Texas has been on fire in terms of voting. As of Aug 26th over 7.8 million Texans (46% of all registered voters) have already voted. For reference just shy of 9.0 million Texans voted in 2016, and there are four more days of early voting and voting on election day. There have been so many amazing stories in dailykos by commentators.
Increasingly it looks like Biden can win Texas. Four main reasons:
(1) Democrats have fared well in the large urban enclaves of Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and El Paso. Hillary Clinton accumulated a 740K advantage against Trump in just these four areas. It looks like all but one (El Paso might) of those urban centers will exceed 2016 voting levels.
(2) It looks like democrats have made substantial inroads into the suburbs surrounding these major population centers: Brazoria and FortBend around Houston, Hays and Williamson counties around Austin, Collin and Denton counties around Dallas etc. If the republican margin in the suburbs is kept to a minimum, the math gets substantially difficult for the republicans.
(3) Young and new voters are voting in record numbers in Texas. Tufts University found that over 750,000 young voters (18-29) have already cast their ballot and this more than six times higher than the 106,000 votes cast during early voting in 2016, and is highest in the nation.
(4) Five Texas republican congressmen decided not to run for Congress this time around, which has brought a lot of fresh, energetic candidates to the race. For example, one of the key races that has attracted national prominence is the race for US congressional district - TX-22, and is considered as a tossup by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the economist.
The road for Biden victory goes through fighting the dominance of republicans in the suburbs. There is evidence to show that this is happening. I live in Brazoria. Brazoria county is often referred to as the county "Where Texas Began", and is as red a county as they come. Republicans control the local offices, and were often elected unopposed. The conventional wisdom was that it is not worth the effort for democrats to be spending time or money in Brazoria.
Brazoria county's population has doubled from around 170,000 in 1980 to about 346,000 in 2020, and most of the growth was in Pearland. The influx of well educated, diverse population to Pearland - one of the largest population centers in Brazoria - infused Brazoria with a rush of democratic energy. Democratic candidates are running up and down the ballot - challenging every position. As roughly 22% of the voters in TX-22 live in Brazoria county, getting the democratic vote in Brazoria is critical to flip TX-22, - district previously represented by republican stalwarts like Tom Delay or Ron Paul.
Even a few percentage point shift toward the democrats in Brazoria county could help win several races, let alone have an oversized impact on flipping TX-22. So, how is Brazoria doing in 2020?
With three days of early voting left, over 121,000 residents of Brazoria county (55.3% of all registered voters) have already cast their ballot, surpassing the total number of votes cast in 2018 (112K, or 53.3%), and on track to exceed the final vote tally in 2016 (123K or 61.8%).
These final days are crucial. I know that all of us are tired of constant emails, phone calls and text messages from candidates asking for money.
If you could help a local county democratic party to do the voter outreach, e.g., staff the polling locations to educate voters of down ballot races in these crucial final days (Texas eliminated the straight party voting for this cycle), we can swing a few more points toward the democrats.
When Texas turns below, the politics in the country will get better. Republicans will have to reckon with a changed country.
Imagine for a moment, what goes on in the heads of all those republicans like Cornyn who shamelessly stood by Trump for the past four years, if Biden wins Texas on Nov 4th. That road to victory has to be paved in counties like Brazoria.
If you can, please
contribute. Let's make the impossible happen. Find a local county democratic party and make a contribution.