3 to 1 Match – Breaking from Losing Strategy in Red Congressional Districts
There is a 3 to 1 Match in a GOTV Campaign targeting entrenched GOP incumbents in Texas. bit.ly/...
This campaign targets districts which have been written off by the DNC without any recent polling actually being conducted or the “Trump Factor” seriously considered. It targets districts with some of our nation’s most obnoxious GOP Congressional Incumbents.
Trump Effect in The South
In the Bible belt, Trump’s lack of morality, his wife’s nude photo spreads, his court case on child rape, his bullying demeanor, pride in avoiding paying any Federal Income Tax for decades and much of his other on-air statements has severed many folks from loyalty to the Republican Party. Some are not enthusiastic about the Democratic Party but see Trump as the more dangerous of the choices. Others are very enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton and see her as the best choice period. High profile Republicans in Texas have issued statements that they are voting for the Democrat for President. Every living President and First Lady has stated that they are voting for Hillary Clinton. The two George Bush’s created much of the GOP machine which turned Texas from Blue to Red. Both of them are voting Democratic this year. This is a big deal in a state such as Texas, yet the pundits continue to write off the state as too Red to Win. I think this is short-sighted.
Trump was in trouble in Texas before the tapes of his bragging about sexually assaulting women who rebuffed his advances surfaced.
Whether former GOP voters merely stay home or switch parties, it is a very interesting election year. There is hope for Democrats in districts where Democrats have not won in decades. However, we must capitalize on the opportunity instead of discouraging donors from helping candidates fight the hard fights if we are to change the political landscape of our nation.
It frustrates me to see predictions made without any polling conducted in US House Districts occupied by multi-term GOP incumbents. Pundits write off these districts and redline them, discouraging donors from investing resources in GOTV efforts there. Voters receive little (or no Democratic campaign messages). Liberal voters go underground. Without robust GOTV efforts, turn-out drops as those who previously voted Democratic receive fewer and fewer invitations to support Democratic candidates. These districts appear more conservative than the inhabitants truly are. In reality, in many of these districts, the ideology of the residents has not changed nearly as much as the effectiveness of the strategy of one party and the abandonment of the turf by the Democratic Party. Fearing losing their jobs in the next election cycle, some local leaders, switch to the party which won the most seats in the prior election. As Democratic Party Primary ballots contain fewer and fewer contested races, more local citizens cross over and vote where there are more contested raced to be decided, even if that party does not reflect their political ideology. They split their tickets in the General Election, but having such low turn-outs in the Primary hampers future candidates when trying to target likely Democratic voters. Battling incumbents of another party, these campaigns are discriminated against by donors who follow the lead of pundits (many of whom base their predictions on the party of the incumbent rather than on actual polling data). Resources from those districts migrate to other easier to win districts and the cycle is perpetrated. Incumbency allows greater input in how district lines are drawn. This encourages pundits to further write off these districts and the people who inhabit them. Even though many of the people remain disgusted with the party in power, they are abandoned by their party and candidates are discouraged from running in those districts by the very people who should be recruiting and supporting them.
This year is no different despite being different in almost every conceivable way. Even with the TRUMP factor, the DNC, and other organizations continue discouraging donors from supporting qualified, incredibly competent, hard-working, popular candidates who are challenging obnoxious GOP incumbents in the harder to win Congressional Districts.
2016 is the best opportunity we have had in decades to crack past the red façade in states like Texas.
On the ground, working with challenger US House campaigns in Texas, I have more hope than most people who look at the state from outside. Texas is a challenge on many fronts. Many of the districts are geographically larger than several states, making them resource intensive to work. Since February 2015 I have been traveling the state working with challenger campaigns. In 2014, I was Chief of Staff/Strategist for the candidate who challenged Joe Barton in the US Texas 6th District. That race convinced me that there is hope in Texas. Looking at past outcomes and accounting for everything we did and didn’t do which should be done or avoided in a Congressional Race, Joe Barton appeared so entrenched that it was hopeless to challenge him. Yet with only $14K for the Primary and General Election combined, and with no advertising expenditures in the Primary, David Cozad got the highest percentage of votes of any non-incumbent Democrat challenging a multi-term Republican congressman in Texas. He was drafted to run only days before the filing deadline. There was no advertising budget to even run local newspaper or for direct mail in Arlington, which contains the largest number of voters in the US-TX6th. Despite all the negative, our work, combined with the efforts of other Democratic candidates running in Tarrant County, transformed Arlington from deep Red to Purple. Some races build political infrastructure even if they do not take the seats. Ruby Woolridge, who won a three way contested primary for the Democratic Nomination in 2016, inherits a district where the soil was “tilled” by the prior nominee. The Democratic Party leadership does not take this into account when allocating resources. The Democratic Party discourages investment in races which will not be the easiest to win, continuing a failed strategy which has resulted in dwindling numbers of Democratic incumbents in both houses of Congress. This thinking entrenches the least qualified, least worthy incumbents in to seats of power which abuse the citizens of this nation.
