The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington DC held their downballot primaries on Tuesday, and you can find the results at the links for each state. We’ll have a comprehensive rundown in our next Digest.
Leading Off
● IA-04: White supremacist Rep. Steve King’s 18-year career in the House came to an inglorious end on Tuesday after he lost the Republican primary to state Sen. Randy Feenstra in western Iowa’s 4th Congressional District. Feenstra led 46-36 by the time we finalized the Digest for publication.
King’s downfall came over a year after House GOP leaders voted to strip him of his committee assignments after he defended white supremacy in an instantly notorious interview with the New York Times. King, who had been a weak fundraiser for years, immediately rendered himself toxic to influential donors, allowing Feenstra to outspend him decisively. Third-party groups, including the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce, also spent heavily on ads portraying King as ineffective and unable to help Donald Trump without his committee posts.
Campaign Action
Feenstra will take on 2018 Democratic nominee J. D. Scholten, who faced no primary opposition. Scholten held King to a surprisingly close 50-47 win last cycle and has once again raised large sums for his campaign, but he’ll have a very difficult time winning in a district that Donald Trump carried 61-35 against a Republican who lacks King’s considerable baggage. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican, though we’ll be re-evaluating that now that King is out of the picture.
King’s defeat marks the end of the line for a man who was, until very recently, an extremely influential power player in Iowa. King was first elected in 2002 to Iowa’s most conservative House seat, which was numbered the 5th District at the time, and he soon emerged as one of the most sought-after endorsements in the state’s quadrennial presidential caucuses.
King also became known in Congress for his far-right rhetoric, especially on immigration. In 2010, for example, he said that law enforcement officials could identify undocumented immigrants based on “[w]hat kind of clothes people wear … what kind of shoes people wear, what kind of accent they have … sometimes it’s just a sixth sense they can’t put their finger on.”
Three years later, he attacked students hoping to become American citizens by spewing, "For everyone who's a valedictorian, there's another 100 out there that weigh 130 pounds and they've got calves the size of cantaloupes because they're hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert."
Democrats ran credible campaigns against King in both 2012 and 2014 after his seat became bluer in redistricting, but the incumbent decisively won both times. In 2016, King also turned back a primary challenge from state Sen. Rick Bertrand 65-35, a result that made him look all the more secure in his western Iowa constituency.
But King's behavior grew even worse during the Trump era. Weeks before the 2018 election, voters learned that their congressman was rubbing shoulders with international white supremacist candidates and hate groups. This included an August meeting with the far-right Austrian Freedom Party—which has historical ties to the Nazi Party and more modern ones to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s party—that King took during a trip to eastern Europe. Gallingly, that junket was paid for by a Holocaust memorial group.
During this same trip, King also gave an interview to a website allied with the Freedom Party where he asked what diversity brings to America "that we don't have that is worth the price?" adding, "We have a lot of diversity within the U.S. already." King used that same interview to call Jewish philanthropist and Holocaust survivor George Soros a force behind the so-called "Great Replacement," a conspiracy theory prevalent on the extreme-right that white Europeans are being deliberately "replaced" by people of color in a scheme fomented by Jews.
While national party leaders and donors had, at best, only mildly rebuked King for years, they finally went further this time. The Minnesota dairy company Land O'Lakes, which was facing calls for boycotts over its donations to King, at last decided that it wouldn't contribute to his cause anymore. Even NRCC chair Steve Stivers, who just a day after the Pittsburgh synagogue massacre defended the anti-Semitic ads his committee had been running elsewhere, tweeted out a condemnation.
All of this bad publicity gave Scholten, who hadn’t attracted much notice, an opening. The Democrat ran ads that both hit King for his white nationalist ties but also took him to task for spending taxpayer money on foreign trips and private clubs. King himself only belatedly responded by running his first TV ad about a week-and-a-half before Election Day―a spot that was lazily recycled from his 2014 campaign. Still, it was a big surprise when King managed just a 3-point win, especially since GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds carried his district by a hefty 59-39 margin that same night.
