In light of the handwringing from yesterday's narrowing poll numbers, here's a dose of good news.  Both the presidential and Senate races here in North Carolina are still as tight as can be, according to Insider Advantage.

On the presidential side, McCain has 45 percent to Obama's 43 percent.  As has been the case with virtually every presidential poll from here in the past few months, that's about the only good news in this poll for McCain.  On the Senate side, it's a flat-footed tie--40 percent apiece for Liddy Dole and Kay Hagan (with Dole having a mere 0.1 point lead unrounded).

More analysis after the jump ...

Two front pagers talking about the polls yesterday, including Markos himself.  Both were correct in their analyses.  But I believe two critical aspects weren't addressed.  And let me just say, I'm not one of those rose-colored-glasses, everything's-great-for-Obama spinners.  Nor am I one of those gloom and doomers ready to leap from the Golden Gate Bridge just because Zogby says McCain's ahead by 5%.  Rather, I try to be as objective in my analysis as I can.  And the bottom line, from what I can see, is that although the poll averages are tightening some, the race is virtually unmoved from where it was when Obama's lead was proclaimed to be larger than it is now.  Here's why...

This will be a very short diary because I have to go.   But there are rumors (I just heard it on CNN) that Obama may announce his VP choice today.   I have been thinking about it and my opinion is that the best choice for Obama will be Hillary.   She would be certainly better than Bayh or Biden and she will unify the party better.   And she would certainly be good in attacking McCain.

Obama gave Time's Karen Tumulty some interesting tidbits about what his VP selection (both the process and the chosen nominee, I guess) would reveal about him as a candidate (http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/08/obamas_vp_the_candidate_drops.html). He said he likes to surround himself with people who

1. aren't press hounds; subordinate their own egos to the job of making positive change;

2. have strengths that are complementary to (i.r., different from) Obama's;

3. are independent,not yes-men.

Tumulty figures that, if we take Obama at his word, these three points add up to Bayh or a surprise candidate. A couple of thoughts on who such a "susprise" could be:

This is good news.  Barack Obama is presenting an economic populist message that I believe will help propel him to the White House, along with showing more anger and fight.  And he's talking about how the American Dream is slipping away for many.  Yesterday, in Martinsville, Va, Obama said:

This election is about "deciding right here and right now that we are gonna fight to make government accountable to the American people to make sure that the special interests aren’t dominating Washington," Obama told the crowd of about 350 here at a community college in the southern part of the state.

"That’s why I promise you this: that if you will vote for me, if you give me that opportunity, if you give me that chance, that I will fight for you every single day. I will wake up in that White House thinking about the people of Martinsville and the people of Henry County and how I can make your life better"

msnbc.con: First Read

More, with video, after the fold.

So Bush is about to "cut and run":

U.S. and Iraqi negotiators reached agreement on a security deal that calls for American military forces to leave Iraq's cities by next summer as a prelude to a full withdrawal from the country, according to senior American officials.

The draft agreement sets 2011 as the date by which all remaining U.S. troops will leave Iraq...

Teams of American and Iraqi negotiators spent months haggling over the deal, which represents a remarkable turnaround from just a few months ago, when talk of timetables and deadlines was routinely dismissed by the Bush administration and other Republicans in Washington...

President George W. Bush is almost certain to accept the agreement, according to U.S. officials. The administration believes that the deal doesn't require congressional approval and won't present it to U.S. lawmakers.

Cable news network CNN recently aired a back to back biography feature on presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama. Obama's background is pretty well known to the public. (or at least to me). Of the two biographies, I found the McCain feature much more interesting. Considering his naval aviation history and fast rise through Washington, McCain has experienced and lived through some incredible things in his life. Doing anything on an aircraft carrier is impressive to me. Especially landing a jet on one.

At least that's what Donald Rumsfeld told me. Actually I think it's important to recognize this fact before anything else. It leaves you two options. Gear your campaign to the current electorate or change the electorate. Much has been written about how W was able to change the electorate by appealing to the religious right. If Obama is similarly successful with the youth vote, the African American vote and the disaffected vote, this election will be a landslide. However that is a big if. And make no mistake about it, the Republican party will do everything in its power to discourage turnout in those communities. So it would be foolish to ignore strategies that involve the current electorate.

Sorry for another VP diary, and a short one at that, but this might be big news:

In what will be his fifth visit to Montana as a presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama will make a campaign stop Tuesday in Billings.

Obama and his campaign will then spend the night in Billings before moving on toward the Democratic Nation-al Convention in Denver. Obama's campaign has not yet announced the visit, but the trip was confirmed by several sources with knowledge of the candidate's plans.

Obama will accept the Democratic nomination for president Thursday night at Invesco Field in Denver. He plans to announce his running mate in the next few days and campaign with him or her beginning Saturday in Illinois.