Some folks ask me why I fight so hard, and continue so long in the trenches when the outcome is so bleak. I see things up close and have a different perspective than many other people. Here are some snapshots into Texas US Congressional Districts:
The US Texas 6th
After the districts in the DFW Metroplex were redrawn to prevent Martin Frost from becoming Speaker of the House, my home got drawn into the US TX 6th. This was the seat held by Phil Gramm when he decided to become the advocate for Ronald Reagan’s Trickle –Down Economics. He became a folk-hero of sorts when he infuriated the Speaker of the House. Realized that his goose was cooked in the Democratic Party, Gramm resigned as a Democrat and ran as a Republican. He got cast by the media as an independent thinker in the mold of “John Wayne” instead of being just another “yes man” for the party. Years later it is obvious that the policies of Reagan, which Gramm
helped to get passed by Congress, have not worked. Gramm is gone and his successor is merely a mouthpiece for the fossil fuel industry.
Barton doesn’t just oppose raising them minimum wage, he wants to abolish it. He also wants to abolish the EPA and OSHA.
For many years, Barton’s campaign war chest was rich with fossil fuel dollars. Then he blew off his mouth while the Gulf Coast was reeling from the worst man-made environmental disaster in American History. Apologizing to British Petroleum for our President requiring them to put a fraction of the funds necessary to remedy the damage into escrow lost Barton the Chairmanship of the House Energy Committee. He became less powerful and he began receiving fewer donations. As he received fewer donations, he had less money to pass along to other candidates. As passed less money along to other candidates, he lost more influence. Now he merely occupies a seat (that is when he bothers to show up on the floor at all). Barton has one of the worst attendance records in the House and is very unpopular in his district. Yet the lack of funding for challengers keeps him in office.
Shirley McKellar is challenging Louie Gohmert (R) for the US TX 1st District Congressional seat.
In 2014, when you combine the votes for his Republican challenger, the Libertarian and the Democrat, more people voted against Barton in 2014 Primaries in his home county (Ellis) in all precincts except three! That shows that he is not popular with most voters. Voters must hear about their alternatives. They need information. They need messaging from different sources to turn out. Most registered voters in Ellis, Navarro and Tarrant counties stayed home during the primary and during the General Election the top of the ticket had no coattail. Yet, the district turned purple. I see this as hope. I see this as encouragement to continue investing in candidates, especially in district that are going to be hard to win.
Instead, we only channel resource to those that appear to be “sure bets.” This perpetuates the status quo. That is ok when those in office are responsible. In Texas, that is not the case in most Districts. That gives the nation people like Louie Gomer and Blake Parenthood making decisions for everyone in this nation. A better strategy would be for those districts which are secure to support candidates who are challenging obnoxious incumbent in hard-to-win districts. Those dollars may not result in winning the seats in one election cycle. However, with work, and continued investment, the infrastructure improves. There becomes less disparity between the campaign infrastructure of complacent incumbents and determined challengers. This year, Ruby Woolridge is challenging Joe Barton in the Texas 6th. I am looking forward to examining precinct by precinct turn-out this November and comparing it to 2014. In 2014 the Democratic nominee, with very little cash to spend, carried all precincts in SE Tarrant County, and in Meadowbrook and Handley in E Fort Worth. Some precincts north of I-30 in Arlington voted majority Democratic for the first time in over a decade. Arlington, which had been seen as “Too Red to Work” for Democrats, is now viewed as purple despite having no Democrats on the City Council.