King’s situation grew worse the following January when he asked a New York Times reporter, "White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization—how did that language become offensive?'" Congressional GOP leaders, perhaps sensing that King was much more of a liability than an asset after 2018, proceeded to at last strip him of all of his committee assignments, including his post on the important House Agriculture Committee.
While local Republicans turned a blind eye to King’s racism, his loss of influence was another matter. King himself seemed to recognize this and sought to duct-tape his self-inflicted wounds just a few weeks before primary day by insisting that he’d reached an agreement with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy that would lead to his committee assignments being reinstated. McCarthy eventually got around to contradicting him, and outside groups continued to hammer King as a weak congressman who couldn’t help Trump or his district. Ultimately, this argument—backed by a massive spending advantage—was enough to finally end King’s career.
Senate
● AK-Sen: Candidate filing closed Monday for Alaska's Aug. 18 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking a second term in what is usually a reliably red state, and he faces only minor intra-party opposition. State and national Democrats have consolidated behind an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who also doesn't face any high-profile opposition in the Democratic primary. If Gross wins Team Blue's nomination, he would be identified on the general election ballot with both a "U" for unaffiliated and as the "Alaska Democratic Party Nominee."
Gross, who has self-funded a portion of his campaign, has also raised a notable amount of money from donors, though Sullivan still ended March with a wide $4.6 million to $2 million cash-on-hand lead. While Gross may narrow that gap, it's going to be very difficult for him to win in a state that's backed every Republican presidential nominee by double digits since 1996. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Republican.
● AZ-Sen: The Democratic group Majority Forward is putting six figures behind a TV ad buy attacking Republican Sen. Martha McSally over the response to the coronavirus pandemic. Their ad features a doctor calling out the lack of available tests and other supplies and blaming McSally for failing to support legislation to give healthcare workers what they need. The ad also hits McSally for voting to "deny insurance for people with pre-existing conditions."
On the GOP side, the NRSC is launching its first ad against Democrat Mark Kelly. Their spot dials up the xenophobia, hitting Kelly for having a Chinese-language version of his introductory video. The GOP also tenuously claims Kelly's business is partly owned by "a Chinese firm called an arm of the Chinese Communist Party" to guilt him by association.
That incendiary charge refers to Kelly's investments in a company called World View Enterprises, which The Arizona Republic describes as an Arizona-based firm that "uses balloons for launching lower-altitude "stratollites" for commercial and governmental mapping and surveillance." The GOP is citing a Chinese tech company called Tencent Holdings, which has invested in World View, to try to argue that Kelly is a secret stooge for China. However, World View's CEO defended his firm by noting that it has contracts with NASA and the Defense Department, the latter of which cleared it for approval after investigating it for potential foreign interference.
● CO-Sen: Republican Sen. Cory Gardner's latest TV ad touts his accomplishments during his tenure, citing news articles detailing how he supposedly protected public lands and water and secured the new "space command" headquarters for the military in Colorado Springs. The ad completely avoids all highly partisan issues.
● KS-Sen: Candidate filing closed Monday for Kansas’ Aug. 4 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
On behalf of Daily Kos, Civiqs is out with a poll testing Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier, who doesn’t face any serious intra-party opposition, in hypothetical contests against her three likeliest Republican opponents:
- 42-41 vs. 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach
- 41-40 vs. businessman Bob Hamilton
- 41-42 vs. Rep. Roger Marshall
The sample also shows Donald Trump winning 52-40 in a state he carried 56-36 four years ago.
It’s quite surprising to see Bollier running about the same against all three Republicans, especially since the NRSC and other establishment groups have long been sounding the alarm that Kobach could jeopardize the party’s hold on retiring Sen. Pat Roberts’ seat. Civiqs does show Kobach with a miserable 35-54 favorable rating compared to Marshall’s 31-29 score (Hamilton is right in the middle with a 21-29 rating), but that may not stop him from winning a general election in this red state.
Indeed, Civiqs finds that the 18% of respondents who say they haven't made up their minds or are supporting “someone else” in a Bollier/Kobach matchup back Trump over Joe Biden by a massive 70-10 margin. That means that, while there are plenty of undecideds at the moment, this group would be likely to break for the GOP nominee—even if it's Kobach—as we get closer to November. Kobach, who lost the 2018 governor’s race 48-43, may still turn out to be awful enough to put this seat in play if he’s nominated, but Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Republican.