The party announced Wednesday night that Art Noonan, executive director of the Montana Democratic Party, will hold a press conference today to make a "major announcement on the presidential campaign here in Montana." The press conference is at 10:30 a.m. at 316 Eighth St. in Helena.

Obama returning to Billings

Rare Video: Barack Obama Circa 1995

Curious to see what Barack Obama was like before he got into politics?

via: http://www.oldmanmccain.com/...

Obama's VP Pick: Kathleen Sebelius; McCain's VP Pick: Mark Sanford. These people are not only on the short list of VP picks, but both were published Bilderberg attendees in 2008. Both also have unusual domain name registrations, and Kathleen Sebelius's name was leaked by a marketing company.

I read the official Bilderberg 2008 report put out by Jim Tucker and American Free Press, which provides analysis of leaked information and published information on the Bilberberg meetings.

http://www.americanfreepress.net/...

Never saw anything like this. I went to Real Clear Politics tonight, and here's the top three headlines they're featuring, all in a row:

Obama: In Need of a Game Changer - David Gergen, CNN
Conventions Need a Believable Script - Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal
Obama Needs a Narrative - Steven Stark, Boston Phoenix

All of the sudden, everybody and his little dog is telling Obama what he needs, including Karl Rove.

Well, thank you all for your concern. But I already know what Obama needs, I already said so in a diary earlier this week--and thank God some people at the Obama campaign woke up and now agree. Look at this:
(continued)

I'm starting this diary with the assumption that magical ponies are not going to gallop out of Denver to rescue the Obama campaign.
Agreed, the Democratic party itself will be energized by the convention.  But the media coverage of Denver will invariably disappoint.
And the Vice-President choices are so controversial that the pick, when it is finally made, will generate bad press as well as good.
And then it will be September ...and no ponies to be found anywhere.
I know, I know, I can hear it already --"oh, don't worry! Mere bloggers don't understand it but of course Obama's campaign knows what they're doing!"  
But while his staff apparently are wonderful people, disciplined, loyal, knowledgeable, etc. etc, its becoming pretty clear they're in over their heads.  They've been distracted by style ("Look, Ma, no 527s!") and technique ("we have offices in 50 states!") and they've lost focus on substance.
It's time to stop with the wishful thinking.
(more after the jump)

Obama will not announce a VP in the morning.  Why?  Because his supporters in Hawaii will be sleeping.  Since Hawaii is six hours behind New York, the earliest Obama can announce on Thursday or Friday is 2:00 p.m. EST.  This would make it 8:00 a.m. in Hawaii, which is still bright and early for many.

I expect Obama to announce between the times of 2pm - 9pm EST.

You know I try and remain optimistic.
Everyone says not to speak ill of the Clintons for purposes of unity. Well I cant hold my tonuge any longer. HRC doesnt really want to unify.

You know its one thing to claim unity to a group of Obama supporters...but what is she doing to bring her supporters over?

Heres the latest:

Kevin Drum has the breaking news from the Wall Street Journal:

U.S. and Iraqi negotiators reached agreement on a security deal that calls for American military forces to leave Iraq's cities by next summer as a prelude to a full withdrawal from the country, according to senior American officials.

The draft agreement sets 2011 as the date by which all remaining U.S. troops will leave Iraq, according to Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed al-Haj Humood and other people familiar with the matter.

...."The talking is done," one U.S. official said late Wednesday night. "Now the decision makers choose whether to give it a thumbs up or a thumbs down."

....U.S. President George W. Bush is almost certain to accept the agreement, according to U.S. officials. The administration believes that the deal doesn't require congressional approval and won't present it to U.S. lawmakers.

Has Dana Milbank been fired from the WaPo?

The last time Milbank appears on their website is 8/7/08, where he pointedly refused to apologize for the Obama quote:

My colleague Jonathan Weisman and I believe the quote was correct as written, and that this supposed "context" is a recreation, after-the-fact, by Democratic aides who were worried about how the quote looked. Perhaps Obama didn't mean for it to come out that way, but there's every reason to believe it did. The Post's ombudsman will be writing about it this weekend, I think, so we'll see what she has to say.

Here is why I am posting this journal, my father, who's to the left of even Ted Kennedy on most issues, gave a generous contribution to John McCain after seeing a CNN special on John McCain's term as a prisoner of war, how he reenlisted even after being shot down, on how he was tortured, and how he refused to be released early because of his father's status inspite of the torture.

The man IS a patriot. And liberals respect them more than conservatives. ANY attempt to smear John McCain about his time as a prisoner of war WILL backfire in a big way. Don't even think about going that route. The man deserves to be respected for his service.

The strategy to win must be based on what a John McCain presidency would look like. Highlight the policies that John McCain openly supports, the ones he openly opposes, and make the campaign about that.

There's a lot of people saying that Obama should go full force personally negative on John McCain, attacking the man's character.

That's a risky, and almost foolhardy path to take.

There is nothing you can say to dimune McCain's character after his refusal to be released from prison early.