Can we agree that the main question is: given where we’re at, what now is the best likely (goodest?) path to victory in November?
What will it take to get the NUMBERS we need?
1. The Biden/ dedicated Democratic base.
2. The young peoples’ majority vote.
3. Sufficient share of the undecided/swing voters (in the key swing states).
— including the people-of-color vote in key states.
I believe: We’re assured of category 1, but in the last three years have steadily lost some share of categories 2 and 3. ( Psst: these are the folks “claiming” that they desire a younger candidate that can hold their interest and message better.)
So: If Joe remains, what NEW messaging and presentation will suddenly lure enough of categories 2 and 3 back to our ticket? (Same question if it’s not Joe, as well.)
I try to remember: Electoral wins are NOT based on actual facts, but on what voters PERCEIVE and Believe when they cast their vote.
Now I can ask:
So even if Joe is correct that the Thursday Debate was just an “off night” and he can “go the distance,” can he still win if the country-wide (and now party-wide) negative perceptions of him are too wide-spread and baked in?
Will Joe’s good legislative track record simply overcome all this when it hasn’t so far? (Joe’s been actively campaigning for months now.) Can we still tout that record even if Joe is not the candidate?
And Don’t we need a sufficient GENUINE enthusiasm for our candidate for this all to work? Will brow beating our rank and file — even those who grudgingly say ok, they’ll go along — generate sufficient energy? I am a many-years volunteer for Democratic campaigns and this is the first time I have serious misgivings about our ticket- and am inclined to back off much of my planned volunteering.
I know we can’t sit back and passively let Trump win either, but I think real enthusiasm gets a better result.
And On the other hand, give me an alternate and I’m back full force. No guarantees about outcome, but I see enough to tell me we were not on a hopeful path even before the debate. And if youth and swing voters are telling the truth, making a change could get them back to us sooner than we think.
I can tell you that in communicating with local team leaders, no one is thrilled with Joe remaining.
So for me: it’s okay for Joe to say: listen folks, although I feel I have sufficient health and energy to do it; I step aside because I acknowledge that whatever my condition, I have generated too much uncertainty in our ranks and especially in the swing voters we need to get back to our side. There is too much riding on this election for me to think about myself first. And I will still be there endorsing and campaigning right behind our choice.
Last question: what if you agree with me, but Joe continues with “no matter what, I’m staying.” Even if enough legislators get in his face (as they have), does he get to keep saying: I don’t care, too bad, no one pushes me out. Is that a winning message?