A lot has been written about what might happen to Trump’s election prospects in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, the subsequent protests that have sprung up all over the country, and also the unfortunate looting and burning that has accompanied it. Will it help Trump on balance? Will it hurt? As of right now it looks pretty obvious that it has hurt Trump, and his approval/disapproval numbers have been cratering as a result.
Let’s first look at the daily trackers for clues if the current situation has helped Trump, hurt him, or had no effect.
1. Yougov Daily Tracking poll
We start this poll on May 30th, 3 days ago. Trump’s daily tracking showed him with this:
So, Trump was doing a bit better than the mean in Yougov’s polling universe, showing Trump underwater by 6%. The time period tested was May 28 through May 30th.
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The next day, on May 31st, the poll was showing a 12% margin for approval vs. disapproval.
No doubt Trump hit a very bad day for him on May 31st, which caused the approval/disapproval margin to double.
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The next day the tracking poll shows even worse numbers for Trump, by a bit.
So, it is a 13% disapproval, based on polling from May 30th through June 1st.
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And, just now released, we see Trump’s approval going down even further, now showing Trump at -15% approval.
To wit, Trump’s approval/disapproval margin in the Yougov universe sat at -6% on May 30th, and it has collapsed to -15% on June 2. In 3 days Trump’s approval margin collapsed by 9%.
42% approve, 57% disapprove, as of today.
Also:
Notice the extent to which those who Strongly Disapprove far outweigh those who just somewhat disapprove. It is almost at 50% by itself.
Ok, fine, but what about other polls? Maybe Yougov is kind of “not right”, or something.
Let’s consult the second daily tracking poll available to us:
2. Morning Consult Daily Tracker
So, we start the Morning Consult daily tracker also on May 30th (released):
Here we see Trump with an approval rating of 42% approve and 53% disapprove, for a margin of 11%. Pretty bad for him. Can’t get much worse, right?
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They then polled the time frame of May 29 through June 1, and found this.
Within 2 days Trump’s approval went down 1 point to 41% and his disapproval went up 3%, 41% to 56%, the disapproval margin gone up to -15%.
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They then released polling from May 31st through June 1st to better show the impact, if any, of the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd and the resulting unrest all over the country.
For just those 2 days polled it showed a further erosion of Trump’s approval, now down to -18%.
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So, here we have the case where Trump’s already dismal approval/disapproval margin, which was -11%, collapsed to -18% (approval 40%/disapproval 58%) in the span of just 3 days.
Trump is getting low marks for his handling of the crisis:
Less Than A Third Of Americans Approve Of Trump's Handling Of Protests
A CBS News poll released on Tuesday, found that just 32% of Americans approve of the president's response to the events and protests in Minneapolis, while a separate survey from Morning Consult determined that nearly half U.S. residents think Trump is doing a poor job of handling the situation.
It didn’t help Trump that yesterday Morning Consult measured the worst approval for Trump of his handling of the Coronavirus, but it is also apparent that Trump is hurt by the racial tensions and the upheaval we are currently experiencing, partly because he is seen as contributing greatly to the major racial strife we are finding ourselves in, long-term, since before he became President, and also short term as he tweeted out dangerous and life threatening things like “when the looting starts, the shooting starts.”
From Morning Consult:
Voter Sentiment on Trump’s Pandemic Response Hits New Low
41% approve of Trump’s handling of COVID-19; 53% disapprove
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78% of Republicans approve and 16% disapprove of President Trump’s COVID-19 response, a net 62 percentage points and his worst showing since tracking began in February.
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31% of voters said Trump is the most to blame for the spread of coronavirus into the United States, statistically unchanged from the previous survey.
Voter sentiment about President Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic reached a new nadir as reports emerged that the United States had surpassed 100,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19.
Forty-one percent of registered voters approve of Trump’s management of the public health crisis while 53 percent disapprove, according to a May 29-June 1 poll, his worst marks since Morning Consult began tracking public opinion on the pandemic in February. The survey polled 1,989 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Let’s get back to that CBS News poll that just came out:
3. CBS News POLL
Less Than A Third Of Americans Approve Of Trump's Handling Of Protests
President Trump received net negative ratings when Americans were asked about his response to the protests and events in Minneapolis.
