This New poll from Your Voice Ohio puts Biden up by 4 (46/42) with MOE of 3 and a sample of a bit over 1,000. However, several unknowns and issues.
1. Poll was out there for several weeks, which most students of polling think is a bad idea
2. I was unable to find any cross-tabs, so no way of knowing how representative the sample was or how the vote broke out demographically.
3. No rating from 538, so no idea about reliability
All that being said, some things that were noted:
1. Biden enthusiasm higher than trump’s (good)
2. Undecideds are closer to trump supporters on issues (economy over COVID) (bad)
From the article:
Voters who backed Mr. Trump ranked the economy as their top issue, followed by coronavirus and health care. For Mr. Biden, it was coronavirus, the economy, and health care for all respondents besides the strongest supporters, who ranked health care second.
The 6 percent of undecided voters surveyed aligned with Mr. Trump’s backers on their top issues. Another 6 percent who said they are likely to vote for a candidate other than Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden cited the economy, coronavirus, racism, and social services.
Mr. Biden’s strongest backers also cited racism, criminal justice, and the environment as priorities, while Mr. Trump’s chose education, foreign affairs, infrastructure, and immigration.
Strikingly, the poll also revealed an enthusiasm gap between Mr. Biden’s and Mr. Trump’s supporters. Nearly 31 percent said they strongly supported Mr. Biden, versus 26 percent for Mr. Trump. The percentage of moderate and weak support for both candidates was roughly the same.
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The analysis of the undecideds and others suggests that this is probably closer than a 4 point race, but being this close in Ohio is good for us and bad for trump.