Theorem: A political campaign, given the resources and groundforce of enough dedicated volunteers, can not only overcome its detractors but also win their support.
Proof: Howard Dean's campaign, through collective groundwork, intellectual resources, and financial resources, has been able to overcome arguments that he could not gain enough money, that he could not win substantial Primary support, that he could not appeal to independents, that he would not win over unions and other institutional support, that he could not garner the support of party insiders. All data show a strong trend towards winning support from those who questioned his campaign early on.
Corollary: A political campaign that wins a party nomination and unites overwhelming grassroots support from both original supporters and prior detractors, can go on to accumulate mainstream support and win a general election.
I firmly believe that a united Democratic party, behind a candidate with a grassroots-modeled operation, can win mainstream support in next year's general election.
I base this on not only Dean's empirical success, but on anecdotal evidence. In this case, I think the anecdotal evidence is more telling. Let me share my personal experience, and preface it by saying that I firmly believe that Bush doesn't represent most Americans... when I chat politics with my friends, I try to be informative not manipulative.
Through friendly conversation, I've introduced Dean to a number of my Democratic friends. Many have told me that they decided to support Dean as a result. One example: a strong Kerry supporter with whom I'd chatted in May e-mailed me in June to say he had just donated to the Dean campaign. To me this suggests that Dean's "grassroots army" is a powerful force, an ever-expanding circle of chain reactions. I honestly believe this is how Dean has gotten to where he is today: one person at a time.
Of more interest to me, I've introduced Dean's campaign to a couple of McCain/Perot supporters, one of whom has now donated money to his campaign.
And perhaps more importantly, in the past three weeks, I may have converted three Republicans - not into Dean supporters, but into Bush detractors who are Dean-curious. I'm not talking about political fiends, but reasonable conservative individuals who don't follow politics closely but do vote. I feel that most conservative people have no IDEA what Bush is really about. They're voting for an illusion of conservatism. I tell them that I was shocked to learn that Bush has increased non-military non-security spending by over 3 times the rate that Clinton did. I tell them I'm concerned that he's issuing the biggest deferred tax hike in history, and that many of us will be in a 70% tax bracket 10 years from now as a result. I tell them that I respect conservatives, and I just don't think that Bush is one. The R by his name is deceiving. He's the biggest international interventionalist we've known, he's radically for big government, he's the least constrained domestic spender we can remember, and he's neither libertarian nor responsible. I ask them to look past the politicized headlines and try to figure out what's really going on. And then I ask them if they know what he's done with respect to the environment - that the clean air act increases pollution dramatically for decades to come, and is one of many areas where he's done great harm. The environment is common ground most Republican voters agree with Democrats on, and along with the very potent topic of fiscal conservatism, it's a good place to introduce Dean.
At the end of all this, people tend to say, "I'm going to have to follow this stuff more closely. But if what you say is true, Bush doesn't represent me, and he won't get my vote."
Granted I'm chatting with conservatives in my particular corner of the universe, and Republicans may be very different elsewhere. But my point is just that there is no better advertising than the grassroots. Because true grassroots isn't ads and recorded phone calls - but your friends, talking to you as a friend... your co-workers, chatting together at lunch... your family, not trying to "change your mind" but rather to seek common ground.
In other words, I believe this next election can be won by word of mouth. Along with a ton of money and other resources, of course. But passionately united, we may just be unstoppable.
Don't believe the hype that Bush has it in the bag. I think it's about as deceiving as the "clean air act." But ONLY if we're all ready to fight to win.