The US-TX 1st District
This is truly an interesting dichotomy. Louie Gohmert is noted for being one of the “most stupid” men in Congress by many pundits. (Google him if you doubt this statement). Yet he continues to win year after year. Even though I live in Arlington, my families’ roots go back to 1848 in that district. I have actively worked in Dr. Shirley McKellar’s campaign in that district this year. She is the most articulate, persistent Democratic Congressional Nominee we have in Texas. A former US Army Nurse Corp officer, with a PhD, McKellar is descended from one of Texas’ premier Black business families. Her great-grandfather founded and operated the Erwing Rose Nursery business in Tyler, which provided most of the roses for the Tyler Rose parade (and for other events throughout much of the USA.).
One of East Texas’ Newspaper publishers said: “If we fact checked Gohmert, we wouldn’t have time to do anything else!” What flies out of Gohmert’s mouth is frequently so far from reality that he is known as “Liar,Liar Louie Gohmert” in the district and as “Congress’s Most Stupid Member” by some outside of the district.
During McKellar’s 18 years of active duty service she implemented much of the women’s health care for the European Theater. Deployed to the Middle East on 9-11, she was injured after 18 months and returned home a wounded warrior. She returned to Brooks Military Hospital in San Antonio (where she had done some of her medical training) and spent over a year there having numerous surgeries. Louie Gohmert and other GOP members of Congress had cut funding for the V.A. They cut it again by voting for the sequester, throwing the V.A. health care system into deeper crisis as Viet Nam veterans reached the age when more medical services were required and younger service men and women returned from the battle fields injured. McKellar saw firsthand how hard it was for our soldiers and veterans to get the services our nation promised them when they enlisted. She returned home fighting and she has not stopped. She is unstoppable.
This determined woman drives from her home in Tyler to Dallas twice a week every week on her own dime and volunteers at the VA Hospital in Dallas, helping other veterans get the services they need. She is one of our nation’s loudest, most persistent, effective voices for veterans and military families. Shirley McKellar is a champion. She is a champion for working families. She is a champion for those who want to be working but cannot find employment. She is a problem-solver who works to remove obstacle. During Louie Gohmert’s time in Congress, the unemployment rate in the district has escalated, even when improving in other parts of the state. Shirley noted that there were jobs available at night and on weekends, but there was no childcare available. She used her non-profit to establish a 24/7 early childhood education center in Tyler. As a medical professional, she realized that the incidents of breast cancer in Black women and White women were different, yet little data existed on the impact of treatment protocols on women of color. She co-founded the African American Breast Cancer Awareness organization which helps to address some of these disparities.
Frustrated by the lack of news coverage during her first campaign against Gohmert, McKellar accepted the invitation to host a radio show. Now she hosts radio shows on three radio networks. She is a voice nationwide on issues that matter. Unlike most congressional challengers, this year she rarely has to contact a media to get coverage. The television stations and newspapers usually contact her. Her first race was not like this. She was, like most challengers, almost invisible to the media. Her second try was better. This year she has more visibility in the district than any challenger other than former US Congressman Pete Gallego who is challenging Hurd for his seat in Texas’ only truly swing district.
McKellar’s donor base is nationwide. Yes, she is attractive to people of color and veterans, but her donor base is much broader than racial or military lines. It stretches far beyond the boundaries of the Texas First Congressional District. McKellar’s nationwide donor base is comprised of people of all colors, military veterans and military family members, women and enlightened men.
Shirley McKellar is an impressive candidate. She will be an awesome Congresswoman. She is intelligent. She is persistent. She is dedicated to our nation and to the American people. She doesn’t live in a glass bubble. She is a person who understands the challenges of small business. She understands the challenges facing regular people who are struggling to keep food on the table and to care for their children. She is an educator. She is a medical professional. She is a soldier. She is a mom. She is a grandmother. She is Texan through and through. She is one of the districts greatest assets.
I look forward to seeing her in “transition mode” instead of “campaign mode.” I hope it happens this year. If it doesn’t, I am confident that it will happen in a subsequent campaign cycle because she continues to build the infrastructure, refines and applies what she has learned, and attracts more and more supporters, donors and volunteers each campaign cycle. Her team improves along with her each campaign cycle. Clubs and Activist groups in the district get nurtured and new ones crop up. She builds everywhere she goes. This is what it takes. It takes people who realize that combatting the hardest to win, fighting against the deeply entrenched obnoxious incumbents is worth the fight. She looks at the plight of the people and become more determined with each encounter.
