Truthfully, I don’t know the answer to that question but I do know that many powerful forces are working toward that outcome and many are trying to prevent it.
What I would like to do here is take a look at the many forces that are in play, who some of the players are and share some insights about how we can defend against them.
[Ed note: Reporting that is breathlessly coming out about the Schumer and Jeffries conversation with the President yesterday and now including Pelosi and Obama may turn all of this upside down, particularly if he decides to step down, but I am still with President Biden and I believe he will be the nominee on November 4th.
At this point it looks like democratic big money said Joe goes or we go. If that is the case can he weather that storm? I have to believe that he can. More on that later.]
Do they think they have the game rigged?
In a Jonathan Karl interview with Steve Bannon, he said “We have a 100% certainty we could beat [President Joe] Biden and beat him big and take the Senate and pick up seats in the House.” Now that could be Bannon’s bluster, but he has been known to share predictions … “It will be wild” that turned out to be prescient.
Trump said at at rally in West Palm Beach in June "I actually tell our people we don’t need your vote. We got so many votes, we don’t need them," "We just don't want to see votes stolen, we don't want to say, 'you know, steal the vote,' we're not letting it happen. We're not gonna let it happen, not happening again." Again, this may be bluster, but with Trump every accusation is a confession.
Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, speaking with Steve Bannon in his War Room said, “And so I come full circle on this response and just want to encourage you with some substance that we are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.” This almost sounds a little more specific and threatening but who knows how predictive it might be.
A primary thesis of this diary is there is a high grade information / brainwashing psy-op war going on with attacks coming from multiple directions. One of the key purposes of theses attacks is to demoralize democratic voters, to convince them that there is no use in voting, their cause it is already lost. We will see more evidence of this in subsequent discussion but the statements above are clearly intended to stimulate that outcome.
This raises another interesting question: Why did the Heritage Foundation let the Project 2025 document out into the public? Is this another way for them to say that the election outcome is a fait accompli? Did they do it to energize the holders of power? Did they think that we wouldn’t read it?
Whatever their thinking was, I think history will regard it as one of the most damaging, political self-owns in the history of presidential elections. This document, combined with the Dobbs decision, the IVF and contraceptive controversies and other actions by a clearly rogue Supreme Court are the strongest ammunition the left has to beat back this unprecedented challenge from the right.
How many ways can an election be rigged?
I am going to go into further detail down below, but I want to quickly touch base on the wide range of efforts that are already underway to rig this election against President Biden.
- Dump Biden off the ticket
- Election disinformation and AI based disinformation
- Election disruption & Voter intimidation
- Threats against election officials
- Hostile foreign intervention
- Post election count challenges and court challenges
- Unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud and illegal alien voter fraud
- Corrupt the electoral college count and let the house decide & fake slates of electors
Dump Biden is a key part of the fix.
Since the day Biden announced he was running for re-election, there has been an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with that choice that is continually amplified by the media. That undercurrent exploded into a tidal wave after his “disastrous” performance at the first Presidential Debate. I put “disastrous” in quotes because, though it was startling and disappointing, President Biden did a pretty good job of responding to the questions given his condition at the time and the highly disorienting water cannon of lies projected at him by his opponent.
That performance was a god-send to the President’s enemies, the mainstream media and centers of power that are dead set on getting Biden out of the race.
When former Vice President Biden ran for President in 2020, he widely campaigned on his belief that he could get bi-partisan results on important issues of the day. Nobody believed him. Hell, I didn’t believe him. Everybody thought that in this extremely politically divided environment, no such bi-partisan progress would be possible.
Then he won the election, largely thanks to millions of disaffected voters who were disgusted with the former President’s rogue and criminal behavior. He came into his first Presidential administration with over 40 years of political experience as a Senator, Chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and eight years as Vice President at President Obama’s side. He has more political moxie in his little finger than most other politicians have in their whole career. He has seen every trick, angle, gimmick and scam that has been foisted on the political world along with the most effective avenues around them and with that he proceeded to have a legendary first term filled with historic bi-partisan legislation.
