projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
civiqs.com/…
At this point, I feel 50 to 51% will be the final winning likely scenario in the national popular vote.
42-44% will be the final Trump vote.
5-6% will be none of the above write in or bust, PUMA 3rd party, and vote downballot local-state-federal US house and senate.
Anything above 51% is icing on the cake national popular vote winning.
Anything below Trump being less than 42% is icing on the cake.
flipping Texas, Georgia, Montana in a razor thin dead heat too close to call state is icing on the cake.
Unseating Mitch McConnell is icing on the cake on top of winning all the other republican pickups (Arizona, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, Montana, Kansas, and Georgia)
America in 2020 is different from 2016. America in 2016 was different from America in 2012. 2012 is different from 2008 etc. Let’s learn from our mistakes plus try to appreciate different perspectives on whose turnout was responsible for each razor thin tipping point too close to call states.
2008 to 2004
2004 to 2000
2000 to 1996
1996 to 1992
1992 to 1988.
1988 to 1984.
1984 to 1980.
1980 to 1976.
1976 to 1972.
1972 to 1968.
Who were the white independent average reasonable bipartisan swing voters in each election?
Why did Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton win all the states that now no longer vote for a Democrat?