On behalf of Daily Kos, Civiqs is out with a survey that gives Democrat Theresa Greenfield a 48-45 lead over GOP Sen. Joni Ernst as Donald Trump and Joe Biden are deadlocked in Iowa 46-46. A recent survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for Greenfield’s allies at EMILY’s List showed the Democrat ahead by a similar 45-43 as Trump led 48-47.
Perhaps the most ominous sign for the GOP is the presidential numbers. Donald Trump carried Iowa by a decisive 51-42 margin four years ago, and while Democrats gained ground here in 2018, Trump still looked like the favorite to take the state again. If Trump ends up struggling to win the Hawkeye State’s six electoral votes, though, Ernst also could have problems. Civiqs gives Ernst a bad 39-52 favorable rating compared to Greenfield’s 39-31 score, so Ernst may struggle to take over enough crossover voters to survive a Trump defeat.
However, the NRSC is now up with its first TV ad here as it attempts to drive Greenfield’s numbers down early. The opening commercial argues that Greenfield ran a “failed homebuilding business” that “folded,” though the NRSC unsurprisingly doesn’t note that her company’s travails occurred in the midst of the Great Recession.
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