So those who might have given him a pass during his first campaign are certainly not going to let him have a pass this time around. They do not want him on the ticket.
I have believed for several years that the criminal mob, oligarchic, authoritarian, kleptocracy model of governance run by Putin has become the favored model of governance adopted by the republican party and the holders of power in this country.
But why do they want Biden out of the race so badly?
In a word: power.
- Biden has said he wants to tax the ultra rich, to make them pay their fair share.
- Biden is a strong proponent of the regulatory state.
- Biden wants to dismantle the myth of Reagan’s trickle down theory of economics. He wants to rebuild the economic base for the middle class.
- Biden wants to re-energize the power of the unions.
- Biden wants to restore manufacturing capability here in the United States rather than offshore in other countries.
All of these objectives move power from the moneyed class, the oligarch wannabes, to the people who have only one instrument of power: their vote.
What if efforts to dump Biden succeed?
First, they won’t. President Biden has made it perfectly clear that he is not going anywhere. He knows what their game is and he is not playing. But let’s just suppose for a minute what might happen if he did give in to the pressure.
- The obvious answer is that it would throw the entire Presidential candidacy into unmitigated chaos. The internecine warfare that would break out would be fatal to the democratic party. Harris backers vs. Harris haters. Progressives vs. moderates. Black voters vs. privileged white voters. Regardless of who wins, a big portion of the party would lose.
- It would completely demoralize voters. If they weren’t tempted to sit out the race, they might well be after this fight.
- No candidate from a brokered convention has ever won.
- No candidate has anywhere near the credentials for the office, nor the chances for success that our President does.
- If they tried to put a replacement candidate on the ballot, the Heritage Foundation has already stated that they have plans to mount court challenges against such ballot changes in key battleground states.
- Sharing the words of Jack Hopkins (@TheJackHopkins) who I follow on Xwitter.
“Do you know how long it takes a first-time President to get the hang of how the Presidency even operates and fall into a smooth groove of who they’re working with, how things work, and where things are? If you’ve ever started a new job, you have somewhat of an idea. Now, multiply that x 1000.”
“Joe Biden has not only been President for four years, but he was Vice President Biden for eight years. He knows the White House like the back of his hand. He knows how things work. He knows who he can trust, who he can’t trust, and all of the other important intricacies and variables. Do you know how much that is worth when the nation is on the brink of democratic collapse? It’s priceless.”
You think the oligarch wannabes, Putin and his minions and the Tr*ˆpistas don’t understand that?
They know the reason Tr*ˆp didn’t accomplish jack in his first outing was 1) he didn’t expect to win, so he didn’t do any advance preparation, 2) he didn’t know the lay of the land and 3) there was an army of public servants loyal to the constitution and to the Office of the President who kept as tight a collar on the Rogue President as they could. The whole purpose of Project 2025 is to clear all of those people out of government and bring in the brigades of hucksters, cons, criminals and political assassins to control the high ground and all of the ground below it giving the newly incarnated King Tr*ˆp freedom to do as he damn well pleases.
Voter suppression - how many ways can you keep voters from the ballot box?
Let me count the ways. According to the American Civil Liberties Union, their excellent resource describes the many voter suppression efforts underway.
- Voter registration restrictions such as requirements to show proof of citizenship documents to vote.
- Criminalization of the ballot box such as harsh penalties for innocent mistakes on voter registrations or laws against providing water to voters waiting in line to vote.
- Felony disenfranchisement permanently eliminating the right of felons to vote.
- Voter purges with flawed or illegal criteria for which voters are removed from voting rolls.
- Redistricting, gerrymandering and illegal voter maps.
- Voter ID laws including strict photo ID laws.
In addition to those programs, there are programs for limitations on the use of ballot drop boxes, limitations on mail in ballots and early voting in several states.
Election disinformation and AI based deceptions - who do you trust?
Trusted U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan, University of Michigan Law School professor and media legal analyst Barbara McQuade presented a number of ways that disinformation and propaganda tactics are being used against us.