Civiqs also takes a look at the GOP primary and finds Kobach leading Marshall 35-26. Hamilton is in third place with 15% while Kansas Turnpike Authority chair Dave Lindstrom brings up the rear with just 4%. This portion of the poll sampled 419 GOP primary voters.
The NRSC, which spent well over a year unsuccessfully trying to recruit U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has not publicly taken sides in the primary, though it has signaled in recent days that it wants Marshall to prevail. The committee recently released numbers from an internal poll that showed Marshall performing considerably better than Kobach in a general election against Bollier.
However, the NRSC did not identify the name of its pollster, which is a problem. As we’ve written before, Daily Kos Elections requires the pollster’s name in order to be included in the Digest: Most pollsters have reputations, some good and some bad, and without knowing who conducted a poll, we have no way to place it the context of that pollster's other work.
● ME-Sen: The conservative group One Nation has debuted a new TV ad supporting Republican Sen. Susan Collins as part of their $510,000 ad buy. Their spot shows two physicians praising Collins for supposedly passing legislation to provide healthcare workers with the supplies they need to fight the pandemic.
● MI-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with the newest edition of its monthly survey for the progressive group Progress Michigan, and it finds little change from late April. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters leads Republican John James 48-39 compared to 46-37 one month ago, while Joe Biden leads Donald Trump 50-44. Most recent polls have also given Peters a clear lead.
The NRSC is hoping to change that, though, and it's launched a month-long $1.5 million TV buy against Peters. The opening commercial argues that "Gary Peters and his family invested in companies that outsourced nearly 1,000 Michigan jobs to foreign countries." Peters' campaign quickly released a fact-check declaring that the senator has "spearheaded legislation to hold companies that are outsourcing jobs accountable" and has voted "for multiple amendments to prevent U.S. companies from outsourcing."
● Senate: The conservative dark money group One Nation has announced that it has reserved $27 million in summer TV and radio ads in six GOP-held seats:
- Arizona (Martha McSally): $3.3 million, starts Aug. 5
- Colorado (Cory Gardner): $2.6 million, starts July 8
- Iowa (Joni Ernst): $5.3 million, starts June 23
- Maine (Susan Collins): $1.9 million, starts July 17
- Montana (Steve Daines): $3.9 million, starts June 23
- North Carolina (Thom Tillis): $10.2 million, starts June 23
Gubernatorial
● UT-Gov: Scott Rasmussen, polling on behalf of the Deseret News and University of Utah, gives Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox a small 28-24 edge over ex-Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman in the June 30 GOP primary. Former state House Speaker Greg Hughes is in third place with 18%, while businessman Thomas Wright takes just 4% of the vote. (The article leads with the results from the portion of the sample that says they're "certain to vote," a group that favors Cox over Huntsman 30-23; the lieutenant governor's lead drops when respondents who say they're "very likely" to vote are included.)
House
● AK-AL: Republican Rep. Don Young, who has held this statewide seat since 1973, defeated education advocate Alyse Galvin by a modest 53-47 last cycle, and Galvin is seeking a rematch. Just like in 2018, Galvin is seeking the Democratic nomination while remaining an independent, and she again faces no serious primary opposition.
Galvin gave Young his closest race in a decade last time, and she ended March with a $961,000 to $804,000 cash-on-hand lead. However, while plenty of Alaskans may be growing tired of Young, who has served in the House longer than any other sitting representative (and is the eighth-longest serving House member in American history), he'll still be tough to beat in this 53-38 Trump seat. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
● HI-02: State Sen. Kai Kahele picked up an endorsement on Tuesday from Sen. Mazie Hirono for the August Democratic primary.
● KS-01: Four Republicans ended up filing to succeed Senate candidate Roger Marshall in this safely red seat in western Kansas, though only two of them look serious. Finney County Commissioner Bill Clifford, who has self-funded most of his campaign, ended March with a $567,000 to $493,000 cash-on-hand lead over former Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann. The other two contenders, Iraq War veteran Jerry Molstad and art gallery owner Michael Soetaert, did not report raising any money.
