The GOP's Current Take for 2020 TX turnout
"In Texas, where Democrats hope to compete at all levels after O’Rourke’s narrow loss last year, Sen. John Cornyn is running as if he’s expecting his toughest race yet. He said he expects between 10 and 11 million votes in the state, which would represent massive increases from both 2016 and 2018.
“It’s going to be house-to-house, hand-to-hand combat,” Cornyn said. “My goal is to earn every vote the president gets, but to add to that."
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/24/democrats-senate-takeover-strategy-2020-1376414
Since 8.9 million Texas cast a vote for President in 2016, Cornyn'spredicting about 20% surge in turnout in 2020. In comparison, Texas saw a 18% increase in turnout over its 2014's dismal numbers. I ran Corynyn's estimate by the same Texas sources I used to predict a 2pt loss for Beto on November 4, 2018 here.
How Did My Advance 2018 Turnout Estimates Perform?
"TX SEN: Surging urban & Millennial vote + surprising Bush support= 2pt game now.
Experts are now predicting total vote could come close to 7.4 million, 300,000+ more than most pollsters are modeling.
While the Cruz campaign been publically crowing over the GOP turnout, privately there is some growing concern the urban surge could flip Tarrant County to the Dems. Tarrant County (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area) is the 3rd largest county, and Trump won it 52.2% to 43.5%. But like some other Texas' counties, it's held Republican mainly due to low minority and under 35 turnout rates.
No one, I repeat NO ONE has any real handle how many Texans will come out Tuesday."
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/3/1809688/-Surging-urban-Millennial-vote-surprising-Bush-support-2pt-game-now
No one, including my own source in early November, predicted the record-shattering 8.3 million turnout!
2+ million more than Cruz's initial estimates and 3/4 million more than experts predicted after early voting tallies.
Today, those same sources told me in 2020 the TX GOP may be once again heading into "uncharted turnout territory"and a tsunami is building on the horizon.
We then had a long talk about the history of Battleground Texas and a 2019 analysis, which I found very helpful so sharing it here...
2013-2018 Turnout Performance
In 2013, Jeremy Bird, a Deputy Director of OFA, and then National Field Director of Obama's 2012 campaign, helped found Battleground Texas. Bird's initial goal was to turn Texas into a battleground for the 2020 Presidential election.
"A new group called Battleground Texas is planning to spend tens of millions of dollars trying to turn Texas blue by 2020. It is made up of Obama campaign veterans, like former field director Jeremy Bird, with lots of experience targeting and turning out minority voters for Democrats. Bird wants to do the same thing for Texas."
https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/07/01/197692543/will-texas-become-a-presidential-battleground
Then came the crushing 2014 mid-terms. In November of 2014, a paltry 4.5 million, only 33.7% of Texas registered voters cast a ballot. Senator Cornyn coasted to victory with 61.6% of the vote. Despite all the publicity and support from Battleground Texas, Abbott crushed Wendy Davis 59.3% to 38.9%. Needless to say, TX GOP laughed at Bird's early mobilization efforts.
Then in 2016, 8.9 million, 59.4% of registered Texans cast a ballot for President. Trump under-performed his final polling average by nearly 3%, winning by just 9%. For the first time since 1996, a Democrat came within single digits of their GOP opponent.
Notably, the close 1992 and 1996 Texas elections were attributed to native son Ross Perot cutting into GOP margins. Not since Jimmy Carter beat Gerard Ford in 1976, has a Democrat stood any real chance of winning a two-person race in Texas. However, even Trump's closer than expected win didn't challenge the "it's a ruby red state" orthodoxy RNC and DNC bought into.
Like Jeremy Bird, Beto preached,"Texas isn't a red state. It's a non-voting state."
In early 2018, Cruz's team initially forecast of total turnout of 6-6.5 million, nearly a 50% increase over 2014's dismal turnout, for sure. But, nowhere near the presidential-level turnout Beto's team believed possible. Keep in mind Cruz's summer models didn't show Beto capable of even breaking 3 million votes.
"In April, Texans Are had done some modeling that pegged "surge" turnout at over 6.8 million.
As early voting shattered records for a midterm election, though, Republicans began to suspect they were entering uncharted territory, if only because there was no precedent for a midterm election in Texas. Heading into Election Day, Cruz's campaign had boosted their expectations for total turnout to top 7.6 million.
Ultimately, over 8.3 million Texans,or 53 percent of voters, cast a ballot, making it the largest turnout for a midterm in recent history."
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/09/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-closest-texas-race-40-years/
2020 – Completely Uncharted Turnout Territory
aka the Tsunami on the Horizon
Texas rural counties are not only shrinking, my sources believe Trump and Cruz came close to maximizing the rural vote, while Democratic still hold far more room to grow their urban and suburban vote totals.
"For the eighth consecutive year, the five-county Austin metropolitan area that includes Travis, Bastrop, Hays, Williamson and Caldwell counties was the fastest-growing area in the country among metros with at least 1 million people, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau population estimates released Thursday.
Last year, the Austin-Round Rock metro area gained 53,086 people — roughly 70% as a result of international and domestic migration — to bring the population to 2,168,316, or a 2.5% increase from 2017, the population estimates show."
https://www.statesman.com/news/20190418/austin-region-fastest-growing-large-metro-in-nation-8-years-running-data-shows
Travis County, which encompasses the city of Austin, was a blue dot amid asea of red in 2016. In 2018, Beto won Hays and Williamson counties. Light-pink Caldwell and Bastrop counties are expected to flip in 2020.
Democratic turnout in the Texas border counties lagged in 2018 and will again in 2020. Sadly, Trump's border intimidation tactics are quite effective.
As my sources predicted, Beto did manage the once unthinkable, and flipped Tarrant County (Fort Worth). As the third-most populous county in the state, Tarrant represented the GOP's last large urban center and long considered "Bush Country." Beto gained 6+ points over Clinton here. Democrats have long believed flipping bell-weather Tarrant would signal TX battleground status.
Dems have not only neutralized the Fort Worth GOP vote totals but will add a not insignificant tally to their own in 2020. The suburbs of Collins and Denton are expected to flip in 2020. Another dog-fight won.
Home to Houston, Harris is the 3rd most populous county in the entire country but it doesn’t vote like it due to GOP's minority suppression efforts. All that changed in 2018. Dems tossed out the odious GOP county clerk and elected Diane Trautman. She's already implemented several programs to expand voting access, especially during the critical early voting period. As for the Houston's suburbs, Beto did win Ford Bend, but there's still room to grow here.
Cornyn's model is prepared for a "surge" from Houston, Harris County. However, my source says Trautman is preparing for a "tsunami" in 2020. "She's a real game-changer."
In 2018, Beto did prove Texas isn't a ruby red state and came within 220,000 of flipping it.
In 2020, the combination of the Austin and Houston area tsunamis plus a suburban surge turnout is going to shock all the forecasters... again.
By the time all votes get tallied, my source predicts Texas will blow way past Cornyn's 10-11 million estimate, and hit closer to 12 million ballots cast.