Every presidential election cycle, there are stories of an “October Surprise” that will push a particular presidential candidate over the top, and sink the chances of their opponent. The reality is: There’s rarely anything in October that moves the needle for one candidate or the other. Most voters have solidified their support in one direction or the other.
But let me posit something.
There is an “October Surprise” this year for Hillary Clinton.
Florida.
Without Florida, there is simply no path to victory for Donald Trump. None. Zip. Zero. Nada.
Vote by mail in Florida starts the first week in October. Early voting starts the last week in October. The presidential election in Florida will be decided before polls open on November 8th. Period. That’s the October Surprise.
Let’s get a bit more specific. There are four congressional races (3 open seats) in North Florida in 2016. Each one of those four seats are being contested by a Democratic Party military veteran in this traditionally military / veteran heavy section of Florida. It’s really unprecedented, and unique in the country this year:
Steven Specht, CD1: U.S. Air Force, Afghanistan veteran
Walt Dartland, CD2: Marine Corps
Ken McGurn, CD3: Army, Vietnam veteran
Dave Bruderly, CD4: Navy, Vietnam era veteran
Now, I’m not going to offend the tender sensibilities of DKE denizens that any (or all) of these candidates can win their up hill battles in traditionally red territories. But there are possibilities, and the bottom line is, every vote that one of these candidates receives potentially generates a vote for Hillary. You want to know how important being a veteran running for one of the three open seats in North Florida is? Here’s a snippet of commissioned internal polling from one of the campaigns:
For a veteran Dem running against a GOP candidate who did not serve
So, what does that mean for Hillary? This is a cross tab of Republicans, people. They would be more inclined to vote for the Democratic Party veteran than the chickenhawk Republican running in their district.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THOSE PEELED OFF VOTES IS POTENTIALLY A VOTE FOR HRC.
Even if none of the Dem candidates win in CD1, 2, 3, or 4, the vast majority of the votes they pull in are also a vote for HRC. And HRC wins Florida before polls open on November 8th. That’s HRC’s October Surprise. Deny Trump Florida, and there’s simply no credible path to victory for him.
Barack Obama didn’t win Florida in 2012 because of the winning votes he pulled in south of Orlando. I’m not going to break down the stats here (because this is getting too long already), it’s because he pulled in enough votes in very red districts in North Florida to put him over the top.
So, yeah, it would be wonderful if you’d support our North Florida congressional candidates. But I want you to think about the bigger picture. Nearly every vote for Specht, Dartland, McGurn, or Bruderly is a vote for HRC. And without Florida, there is no path to victory for Trump.
4 congressional candidates, 4 adjacent districts, 4 branches of service. Special!
I’ll be writing more about the 4 X 4 X 4 coordinated campaign in the coming days. But just know:
HRC’s October Surprise comes in Florida. In October.
