5-second Takeaway
The Threshold states are MT, NC, IA. The Hot Contests are MT, NC, KS, IA, GA-special, SC and KY.
Combined with my Presidential status, the key overall states are NC, GA, IA and MT.
It’s a snapshot of polls. Not a prediction.
Only a few states have been polled for the Senate race since May 24, but there are 2 small, but big, changes.
New polls
SC This is exciting. Not just a fund-raising teaser, Civiqs (May 23-26) actually shows Jaime Harrison tied with Lindsey Graham! Leans R to Tossup
NC This is frustrating. North Carolina state Senator Cal Cunningham had big leads in April and May, but is now swapping 2% leads with Sen. Tillis. Leans D to Tossup.
KS Civiqs puts Dr. Barbara Bollier at +1% vs. Kobach and Hamilton and at -1% vs. Marshall. Remains Tossup
ME Got first poll since Mar 5 on this marquee match, from an outfit called Victory Geek on May 28. It shows Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon continuing her trajectory pulling away from Sen. Collins. Only one poll per month, but there’s 3 of them, so we can call it a trend now. Feb +1%, Mar +4%, late May +9%. MOE was 5.6%, so this is just over the likely threshold of 1.5 MOE. Leans to Likely D
AZ Pollsters continue to show Capt. Mark Kelly with a 10 to 13% lead over appointed Sen. McSally. On the cusp of 3 x MOE, the dividing line between Likely and Safe. Still Safe D, barely
MI PPP shows Sen. Gary Peters resuming a 9 point lead. Leans D to Likely D
These were the only updated Senate races, but then it’s only been 12 days.
Senate Seats
Party |
No election |
+safe |
+Likely |
+Leans
|
Dem caucus |
35 |
44 |
47 |
50 |
Republican |
30 |
41 |
43 |
44 |
To Be decided |
35 |
15 |
10 |
6 |