Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/9/2009-11/12/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 56 (55) | 38 (38) | +1 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 39 (38) | 52 (53) | +2 |
REID: | 32 (33) | 57 (56) | -2 |
McCONNELL: | 15 (16) | 67 (66) | -2 |
BOEHNER: | 14 (15) | 65 (63) | -3 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 41 (40) | 52 (53) | +2 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 14 (15) | 71 (70) | -2 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 43 (42) | 49 (50) | +2 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 22 (23) | 67 (66) | -2 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
Last week, when the Republicans had a very good polling week in our Daily Kos State of the Nation tracking poll, the speculation was on the permanence of that movement. Would it be a transient bounce, lasting only as long as the afterglow of the fawning media post-election? Or would it represent a more systemic shift that had some legs and brought the Democratic Party and the GOP closer to parity?
The uniform movement seen this week, even if those changes were rather incremental, seems to suggest the former solution rather than the latter.
Of course, as everyone well knows, there was a major news event in the interim. Saturday's passage in the House of Health Care Reform, Republicans have crowed all week, was bound to be an albatross around the necks of the Democrats, leading them into a downward spiral that would culminate in electoral doom in 2010.
It was for that reason that NBC's Chuck Todd quipped on Twitter during last week's HCR debate: "Want to stump a GOP strategist: Ask them their preference: health care passes or fails?"
Now, of course, this is just one poll and it is just one week. But this is too uniform to simply chalk up to random noise, just like last week's movement in favor of the Republicans. Every Democrat not named Harry Reid saw improving numbers this week, as Republicans forfeited back all of the gains they made last week (except for the GOP at large, which gave back half of their sizeable gains from last week).
It is far too early, and the shifts far too incremental, to unilaterally declare health care a "winner" for the Democrats. But if it is a sure loser for them, as some in the tradmed have suggested, there appears to be a delayed reaction to it.
Looking at where the changes came from this week, it seems to be equal parts base movement and shifts among Independents. For John Boehner, the shift was largest among Independents, where he went from 70% disapproval to 73% disapproval. For her House counterpart Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, there was a tiny bump upward with Independents (from 26/68 to 27/67), and a slightly larger one with her base (from 81/8 to 83/7).
The generic ballot also moved in the Democratic direction, but only by a single point. The Democrats hold a 36-30 lead.