Three days of early voting to go, and election day.
One week and we’ll know.
I’ve done tons of analysis along the way, but I’m pushing straight to the numbers here, because the numbers are AMAZING.
TABLE INFORMATION:
- ‘Prev Total’ is the cumulative early vote as of end of Sunday, 25 Oct.
- ‘RV%’ is a better way to frame the percentage of voters. This is what percent of registered voters in the county have voted.
- The ‘2016 total’ information you see is total votes cast for President from that county.
- The ‘2018 total’ information you see is total votes cast for Senator in that county.
This means they are NOT going to be exact numbers, because there are always undervotes for any given race. However, the top-line races are much less likely to be undervoted, so it’s the best numbers I could grab to use as a comparison. It’s going to give us a really good look at things, though.
County |
26 Oct |
27 Oct |
county total |
rv% |
2016 total |
2018 total |
harris |
58,602 |
57,472 |
1,210,082 |
48.78 |
1.312M |
1.208M |
dallas |
29,840* |
30,771 |
667,611 |
47.74 |
759k |
728k |
tarrant |
34,660 |
33,104 |
606,757*** |
49.86 |
669k |
628k |
bexar |
29,508* |
27,349 |
570,672 |
47.98 |
590k |
550k |
travis |
21,171 |
21,775 |
470,535*** |
52.14 |
469k |
484k |
collin |
15,201* |
14,890 |
388,175 |
59.84 |
361k |
356k |
denton |
14,082 |
13,916 |
327,574
|
57.97 |
299k |
296k |
el paso |
8,997* |
5,119 |
183,498 |
37.57 |
214k |
204k |
ft bend |
13,577* |
13,068 |
277,137 |
57.45 |
262k |
255k |
hidalgo |
6,902* |
7,214 |
155,878 |
39.84 |
173k |
152k |
williamson |
10,315 |
9,211 |
222,478 |
59.06 |
203k |
208k |
montgomery |
12,123 |
11,281 |
200,211 |
54.1 |
205k |
190k |
Galveston |
4,971* |
4,499 |
120,488 |
52.73 |
123k |
114k |
brazoria |
5,264 |
4,744 |
121,093** |
54.0 |
121k** |
112k |
cameron |
3,593* |
3,522 |
80,373 |
36.72 |
92k |
78k |
totals |
268,806 |
252,935 |
5.60M |
|
5.85M |
5.56M |
*These counties I was having trouble isolating their mail-in votes, so this is just in-person. The totals do account for both, though!
**Brazoria County had 121,181 votes cast in the 2016 election, so they’re short by 100 votes from hitting the 2016 total presidential vote.
***These cases, I have different numbers between the SoS site and the county sites. I used the county numbers for Harris because the SoS didn’t have yesterday’s in-person numbers.
Looking at the numbers
Monday night, we’d hit 7.8M votes across Texas. Tuesday, we hit 8.2M, with a voter participation rate of over 48% already. That puts us right on track to pass 2016 total votes on Thursday, with both Friday and election day itself to go.
For the Top 15, we’ve now passed 2018’s TOTAL vote, and could pass the 2016 total numbers today.
By the way, 20% of voters plan to vote on election day.
We have counties that have passed their 2016 votes! Take a look at them! And before folks start telling me about how they’re red suburbs, remember the trends…
So this is amazing. Absolutely amazing.
We’re gonna pass 11M votes, you heard it here, too. And 11M is our golden number. Why? Because there’s only so many new or ‘shy’ Republicans in TX. Don’t believe me? Take a look at what even TargetSmart’s CEO is saying.
WHO has been doing better on that education scale? Add in that pollsters have been rebalancing to try make sure they’ve got enough non-college voters, and we could be seeing something far bigger than we think. Of course, it could be a nailbiter, but just think about it. WHEN is the last time you saw Texas NOT called as polls closed?
YOUTH Vote? They never turn out, right? Except they ARE.
Now in my case, I’d been seeing the voter percentage in the ‘universe’ of all voters as being 10-12% of the ‘18-29’ range, which is more like double, but in either case — we’re seeing a LOT more young voters coming out this year. Young voters are NOT generally considered a GOP demographic, to say the least!
Other bits and bobs — a lot has been made about how Trump’s support among Latinos has climbed between 2016 and 2020. But ‘climbed’ is...relative. Here’s an example.
‘Improved’ in this case still means ‘losing by 40 points’.
Projection: We’ll hit 8.5M votes today (which is also when we should pass the 2016 numbers for the top 15 counties), and probably 9-9.1M on Thurs. Then Fri’s the BIG day where I’m expecting to see us hit anywhere from 9.5-9.8M votes statewide.
...which sets us up well for an 11.5M-12.5M total vote, as of election day.
We can do it! Analysis included!
The short of the matter is, the polls are close. We’re competing in 22 State House districts, and polling ahead in at least 11 — when we need nine to take the State House.
Oh, and let’s add in the Railroad Commissioner, which actually controls a lot with the oil and gas regulations and permissions in TX, and where we have an amazing woman running to bring sanity to that position.
The numbers are matching what the above tweets are saying: educated voters and cities are where the increased vote is coming from, by and large. Texas as a whole will hit the 2016 total vote later than the top 15 counties, and the difference is coming from the suburbs. More than that, our cities are coming along as well. Cameron, Dallas, El Paso, and Hidalgo Counties are underperforming based on when they’ll hit their 2016 numbers: if you can do focused GOTV, I’d advice looking there. In the case of Cameron, El Paso and Hidalgo, some of this is due directly to the CoVid spike, so please keep that in mind!
My guess is that we need at least 11M votes. I don’t think that number of total votes is in question any longer. There’s a real shot we’ll hit 12M votes. As to polls and polling error? In 2018, the polls understated Beto by over 4%. David Wasserman thinks there’s a real chance of that again this year.
Just how serious is the Biden campaign? They’re not only putting money into Texas, but they’re sending people. And a bus tour. NONE of this would happen if Biden thought TX was off the table. After all, are they sending a bus tour through Utah, for example? (Nothing against those Dems fighting the good fight out there, it’s just a lot further a lift at the moment. We’ll get there, too!)
Credit where it’s due — and ways to help
NONE of this would be possible today without the hard work, year over thankless year, by folks in Harris County, Battleground Texas, League of Women Voters, Jolt, and countless other groups who’ve believed despite being told that Texas was a waste of time, was ‘just idiots and book burners,’ etc. Beto was the right candidate at the right time, and got enough attention for national groups to see that we were SERIOUS, and then reinvested all that goodwill and money back into...the people of Texas, with his voter registration drives, GOTV, support of candidates up and down the ticket, etc. Only this time, we got paid staffers and offices from the DNC, DSCC, DLCC, Biden campaign, etc.
We’ve got candidates all over, and this was the first election I could vote blue straight down the ticket. More than that, they’re great candidates that represent the amazing diversity, independence, and caring that is in Texas — it was just buried under years of gerrymandering and assholes that we’re slowly getting rid of. Or, possibly, quickly.
Battleground Texas
Join Beto and his Powered by People GOTV effort.
ProjectTurnout2020
Sisters United Alliance,
Jolt
For those wanting a legislative focus, how about flipping the TX State House?
Other groups include: Mi Familia Voto; Move Texas; TX Freedom Network; TX Organizing Project; Transexual Educ. Network; Workers Defense Project; Youth Rise TX; Movement Voter Project; Swing Left Texas; Turn Rural TX Blue; TX Dem. Party.
FINALLY, we still expect intimidation, misinformation, and other shenanigans. Have a hotline ready!