From a distance pundits can predict based on history alone that Ghomert is unbeatable. Knowing the district and seeing the people who are drawn to Shirley McKellar, I think it is only a matter of time and circumstance before he falls. With the “Trump” factor this year may be the turning point. I was in the TX-1st District last month. In big box stores in Lindale and Marshall I offered strangers’ Hillary buttons. Seven out of ten people offered the buttons took them. I always encouraged them to also vote for McKellar. This is a different election year. Many who were sure that they would never vote Democrat again are not voting Republican this year. Yet the mindset of many Democratic leaders (and pundits) does not factor in the TRUMP effect when predicting outcomes in House races in Texas. I think this is a mistake. We should be capitalizing on the crack in the Republican Party this year in the hardest to win districts instead of merely investing in the “sure deals”.
US-TX 14
Pundits are grossly underestimating the bi-partisan impact of fishing among residents of the Texas Gulf Coast.
Down on the Texas Gulf Coast there is a battle over Sports Fishing. Mike Cole is the Democratic Nominee in that District. Mike is a school teacher in Orange, Texas. To go deep sea fishing is very expensive. Sports fishermen must pay really high fees to commercial fishermen and then the commercial fishermen get to keep the catch. There was a bill this spring to change that. Randy Webber (R) voted against that bill. He infuriated his base. Republican groups started running ads and printing and distributing flyer urging folks to vote against Randy Webber! They didn’t come out and say vote for the Democrat but some of them called the Democratic Nominee and told him which bait shops had their flyers so that he could go and hold informal “meet and greets” in those shops. I doubt that none of the folks who predict that Webber is holding a “Safe Republican Seat” know about these developments (or care). Coupled with the “Trump effect” this year may see a change in the 14th.
Confronting Adversaries from Within the Democratic Establishment
Will it be enough this year? I don’t know. However, if there were some help from outside instead of discouragement, a change would be more likely. Instead, when the DNC calls into Texas seeking donations, and is told that “I’m supporting Texas candidates” we are told that it is “a waste of money!” I disagree. It is not a waste of money to stand up to truly obnoxious, irresponsible, harmful Congressional incumbents.
Fighting in Texas
One of our biggest challenges this year is effectively reaching beyond the single, double and triple D voting lists that most campaigns work and engaging disaffected former Republican voters. The Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC, with the blessing of Garry Mauro, (Hillary’s authorized representative in Texas) launched the Shop and Share GOTV campaign in late September. Buttons with the Democratic Congressional Nominee’s picture and Hillary’s on the same button were given Congressional campaigns in 11 GOP occupied US House Districts. These buttons are given away free in public venues by activists. Within a few days over 7000 buttons had been distributed. Activists are asking candidates for more buttons and the campaigns are requesting more. Funding is limited. This is an effort to “Do something more.” It is an effort to “Do Something Different”. It is an effort to augment the existing GOTV strategies and to capitalize on the “Trump Factor” in an unusual election year. It is an effort to help campaigns who are grossly underfunded because they have been discriminated against by pundits without any polling data or real knowledge of what is occurring on the ground. It gives them something more to use in GOTV outreach in support of our top of the ticket and our US House Nominees. To help with this GOTV campaign please donate at bit.ly/...
NOTE: Faith Chatham is not an impartial observer of the Shop and Share campaign. I thought of the campaign. I tested it in key districts. I approached Garry Mauro and got the green light from him. My company produces the buttons at cost and I am the Treasure of the Texas Federal Blue Seed PAC. I know we can continue laying down and letting the GOP steamroll over us or we can stand up and fight. I prefer to fight. That’s why I’ve personally worn out my arm pressing thousands of campaign buttons and sending them to candidate. If you think building infrastructure and standing up to obnoxious GOP incumbents is worth the effort, please help. Share the link. Donate. Comment. Recommend. Watch these races. Don’t swallow every prediction and write off good candidates who have the backbone to stand up and fight hard battles.