● KS-02: Freshman GOP Rep. Steve Watkins, who is currently under investigation by Shawnee County authorities for allegedly committing voter fraud last year, faces a serious primary challenge from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner. However, Watkins' prospects may have improved on Monday when Dennis Taylor, a former official in the Brownback administration, entered the race, a move that could cost LaTurner some crucial votes.
On the Democratic side, Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla doesn't face any strong opposition. This seat, which includes Topeka and surrounding rural areas, favored Donald Trump 56-37, but Watkins won just 48-47 during the 2018 Democratic wave. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
● KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids unseated GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder 54-44 last cycle, and five Republicans are running to try to retake this suburban Kansas City seat.
Former state party chair Amanda Adkins ended March with a modest $490,000 to $404,000 cash-on-hand lead over Sara Hart Weir, the former head of the National Down Syndrome Society. Adrienne Vallejo Foster, a former U.S. Small Business Administration official, was well behind with just $32,000 to spend, while businessman Mike Beehler had a mere $4,000 in the bank. A fifth candidate, real estate investor Tom Love, entered the race just before Monday's filing deadline.
Davids herself had a hefty $1.9 million available to defend herself. So far, no major outside groups on either side have booked TV time in Kansas City, which covers the entire district, though there's still plenty of time for that to change. This seat swung from 54-44 Romney to 47-46 Clinton, and Daily Kos Elections rates it as Lean Democratic.
● TX-13: The hardline anti-tax Club for Growth is launching a $179,000 TV ad buy on behalf of former White House chief physician Ronny Jackson ahead of the July 14 Republican primary runoff against lobbyist Josh Winegarner. The ad spotlights Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" of Jackson, with the ad consisting largely of footage of Trump praising Jackson.
● TX-23: Republican pollster Remington Research Group has released a survey that was not on behalf of any client, and it shows Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones with a 45-43 lead over Navy veteran Tony Gonzales, who is the favorite of national Republicans in the July 14 primary runoff. This is the first poll we've seen here this cycle.
● TX-24: The Voter Protection Project, which is funded primarily by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' political arm, has unveiled a six-figure mail campaign on behalf of educator Candace Valenzuela ahead of the Democratic primary runoff against 2018 state agriculture secretary nominee Kim Olson on July 14.
Their first mailer calls Olson's "time in charge of Dallas schools" as the Dallas Independent School District's human resource director "a complete disaster" and says she presided over the "largest fiscal crisis in district history." However, Olson's campaign argues that her department didn't have authority over the budget process, and Olson's tenure from 2007 to 2009 coincided with the Great Recession hurting local government finances across the country.
● Wisconsin: Candidate filing closed Monday for Wisconsin's Aug. 11 primaries, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
● WI-03: While the NRCC tried to recruit a viable candidate to take on longtime Democratic Rep. Ron Kind in this 49-45 Trump seat, Team Red appears to have once again fallen fall short. Five Republicans ended up filing, but there's no indication that any of them can put up a serious fight. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Democratic.
● WI-05: Longtime GOP Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner is retiring from this safely red seat in the Milwaukee suburbs, and state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald faces no serious opposition in the primary to succeed him. Fitzgerald's only intra-party opponent is businessman Cliff DeTemple, who has generated very little attention.
● WI-06: GOP Rep. Glenn Grothman faces a challenge from former Democratic state Sen. Jess King, but he's unlikely to have much trouble here. Donald Trump carried this seat 56-39, and Grothman ended March with a huge $728,000 to $56,000 cash-on-hand lead. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Republican.
● WI-07: Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany beat Democrat Tricia Zunker 57-43 in last month's special election, and Zunker is seeking a rematch. This seat backed Donald Trump 58-37, and Daily Kos Elections rates it as Safe Republican.
● WI-08: GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher faces a challenge from Democratic state Rep. Amanda Stuck, but this is another Wisconsin seat that we rate as Safe Republican. This northeast Wisconsin seat moved from just 51-48 Romney to 56-39 Trump, and Gallagher ended March with a $2.1 million to $21,000 cash-on-hand lead.