- Repetition - she quotes Adolph Hitler who wrote in Mein Kampf that propaganda “must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”
- Go big - She again references Hitler who believed the big lie is more credible than a small lie. Few people are willing “to distort the truth so infamously.”
- The either / or fallacy - This technique is used to demonize political opponents, divide political camps and make them fear each other and appeal to the worst instincts in their followers. Statements like “they are poisoning the blood of our country” and calling Mexican immigrants “rapists, bringing drugs and crime” are examples of this technique.
- The part / whole fallacy - Here she explains that deceivers look for the worst characteristics of their opponents and apply them disingenuously to all of their opponents, for example that some democrats want to reallocate some law enforcement funds to social services resources translates to “all the radical democrats want to defund the police.”
- Destroy truth - The goal is to convince people that truth does not matter. Here she uses the example of trying to impeach President Biden and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas without any evidence in order to delegitimize the use of impeachment as a tool of political accountability. Tr*^p’s classic plea to “don’t believe your lying eyes” regarding photos of his inauguration tells that story completely.
We are also living in a world where literally armies of fake social media bots and AI based deep fakes are being used to create a reality that does not exist, or even worse is absolutely contrary to established reality. This is making it harder and harder to discern what is truth and what is pure fabrication.
Media Disinformation
I put media disinformation in a different category from the prior types of disinformation because it operates on a different level. The earlier category is intended to be stealthy and psychological whereas with the media, we have given the fourth estate permission to translate what is happening in the world for us. Unfortunately, they have progressively advanced their abuse of that trust that we granted them and in recent months it seems to have almost metastasized.
For years we have watched the outright media fabrication that Fox News engages in while the more traditional mainstream media has preferred a form of deception by bias that is more closely anchored in reality. Since the age of Trump, the media has learned that the chaos he generates is good for profits and so they have supported him while failing to do so for the democratic side.
Now with the prospect of Tr*^p displacing President Biden in the White House and throughout the government, the oligarch owners of the media are now insisting that their troops take no prisoners in their support of a future Tr*^p presidency. If Tr*^p succeeds, these media outlets will of necessity become modern day equivalents of the Soviet Union’s official media outlet Pravda.
I intend to address this critical topic in a much more expansive diary in the future.
Election disruption & Voter intimidation
It has been reported that the Republican National Committee plans to recruit and train 10,000 or more poll workers, watchers and attorneys to monitor key democratic voting districts in 15 battleground states as part of their “election integrity” project.
The impact and disruption that can be brought about by this small army of “observers” is incalculable. Add to that a sympathetic SCOTUS that may hesitate to implement any restrictions on their activities makes for a potentially volatile situation in many election locations.
Threats against election officials
According to Politico, “more than a third (38%) of surveyed local election officials have experienced threats, harassment or abuse due to their jobs according to a new poll released in early May (5/1/24).
One can speculate that this intimidation will only get worse as we move closer to the election and afterwards.
In the same survey, 27% said they know of officials who have left their jobs, a 10 point increase over the same in 2023.
You cannot maintain election integrity without qualified, dedicated and nonpartisan election officials. Get it? Let’s not forget about efforts to elect unqualified and partisan election officials in prominent roles in election districts around the country. The Bipartisan Policy Center warns about the dangers of partisan incentives for election officials. Their findings are eye-opening. In a survey done in 2006, 60% of election officials were elected or appointed partisan vs. 39% nonpartisan. You can imagine how that percentage might have changed in the age of election denialism and how the partisanship might have increased to damaging levels.
Hostile foreign intervention
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee in May of this year “Federal, state and local officials charged with protecting voting integrity face a "diverse and complex" threat landscape. Russia remains the most active foreign threat to our elections," Haines said. Using a "vast multimedia influence apparatus" encompassing state media, intelligence services and online trolls, Russia's goals "include eroding trust in U.S. democratic institutions, exacerbating sociopolitical divisions in the United States, and degrading Western support to Ukraine. Russia is joined by China, Iran and other foreign actors.”
