First off, Happy New Year to all my fellow Kossacks! Hope your 2018 is off to a good start. I am very happy 2018 is here because we’re getting closer to the midterm elections and we have a ton of opportunities to usher in a big blue wave. But we don’t have to wait until November to usher it in. Just outside my hometown of Pittsburgh, PA, there is a special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th district to replace disgraced Congressman Tim Murphy (R. PA-18) that is already gaining serious coverage and traction:
The next closely-watched special election is set to take place in a conservative Pennsylvania House district that will test the Democratic Party’s appeal with white, working-class voters who now reliably vote Republican.
Democrat Conor Lamb will face off against Republican state Representative Rick Saccone on March 13 in a race to replace former Republican Representative Tim Murphy, a pro-life congressman who resigned earlier this year after reports surfaced that he had allegedly asked a woman with whom he had an affair to get an abortion.
The Democratic Party is ending 2017 on a high note after Doug Jones beat Republican Roy Moore in a major upset victory in the Alabama Senate special election. But Democrats have not yet shown they can win congressional seats in the Rust Belt and industrial midwest states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which flipped from blue to red in the last presidential election. The March special election may gauge whether Democrats can make inroads in those parts of the political map.
“This gives Democrats an opportunity to go to the blue-collar, white voters that Trump won in 2016 and say, ‘Trump betrayed you. He said he was going to be a populist president, and fight for you, but all he’s done so far is favors for corporate America,’” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist and president of Bannon Communications Research, a Washington, D.C.-based political consulting firm.
The Pennsylvania district is a mix of working-class rural areas and affluent suburbs populated with mostly white voters. The district was once considered favorable territory for conservative Democrats and Democrats still have a voter registration advantage, but now the district reliably votes Republican. Trump won the Pennsylvania district by 20 points and in 2012, Mitt Romney won it by nearly 17 points.
It’s not yet clear how much of a chance Democrats will have. The Cook Political Report initially rated the race “Likely Republican” after Murphy’s resignation, but has since changed its rating to “Lean Republican,” indicating that the election could be competitive.
Given the makeup and electoral history of the district, you might be wondering why Democrats are feeling energized about this particular district. Franklin & Marshall University political experts, G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young give us six reasons why we should be feeling pretty optimistic our chances here:
• The Political Climate. The national political climate has turned sharply against Republican candidates. Particularly worrisome is the so-called generic-ballot question pollsters ask regarding which party voters prefer in the next congressional election. Democrats now sport a plus-12.8 advantage in the Real Clear Politics average on that question, a statistic previously associated with massive "wave" elections sweeping incumbents out of power.
• The Candidates. Democrats have nominated a centrist, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Conor Lamb, the scion of a respected area political family, who will campaign on issues like opioids and infrastructure. He has already moved to mute controversy over polarizing issues such as gun control and abortion.
Republicans, however, have nominated a conservative firebrand, state Rep. Rick Saccone, best known for introducing legislation requiring school districts to post "in God we Trust" in every school. Saccone frequently brags "I was Trump before Trump was Trump" — while Trump's approval rating in Pennsylvania sags at around 37 percent.
• Lamb's Union Support. In an important union district with around 87,000 union members and families living in the 18th, union leadership support matters. The AFL-CIO has endorsed Lamb. Unions are expected to provide him strong support, including contributions and vigorous get-out-the-vote efforts that are often key in special elections. While Murphy sometimes worked with unions, Saccone recently angered them by voting for a paycheck protection bill.
• The GOP's Enthusiasm Gap. Increasingly in the aftermath of Trump's controversial first year, Democrats are animated and activated while Republicans show less excitement and less enthusiasm. Some of this is playing out in the Democrats consistent "overperformance" in earlier special elections around the country — not least the Democratic upset victory in Alabama. Republican candidates in every special election this year have failed to match Trump's 2016 numbers. Then, too, Democrats seem genuinely excited about their nominee, whose resume and policy positions paint him as a moderate Democrat.
• The Midterm Curse. Incumbent presidents lose House seats in midterm years, typically often a lot of them. And early as it is, the March special election is really the first midterm in 2018. The history of incumbent losses goes back to Franklin Roosevelt and earlier. And few if any presidents have been less popular during midterms than Trump is likely to be. The real question for Republicans is not whether they lose House seats, but how many. The early March results will be an important clue to that.
• The Wild Card. Democrats have some 70,000 more registered voters in the district despite its GOP recent leanings. The enthusiasm gap mentioned earlier may bring some of these voters to the polls. But the true wild card is the current lawsuits challenging the fairness of the congressional districts the state Legislature drew. It is possible that the actual March election might feature a reconfigured 18th District more favorable to the Democrats.
Now Madonna still notes that this is Trump territory but a win here would really energize Democrats all over the country:
Political expert Madonna says Saccone is currently favored, as the district is fairly conservative. But the race has received more attention thanks to Democrat Doug Jones’ upset win in deep-red Alabama. Additionally, political-prediction site the Cook Political Report has been grading the district as less Republican over the past few months.
