PvtJarHead wrote an important, even if somewhat sardonic, post yesterday about how we on the Left need to calm down, recenter, and get back to work winning the 2024 Election (www.dailykos.com/...). Now, I could yack on for tens of thousands of words about how important this battle is, but we have all heard everything that needs to be said in that regard.
We all know the stakes.
Rather, I will misquote this exchange from the play 1776 where John Adams is trying to convince the Continental Congress to vote for a “declaration of independence” from Great Britain:
Caesar Rodney: “What’s wrong now, Mr. Chase?”
Samuel Chase: “President Biden is in the field. If he’s defeated, as it now appears, we’ll be inviting the hangman [Trump]. But if, by some miracle, he should actually win, we can then declare anything we damn please.”
Joseph Hewes: “The sentiments of Dump-Biden Democrats precisely.”
John Adams: “Has it ever occurred to either of you that a nation needs something to fight for in order to win? A goal! A purpose! A flag of its own!?”
I propose to help provide that flag of our own — a purpose to fight for.
Many people come to their senses in response to being smacked upside the head (www.dailykos.com/...), but that does not inspire hope.
I intend to help provide some hope, and I will start with my own spin on the Declaration of Independence:
A Declaration of Democracy
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among the people, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that whenever any actor becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. The history of the present King of The RNC, Donald Trump, is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over this nation. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
Trump has refused his assent to laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
Trump has forbidden his agents to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation until his assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
Trump has obstructed the administration of justice, by refusing his assent to laws for establishing Judiciary powers
Trump has made Judges dependent on his will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
Trump has erected a multitude of new offices, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.
Trump has kept among us, in times of peace, standing armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
Trump has affected to render the military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
Trump has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our Constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his assent to their Acts.
Trump has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.
Trump has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavored to bring on political extremists, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
We, therefore, the Voters of the United States of America, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the name, and by authority of the good People of this Nation, solemnly publish and declare, this nation is, and of right ought to be free and democratic; that they are absolved from all influence and power of Donald Trump, that all political connection between them and the MAGAist movement, is and ought to be totally dissolved, and that this nation shall in the face of tyranny choose liberty and democracy.
With this Declaration of Democracy, I intend to begin writing diaries here, on DailyKos, highlighting moments of success for our cause against Donald Trump in 2024 in the name of spreading hope and optimism.
I will conclude my first Optimism Entry by highlighting 538’s updated predictions on the 2024 Election.
538, analyzes polling all across the country and runs simulations of Presidential Elections based upon those polls. After running 1,000 simulations, 538 predicts the winner of the coming presidential election based on who won the majority of the simulations. 538 accurately predicted Biden’s victory in 2020, despite many polls suggesting a Trump victory.
As of right now (July 16th, 2024), 538 is predicting Biden has a 53% chance of winning this November against Donald Trump. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
After the first Presidential Debate, after the mainstream media’s slander, after all of the Dump-Biden controversy, and after the attempt on Donald Trump, Biden still has a 53% likelihood of winning in July.
Of important note, 538 qualified their prediction stating, “There is a 12 — in — 100 chance that Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.” 538 also added that, as of right now, in 64 out of 100 simulations Biden wins the national popular vote.
To quote the Mandalorian, “I like those odds.”
So, with all of that being said, we have our declared purpose, and not all hope is lost.
I hope this diary entry resonates with some of you, and I hope you will be interested in seeing some more optimism spread around here from me.