I understand the strong feelings for Biden given all his under-appreciated work to pass the inflation reduction act, student loan foregiveness, rent control, reducing the price of insulin, combating the pandemic, supporting Ukraine (maybe not as strong as he should have), addressing climate change, and much more. He is truly under-appreciated, for all he has done for this country.
But we have to consider a few things:
1. Trump wants Biden because they know now they Biden is the easiest Democrat for the republicans to beat. Every day Biden makes another verbal slip or gets something slightly confused they will push the “Biden too old” meme. Easily. The attack ads (Biden standing there with mouth gaping at the podium at the June debate) write themselves. Any other Democrat does not have the same problem.
2. Giving them Biden for the candidate makes the race about Biden and his age, not about Trump, his lying, sex abuse, criminality.
3. American elections are about the next 4 years, not the last 4. Biden will be 86 in 2028 and is already frail and visibly aging. That makes it hard for the non-democrats to vote for him.
4. This election will be decided by a very small number of voters in about 7 swing states (the 2016 election was decided by 78,000 voters in 3 states, the 2020 election decided by 45,000 voters in 3 states). Biden is currently behind in at least 6 of them. Those independent/less engaged voters need a reason to turn out and vote for Biden. Biden’s stumbles, mixups, and confusion are deterring them.
5. The “yuck factor” for those same independent/less engaged voters- can they really make themselves turn out and vote for an 81 year old man who sometimes gets confused/mis-speaks and expect he’ll be as sharp (or note) in 4 years?
6. Most democratic voters now want a change at the top of the ticket for this reason. So do most current democratic office holders and donors (though not very many office holders are yet willing to say so publicly). Don’t disregard them.
7. This isnt about assuaging Biden’s feelings or giving him recognition for all he has done. This is about defeating Trump. Which cannot be done with democratic base voters alone. The democratic candidate won the popular vote by millions of votes in 2016, and 2020. Made no difference. The election is determined by who wins enough states to get 270 electoral votes. They means it is determined by low turnout/independent/less engaged voters in 7 swing states.
8. Biden has been behind in the polling average consistently for this entire election to date. The percentage may change, but the trend is consistent. The Democrats needed that the change with the June debate. It didnt. May not have gotten much worse, but the opportunity to change the direction was completely blown. There are not too many more opportunities.
9. Ok now the positives of changing the top of the ticket:
10. The new top of the ticket (Kamala or other, would be very hard to pass her over) will be younger. Age argument disappears instantly.
11. A younger candidate can re-energize the base and attracts media attention immediately. Especially if there are debates between now and the convention.
12. An African American at the top of the ticket will re-energize many African American voters, some of whom are now leaning toward Trump (especially male African Americans)
13. A ticket of an African American female (Kamala) plus a somewhat more centrist white male can appeal to less engaged/lower turnout/independent voters who will decide this election.
14. Biden can retire with honor, campaign like heck for the new ticket, and get credit for putting the country and democracy ahead of his ego. His legacy is secure.