There are similarities to Alabama’s senate race. While no serious allegations of misconduct have been levied against Saccone, as there were with Jones’ opponent, Roy Moore, Saccone has a deeply conservative record as a state legislator: He opposed same-sex marriage, attempted to loosen gun laws, and tried to inject Christian theocracy into state government and public schools. By contrast, Lamb, like Jones, is mild-mannered and liberal, and has worked as a prosecutor. (Lamb prosecuted heroin dealers in Western Pennsylvania, while Jones successfully prosecuted Ku Klux Klan members who in 1963 bombed a church in Alabama.)
Madonna notes that Jones won due largely to Alabama’s significant African-American electorate, and that PA-18 has few black voters. He says it would be a big upset if Lamb were to win, and that Lamb is going to have to energize suburban voters, particular women, to even have a chance.
But Madonna says that if Lamb were to win the district, Democrats could be energized nationally. “If this election was to be an upset and a Dem were to win,” says Madonna, “this would be huge prognosticator to the midterms, which are already looking like potentially a Democratic wave.”
But Republicans are still pretty worried that Saccone is going to cost them this race:
"If you look at every special election to date, Republicans have been underperforming Trump’s [margin] by double digits," said Titus Bond, a Republican strategist and polling director for Remington Research Group. "I don't think Republicans are going to lose this seat, but it's going to be a battle and they're not going to take any chances,” he added.
House Republicans note they have yet to lose a special election in the Trump era. But their candidates have also won less than 53 percent of the vote in all four contested races of 2017, even in districts where Trump got up to 60 percent in the last presidential election. Based on that pattern, Pennsylvania’s 18th District — a mostly white, blue-collar, conservative- leaning district stretching from Pittsburgh’s suburbs into rural coal country — could conceivably be in play.
Saccone is a former Air Force counterintelligence officer who quipped that he “was Trump before Trump was Trump.” Lamb is a 33-year-old veteran and former federal prosecutor with a well-known political name in the region.
“Rick, with his age and experience, is more than qualified, but he isn’t the sparkle of everyone’s eye, while Conor is a tall, blonde, blue-eyed stud of a Marine,” said William J. Green, a political analyst on KDKA radio in Pittsburgh. “There’s no question that Republicans are worried about the contrast.”
Saccone’s fundraising has been an early source of concern for Republicans watching the race. He raised just over $70,000 in eight months while running for U.S. Senate earlier this year, before switching to the House race when Murphy resigned. And even the most under-the-radar Democratic special election candidates have raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars in small donations from around the country.
“I’ve always raised the money I need to win, and I’ve won five elections, so I’m working hard on raising money and we’ll have the resources we need,” Saccone said in an interview. “I’m not concerned about anyone’s grumblings unless they step forward and own them.”
But some local Republicans are already urging state Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, who lost the nomination to Saccone in a convention last month, to run in the regular primary in May, two GOP sources familiar with those conversations said. Those Republicans are already planning in case Saccone loses the special election. The filing deadline for the regular primary is on March 6, a week before Saccone faces Lamb.
Reschenthaler’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
Saccone has “never raised any money and he’s never had any real organization before,” one Republican strategist who works on Pennsylvania races said. “There's enough out there with Saccone to make him so wacky that Republicans — particularly moderate Republicans in the suburban areas — say this isn’t my cup of tea.”
Local Democrats are cautiously optimistic, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is "still assessing the matchup," according to a committee aide. On the other side, Republicans are considering whether Trump and Vice President Mike Pence might campaign in the district.
“This is a winnable race,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic consultant in the state. “People are willing to vote for a Democrat, but you have to run a compelling race to do it and Lamb’s profile is perfect for this district.”
What’s going to be key here is for Democrats to mobilize union voters to come back home to Lamb in order to pull this off:
Democrats hold a 70,000-voter registration advantage in the district, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. But the GOP-controlled legislature drew Murphy’s district in 2011, specifically to favor the Republican. In the past two elections, Democrats have received more votes for Congress statewide in Pennsylvania, but the GOP-drawn map has given Republicans more seats in Congress. The state Supreme Court has fast-tracked a lawsuit challenging the state map as an unconstitutional gerrymander.
Tim Murphy ran unopposed in 2014 and 2016 — when the AFL-CIO, for reasons best known to its leaders, endorsed him. Pennsylvania's AFL-CIO has endorsed Lamb this time, which could be a crucial factor in a blue-collar region with a strong labor base.
The race “will be a true litmus test not just for unions but for America,” Darrin Kelly, the incoming head of the Allegheny County Labor Council, told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Saccone has backed union-opposed measures like legislation that would make paying union dues voluntary.
National Democratic groups have not committed to this race yet, likely because the 18th district is whiter and wealthier than most in the region. But that may change. While Saccone has already won the backing of national right-wing advocacy groups, including Grover Norquist's Club for Growth, he has also joked about having no campaign staff. He had planned to run for the Senate until Murphy resigned. The White House is also considering sending Trump or some of his Cabinet members to motivate voters ahead of March’s election, according to a report in The Washington Post.
