
Germany 8 7,000
Iran 8 6,000
At reportedly 1 death or less per 100,000: Australia, Mainland China, Russia, South Korea, and South Africa among others
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The NY Times site can take you to your state and even county as well. In the U.S., the highest state-level death rates stand at (not counting the micro-state of Washington, D.C., with a rate of 39):
1. New York 129 25,000
2. New Jersey 96 9,000
3. Connecticut 76 3,000
4. Massachusetts 64 4,000
5. Louisiana 45 2,000
6. Michigan 43 4,000
7. Rhode Island 35 less than 1,000
8. Pennsylvania 26 3,000
9. Maryland 24 1,000
10. Illinois 23 3,000
Some others for comparison:
Indiana 20 1,000
Colorado 16 1,000
Mississippi 13 less than 1,000
Washington (state) 11 1,000
Ohio 10 1,000
States that so far have reported less than 1 death per 100,000 so far include Alaska, Hawaii, Montana and Wyoming; Utah reported a rate of 2.
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I have watched with worry as intitial public concern about the pandemic has sloped off from 75% to 62% per the CIVIQS crawl at the top of the page. And have been worried by on-ground reports like this one.
Is it possible that active public concern in the U.S. depends on some combination of the raw number of deaths locally and the rate of deaths, i.e., density or likelihood that the individual or someone they know will be directly or indirectly impacted?
Just fooling with numbers and thought I’d share.
Stay safe, all!