Putin’s Russia is all in on putting a lead weight on the scale to insure that Tr*^p recaptures the White House so that he can eliminate US support for Ukraine’s war against Russian aggressors with the bonus of weakening NATO in any way that he can.
Post election count challenges and court challenges
In 2000, Bush v. Gore demonstrated how an election can literally hang on with no more strength than a “hanging chad”. It also demonstrated how important courts are in deciding who wins an election. Twenty years later, in the great election denial lawfare after his loss in the 2020 election, Tr*^p and his surrogates filed 62 lawsuits in 9 states contesting various aspects of the administration of the election, all without a shred of substantive evidence. Virtually all of these lawsuits were dismissed or dropped due to lack of evidence.
But 2020 and subsequently in 2022, these legal maneuvers served as proving grounds for which methods might prove to be useful in post election challenges in 2024. Expect more to come this year, in volume.
Now that they have a Supreme Court that appears to be unapologetically supportive of right wing efforts to control the dialogue on these electoral issues, one of the key parts of their game plan must be to get a viable legal proposition up through the court system to the highest court for them to decide.
Unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud and illegal alien voter fraud
In their reporting on the issue, the AP explains “All available evidence shows that noncitizen voting in federal elections is incredibly rare. It’s illegal for people who aren’t U.S. citizens to vote in federal elections, but it is legal for them to vote in local elections if the jurisdiction allows it. A small number of local jurisdictions, such as San Francisco and the District of Columbia, let immigrants who haven’t become U.S. citizens vote on races for school board and city council.”
The Brennan Center for Justice states “Politicians at all levels of government have repeatedly, and falsely, claimed the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections were marred by large numbers of people voting illegally. However, extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent, and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators. The same is true for mail ballots, which are secure and essential to holding a safe election amid the coronavirus pandemic.”
So massive voter fraud and illegal alien voting is not a thing, but that does not prevent the right wing from pounding us with the lie that it is. Expect to continue to hear this lie up to the election and beyond.
Corrupt the electoral college count and let the house decide & fake slates of electors
Getting the decision to the Supreme Court is one possible way for the right wing to try disenfranchise millions of voters to control the outcome of the election but a far sneakier way would be to throw the election outcome into so much disarray where there is no clear winner of 270 electoral votes. That is to throw the election of the President to the House of Representatives.
The 12th Amendment of the Constitution states this “and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.”
Note the highlighted phrase in the above language: the representation from each state having one vote. That is the key provision that tips it to the favor of the republicans.
As shown in the table below, republicans dominate their state delegation in 26 states, democrats dominate in 22 states and 2 states are tied. Unless there is some changeup in those statewide delegation totals when the new congress is seated on January 3 (and that is an unlikely possibility, even with a blue tsunami), an election in the house on January 6 would no doubt give Tr*^p his second term.
What right wing organizations are behind this?
The conservative ecosphere is vast and very well organized. Some campaigns have been underway for over four decades to radically change the political landscape in this country. While it is impossible (or impractical) to provide an exhaustive list of anti-democratic organizations (nor could I find one) I can share some of the more high profile activist networks currently in operation.
The Heritage Foundation - At the top of the list, and perhaps one of the best funded and organized is the force behind the draconian Project 2025.
True the Vote - A conservative vote monitoring organization that has filed meritless voter fraud lawsuits in Georgia founded by Catherine Engelbrecht. They provided the background material for Dinesh D’Souza’s fake election fraud film 2000 Mules.
America Project - Their focus is election integrity, border security and rights & freedoms (or the antithesis of those). It was founded by millionaire Patrick Byrne, Michael Flynn and his brother Joe Flynn.
Alliance Defending Freedom - Formerly the Alliance Defense Fund is a conservative Christian legal advocacy group and one of the most influential at attacking LGBTQ rights.
America First Legal - Founded by Tr*^p Reichmarschall Stephen Miller, this organization is dedicated to fighting “unconstitutional executive overreach.”
Cause of America - This is the pillow guy Mike Lindell’s election integrity organization. Maybe you can find all of that incriminating evidence he is always yapping about on his website.