And in terms of the issues, Lamb knows what to make this race about:
By labor’s count, the 18th District contains more than 87,000 union voters and relatives, including 17,000 Steelworkers alone. “We’re excited to make our mark,” said Mr. Kelly. On Friday, the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, the largest federation of labor unions in the state, announced it was endorsing Mr. Lamb.
Despite Mr. Trump’s union-pleasing promises to cut steel imports, he noted, industry statistics show imports up by nearly 20 percent this year. Mr. Saccone, meanwhile, “represents the extreme right and walks hand-in-hand with a corporate agenda that is out of touch with the mainstream.”
Mr. Saccone said rank-and-file union workers “have voted for me because I’m for reducing regulations and taxes, and many of the jobs that attracts are union jobs.” But he’s also backed union-opposed measures such as a law to make paying union dues voluntary, even for workers represented by unions.
While Mr. Saccone touts his support for Mr. Trump and his conservative stance on issues including abortion, Mr. Lamb downplays such issues. “I’m not running against the president,” he said. And while he identifies as a pro-life Catholic, he says he backs laws that support abortion choice.
On issues such as the Trump-backed Republican tax bill Congress passed this week, however, he figures to be a strident voice.
“I don’t see how it addresses any of the real problems that we have in this district,” Mr. Lamb said, citing the need to address crumbling infrastructure and opioid addiction. “The tax bill makes it harder to solve them by adding a trillion dollars in debt.” While most middle-class families may expect a tax cut in the bill’s early years, he said, “most of it goes to corporations and the wealthy.”
And Democrats are betting that the economic message is going to outflank the social issues in this race:
When asked about abortion, Lamb has said “choice is the law of the land,” and he would uphold said law despite his Catholic faith. He has also suggested that there should be a conversation about gun regulation. But Lamb and Democrats in the state seem to think that economic arguments, not social issues, are going to win the day.
“This district isn’t as conservative as it is populist,” Mikus told The Daily Beast. “This tax bill is anything but populist.”
Months away from a March showdown, national observers are taking notice of Lamb’s efforts, hoping it continues a trend for Democrats in the age of Trump.
“The argument is pretty straightforward: While the GOP is distracting and dividing working folks, they are picking your pocket, hammering your union, gutting your benefits, and raiding your retirement,” Paul Begala, who has a rich history in Pennsylvania, including working for Bob Casey Sr.’s gubernatorial campaign, told The Daily Beast. “The modern Democratic Party was built on that argument, and I think it is more powerful and relevant now than ever. I never saw a sign at a Trump rally that said: “CUT TAXES FOR GOLDMAN SACHS!”
Begala pointed to an unlikely source of inspiration for a unifying message: former NBA all-star Charles Barkley, who helped boost Jones’ Alabama Senate campaign in recent days.
“Barkley spoke from Doug Jones’ headquarters about how poor black folks and poor white folks are both being screwed and that he wanted Democrats to fight for them,” Begala said.
“It’s a long way from Montgomery to Monessen, but I think the same message resonates in both places.”
And Saccone feels that tying himself to Trump is his winning strategy:
But while the GOP remains the solid favorite in the March special election, the general political environment makes the outcome far less certain than would normally be the case. Nominating conventions for each party chose wildly contrasting candidates that probably made the race more competitive for Democrats. As local radio station WESA reports, the GOP nominee, state representative Rick Saccone, likes to boast that he was “Trump before Trump was Trump.”
Known as a fiery conservative, Saccone has served in the state legislature since 2010. He defeated state Sens. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Jefferson Hills) and Kim Ward (R- Hempfield) to secure his party’s nomination for the March 13 special election …
“[I support] the agenda that people voted in [when Donald Trump was elected president],” Saccone said. “They expect me to go down [to Washington] and fight for it and defend it, and I will. I’ll stand up to whoever is against that because I know that’s what the people want.”
Saccone is not entirely the Trumpian cartoon character his quotes might indicate; in the George W. Bush administration, he served briefly as a diplomat posted to North Korea, and wrote a book about his experiences there.
And with this district, suburban voters could give this race to Team Blue like we’ve seen in past races this race:
The race comes amid a shifting political landscape and the emergence of new trends.
Saccone is favored — Murphy comfortably won the district for years — but Democrats closed 2017 with significant victories in the Virginia gubernatorial and Alabama Senate contests.
In both cases, Democrats made inroads with suburban white women, and the party is banking on a similar dynamic in this race, especially given the allegations against Murphy.
There's also the fact that GOP candidates underperformed in every contested 2017 special election. They showed dramatic downturns in support in districts that Trump won handily in the presidential race.
Those trends combined with Lamb's appeal have Democrats thinking they have a shot. However, they must contend with a district where Trump's campaign promises of removing the U.S. from bad trade deals, reviving factories and bringing back coal mining jobs still ring with appeal.
Economic trends have undercut the steel mills and mining jobs that once sustained western Pennsylvania. The area includes U.S. Steel Corp.'s Clairton Coke Works, the largest coke plant in the country.
Ushering in the big blue wave starts on March 13th. Click here to donate and get involved with Lamb’s campaign.