In what I consider a shocking development, former President and 34 time convicted felon Donald Trump has not experienced a significant boost in his approval ratings following the recent assassination attempt in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Historically, such events tend to elicit a rallying effect, where public sympathy and support for the targeted figure surge. However, it appears the Trump received no bounce at all.
On March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. shot President Reagan outside the Washington Hilton Hotel. In the immediate aftermath, Reagan's approval ratings soared around 10 points, reflecting a nation rallying around its leader in a time of crisis. Trump's current situation stands in stark contrast. Despite the attempt on his life, there has been no significant shift in public sentiment. Polls conducted in the days following the incident show his approval ratings remain relatively stable, with no marked increase.
JULY 15/16TH – IPSOS/REUTERS — TRUMP +1
JULY 13TH– 16TH – YOU GOV/ THE ECONOMIST – TRUMP +2
JULY 15 –REDFIELD & WILTON STRATEGIES – TRUMP +1
JULY 13-15 — HARRIS X/FORBES – TRUMP +1
In fact, virtually every poll taken before and after the assassination attempt remains in the margin of error with Trump favored nationally between one and three points. In some cases he even lost ground. For example, the Morning Consult poll taken before the assassination attempt had Trump +2, after was Trump +1. Even with that, President Joe Biden is still the favorite to win in November, despite all of the Democratic bedwetting that has been going on nonstop since his admittedly horrific debate performance.
I think there is some good reasons as to why we have not seen a bounce, and may not even see one after the convention.
Trump's own rhetoric and behavior influences public perception. He has been calling for violence for years now after all. Another thing could be the lens people see the assassination attempt through. Obviously his supporters see it as a horrific attack, and to be clear it is an was a horrific attack against democracy and the founding principles of our country. But it is also an indicator of the chaos that follows this man every place he goes and the divisiveness he thrives on.
At the end of the day, this race has been and remains relatively stable and what appears to be the most unstable of times. I certainly see no rational reason for the bed wetting that is taking place with the Democrats. Biden definitely needs to gain some ground, but he is not getting his clock cleaned by any stretch of the imagination and the things that historically would help his opponent, aren't. Joe Biden is off a historic three straight weeks of horrific press coverage, Democrats calling for him to step down, even a few calling for him to resign the White House… Followed by an assassination attempt, and the polls have not moved. That is insane by any measure and the best proof that maybe just maybe Joe Biden has been underestimated yet again.