Nearly half (49%) of respondents in the CBS poll said they disapprove of Trump's handling of recent events, while just 32% approve.
Only 32% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the protests. 49% disapprove. THAT is why Trump’s approval is cratering in the daily poll trackers.
Also:
When asked “are you more or less likely to vote for President Trump or Joe Biden as a result of George Floyd’s death and subsequent protests,” 45% said they are more likely to vote for Biden, with 31% more likely to vote for Trump.
By a 14% margin the issues surrounding George Floyd’s death and subsequent protests it makes people much more likely to vote for Biden over Trump. So, far from helping Trump this issue is obviously hurting him, and it just strengthens, solidifies and grows Biden’s support.
These are also bad numbers for Trump:
Half the country thinks Trump works against Blacks, only 25% think that he does well by Blacks.
The White Supremacist-in-Chief.
4. IPSOS POLL
Trump’s approval today:
Ipsos, too, shows Trump’s approval in freefall. Now at -17%.
This weekly poll showed Trump underwater by -12% a week ago. So, Trump’s numbers fell by 5% in one week, the week of the aftermath of George Floyd’s death and daily protests.
Ipsos: Most Americans sympathize with protests, disapprove of Trump's response - Reuters/Ipsos
A majority of Americans sympathize with nationwide protests over the death of an unarmed black man in police custody and disapprove of President Donald Trump’s response to the unrest, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.
The survey conducted on Monday and Tuesday found 64% of American adults were “sympathetic to people who are out protesting right now,” while 27% said they were not and 9% were unsure.
The poll underscored the political risks for Trump, who has adopted a hardline approach to the protests and threatened to deploy the U.S. military to quell violent dissent. The Republican president faces Democrat Joe Biden in November’s election.
More than 55% of Americans said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of the protests, including 40% who “strongly” disapproved, while just one-third said they approved - lower than his overall job approval of 39%, the poll showed.
Biden had a 6% lead over Trump in last week’s Ipsos survey, today that has grown to 10%.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Biden’s lead over Trump among registered voters expanded to 10 percentage points - the biggest margin since the former vice president became his party’s presumptive nominee in early April.
5. Monmouth Poll
Monmouth is out with their latest poll today, and their findings are quite interesting as it relates to this crisis:
Protestors’ Anger Justified Even If Actions May Not Be
Most Americans say the anger about black deaths at the hands of police officers that led to recent protests is fully justified, even if they do not feel the same about the actual actions. A majority of the public now agrees that the police are more likely to use excessive force with a black person than a white person in similar situations. Only one-third of the country held this opinion four years ago. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that the number of people who consider racial and ethnic discrimination to be a big problem has increased from about half in 2015 to nearly 3 in 4 now. In other results, President Donald Trump’s job rating has ticked down again as opinion that the country is headed down the wrong track surpasses 70% for the first time in Monmouth’s polling.
To almost 3 in 4 Americans racial and ethnic discrimination is a big problem. A majority of Americans feel that police are more likely ot use excessive force with a black person, only a third of Americans felt that way 4 years ago. So, this IS already much different from 4 years ago.
In other poll findings, the incumbent president’s overall job rating continues on a downward trend since hitting a high point three months ago. Trump’s performance now earns a 42% approve and 54% disapprove rating from the American public. He held a 43% to 51% rating in May, a 44% to 49% rating in April, and a 46% to 48% rating in March. His February rating, before the coronavirus pandemic spread, was 44% to 50%.
Here, in this monthly poll, we see Trump’s approval rating go steadily down, from his February approval rating of -6% to March’s -2% (rally around the flag temporary blip) to April’s -5%, May’s -8% to now showing him at -12%. Things continue to go badly for Trump, any poll you look at.
I had seen the earlier diary that Trump’s approval has actually gone down in the latest Civiqs polling data, but the massive extent of Trump’s approval loss as a DIRECT RESULT of the protests and murder of George Lloyd wasn’t clear to me until I saw the numbers change so strongly downward with every passing day in the daily trackers over these last 3 days, and until I saw the results of the CBS, Ipsos and Monmouth survey results on Trump’s handling of the protests, which clearly show that most Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling this, and only 32% approve of his handling of the crisis.