Happy 4th of July. It’s been a hard week here, being caught in the middle of Hope Springs from Field PAC [website] volunteers who were disappointed, especially feeling let down by the president in last Thursday’s debate, and people who are disappointed that volunteers are disappointed. What is worse is that we didn’t prepare them for this. We’ve been showing volunteers how TV ads by the campaign in these Swing States meant more voters opened their doors, which meant more voters talked to us. That happy Democrats make for more joyful experiences at the doors. How much easier it is to knock on doors when you are confident we are going to win.
We have lots of data on where volunteers and voters are at, and we’ve shared that here.
In the prior weekend (June 22nd), 23 volunteers who had signed up to canvass failed to show up. But 5,305 other volunteers did. Pretty typical of our experience each and every weekend. On Saturday, June 29th, 645 volunteers who signed up failed to show. Some of them warned us in advance. Only 1,968 volunteers turned out to canvass on the first weekend of the holiday week.
And it was as bad as everyone expected. We crossed 2,000 volunteers knocking after six weeks of canvassing (April 13th) this year and never looked back (even after our Mother’s Day dip) — until last Saturday. You can look at the graphic and see how big Saturday’s dip was.
I’ve received 11 calls this week from Biden campaign people, at first asking about the data (sometimes before i reported it) and then a series of what you might call “buck up” calls. The last call asked if they could review the data for themselves.
And we agreed.
But it was the 645 volunteers who had signed up to canvass and didn’t show that really sent the message. That list isn’t in VAN, in fact there is no centralized (meaning, no single) list. And while that isn’t an issue, giving the Biden campaign the names and contact information of 645 volunteers would, afaic, violate our privacy standards.
Hope Springs from Field is dedicated to trying to provide volunteers with an exceptional experience canvassing. As Early Organizers, we have to because we have every intention of getting those volunteers to participate to a greater degree during GOTV (get-out-the-vote), when canvassing means the most to the campaign(s). So we listen, we train, we accept volunteer feedback. One of the things i do is include volunteers in my 10/10/10 calls that i would (usually, but not today) make every Thursday.
If you won’t hand over the list, couldn’t you just call them tomorrow, i was asked?
But what got people’s attention (including mine) was where the volunteers bailed. Top of the list was Biden’s path to 270. And, to be honest, that’s disturbing.
Hope Springs has targeted 12 Swing States where we knock on doors and have volunteers canvassing in all of them. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are widely regarded as Biden’s best path to 270. Within those 12 states, we continue to knock in the swingy areas that tend to be suburban (or even ex-urban). But these are the areas that are deciding elections in the 21st century.
But Pennsylvania, top of the list??? I am told that the campaign doesn’t (want to) believe that. Surely Pennsylvania won’t abandon us?
But they got access to the Issues Survey results where we record how voters answered a question about voter impression of how Biden is doing his job and where we collected feedback on Biden’s age. Since we recorded those responses passively (using the Observations form), i am working to get that all into VAN (the Democratic database) now.
You can see 728 (or 9%) voters gave us unsolicited feedback that either Joe Biden was Too Old or Frail (or other terms suggesting too old or frail) last Saturday. It’s the composition of the states above Georgia that were most disconcerting. And i don’t have to say a word here, i bet everyone reading this understands what it means.
It is really important to remember that Hope Springs volunteers don’t knock on the doors of Republican households. These are approximately half Democratic houses and half unaffiliated houses. 372 of our “Too Old” respondents are either registered Democrats or modelled within VAN as Democrats. 356 of our “Too Old” respondents are unaffiliated.
But this breakdown is something we are changing this weekend. We are setting aside our leftover walk sheets from last week and only sending volunteers out with lists of Democratic households for those who are willing to canvass this weekend. The hope, of course, is that Democratic households will be more supportive (kinder is actually the word used) of the president this week. So not only am i calling volunteers who didn’t show up last weekend to ask for their input, but i am also cutting brand new turf tomorrow.
Remember, this is the data we got back last weekend. We ask voters we talk to about whether or not they thought Joe Biden was doing a good job. After the Trump Conviction, Biden’s approval numbers jumped, and that was largely due to Democrats “coming home.” After the Debate, his numbers fell. Basically reversed the trend line. A lot of the work that had been done to put Biden in a strong position to win in November just got thrown out the door.
There’s a lot of work ahead in the next 126 days.
If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please we could use your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!