American Legislative Exchange Council - ALEC, as it is known is a formidable force in right wing legislative development. They are the leading laboratory for developing new right wing laws and testing them in states around the country before trying to take them to the federal level.
I am going to present below a couple of pages from the Project 2025 document showing the organizations that make up their advisory board. If you would like to review the full document, you can download it at Project 2025 - Mandate for Leadership.
What organizations are trying to protect us?
There are a wide variety of progressive institutions in the country that are engaged in the fight against the right. Those captioned below are a selection of some of the more high profile organizations involved in that fight. I encourage you to take a look at these organizations and if their activities resonate with you, and you are able to do so, please give them your support.
Elias Law Group / Democracy Docket - Without a doubt, Marc Elias’ legal efforts through the Elias Law Group to save democracy is one of the most important such efforts underway in the country today. His law firm fights anti-democratic legislation and fake voter fraud in states around the country. He formed Democracy Docket to keep us informed about the many cases and analyses related to these legal issues.
Brennan Center for Justice - The Brennan Center for Justice is a non-partisan law and policy institute dedicated to upholding the values of democracy.
American Civil Liberties Union - While the ACLU takes on a wide range of legal issues, they are also known for their efforts to protect a number of freedoms and rights that are under attack by the right wing.
Just Security - Just Security is an online forum for the rigorous analysis of security, democracy, foreign policy, and rights. They work to provide “principled and pragmatic solutions to problems confronting decision-makers in the United States and abroad.”
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington - CREW, as it is known by is focused on holding corrupt politicians accountable.
Southern Poverty Law Center - The SPLC works to insure racial justice across the country. Well known for its HATEWATCH, they keep tabs on hate organizations in operation throughout the country. Their current HateMap indicates in 2023 they tracked 1,430 hate and antigovernment groups across the U.S.
Common Cause - Common Cause is involved in a number of campaigns to defeat anti-democratic efforts around the country.
Alliance for Securing Democracy - The ASD is a nonpartisan initiative housed at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.. They develop comprehensive strategies to defend against and raise the costs on autocratic efforts to undermine democratic institutions.
Democracy Forward - Similar in focus to the Elias Law Group, Democracy Forward provides free legal services “successfully challenging bad actors and their unlawful policies, shutting down corrupt committees created for special interests, and exposing unfair, unreasonable policies that stripped vulnerable communities of crucial protections.“
Bipartisan Policy Center - We need organizations that can help stitch us back together through effective bipartisan political policies. That is the mission of the Bipartisan Policy Center.
What can you do to help?
This is a time when it is important to have all hands on deck in the fight against the impending christofascist, authoritarian, oligarchic, kleptocratic dictatorship that threatens our country and the rest of the world.
Yes this is not just a fight to save our country but it is also a fight to save the rest of the world. The U.S. is the most powerful nation in the world and for decades, we have stood alongside of our fellow democratic countries. If Tr*^p manages to retake the White House, and even worse, control the house and the senate, the world wide balance of power will make a dramatic shift to the other team, consisting of Putin’s Russia, Xi’s China, Kim’s North Korea and possibly other right wing countries as well. Our allies will not only be stranded and frozen out of global democratic movements, but they will face a foe far stronger than any they have faced in decades.
This is a fight where the global oligarchs, in union with some of the most repressive regimes in the world are working to take over this country and plunder it for our wealth, resources and people. It is a fight we cannot lose.
Our most valuable tools in this fight are our numbers and our votes. As citizens we outnumber those on the right any where from 2 to 1 to 3 to 1, if we all get out and vote. There are two primary ways you can help win this battle:
- Support those on the Blue Ticket in local, state and national elections
Supporting the Blue Ticket
Supporting those on the blue ticket requires that you be selective. Support for candidates in districts so red that no one can beat them is just wasting precious resources. Rely on reliable projections from organizations like the Cook Political Report for races that are lean and tossup categories for both republicans and democrats. Those are the races where your support can make the most important difference. Races that are likely republican are going to be hard to unseat, just as are races that are likely democrat. In those races, your support is better applied elsewhere.
A word of warning, particularly in local races. Know your candidates. Be on the lookout for candidates that may be stealth candidates for the other side. Try to vet your candidates as carefully as possible to insure you are supporting or voting for a candidate who is truly aligned with your beliefs.
Get Out the Vote
I am going to introduce you to one more organization that is “a grassroots movement of thousands of local Indivisible groups with a mission to elect progressive leaders, rebuild our democracy, and defeat the Trump agenda.” They are Indivisible. If you really want to sink your teeth into activism in this arena, Indivisible is the place to begin your journey. In addition to their community, they have developed and publish the book “We Are Indivisible” which is, as they say a “steely-eyed guide to people power.” Every thing you need to know about getting out the vote, you can find at Indivisible.
On a personal level, you can volunteer to help campaigns, locally or virtually around the country by knocking on doors, sending post cards, calling people, offering rides to polling places or other similar activities.
As far as messaging is concerned, the single most important thing for voters to know is they must vote to save democracy. A vote for Tr*^p, a vote for a third party candidate, even sitting out the vote is a vote to destroy democracy. Only one vote will save democracy and that is a vote for Biden/Harris and for every other blue candidate on the ticket.
In closing
I am going to close this seemingly never-ending (sorry) diary with a quote from a prior diary about one of the main reasons I believe we will win this thing at historic levels in the end.
As I discussed in the initial diary, the polls are wrong and they have repeatedly and consistently underperformed actual election day results by 6 to 8 points or more. I intend to address this as the subject of a future diary. I am not a pollster, nor do I play one on TV, but aside from the points I mentioned in the previous diary, I have a theory about why the polls are missing the mark by such a large margin.
The first is the Dobbs voters. These are the people who do not normally vote but who came out of the woodwork in droves in rebellion to the Dobbs decision whenever an abortion proposition was on the ballot. Abortion is going to be on the ballot in November and these Dobbs voters will strike again. The second, and perhaps more important group are the non-dictatorship voters. Again, these are people who ordinarily don’t pay attention to the political process but they are going to come out and vote a resounding NO to the right wing’s plans to take over the country and implement a dictatorship. It is possible that a majority of voters in the blue tsunami that is percolating among the public will not be voting FOR a candidate, whether it be Biden, Harris or someone else, so much as AGAINST a candidate and that candidate is Donald J. Tr*^p. That is purely my speculation but we will see how it turns out in November.
Let’s show our unanimous support for President Biden and focus on the existential threat that we face from an extreme right wing faction that seeks to take over our country.
One last comment
I know I just implied that I was done but there is one more topic, kind of a postscript, that addresses what is happening in today’s dump Biden media frenzy.
Politicians have been crawling out of the woodwork urging President Biden to step out of the race. What could drive politicians to do something like that, particularly in a tight race that is statistically winnable? Is it bad polls? Is it voters calling them and expressing their displeasure (if they are calling, they are likely expressing their displeasure with the pol’s anti-Biden position)? No, only one thing can make a politician make such a move, and that is money. Big money wants Biden out of the race. They want to open up the ticket and they are in a full court press to make it happen.
The President has made his intentions perfectly clear. He is not leaving the race and he knows they legally cannot make him leave … even by withdrawing their financial support. Remember, President Biden knows how to play the game better than these guys and he has seen these types of threats/games before.
I suspect he knows that this whole thing with the donors is less about whether Biden can win the race in 2024 than it is about Kamala Harris winning the race in 2028. They wanted him to dump Kamala back in 2020 and he refused to do so then.
But this election is different. President Biden also knows one other thing. He will be voted in as the official candidate, either before the convention or at the convention and at that point everyone, including the money guys will have to fall in line and they will enthusiastically do so for one simple reason. Everyone must work as hard as they can to stop Tr*^p. Why would the money guys sit on their checkbooks when they know full well that if Tr*^p wins, just about every one of them will be on his retribution list and that is one very dangerous preferred list they want to have noting to do with.
Vote Biden! Vote Blue up and down the line!