Kerry edging Bush in state, poll shows
Approval of president falls, economy upsets voters, survey finds.
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HARRISBURG | He hasn't gotten here yet, but Democrat John F. Kerry leads all presidential candidates in Pennsylvania, including President Bush, a new poll shows.
Kerry would defeat Republican Bush 50 percent to 45 percent in a hypothetical matchup held now, according to a statewide survey of 1,356 registered voters by Quinnipiac University of Hamden, Conn. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.7 percent.
Of course, plenty of politicking remains in the 10 weeks until Pennsylvania's April 27 primary, as Kerry's relatively narrow victory Tuesday over John Edwards in Wisconsin makes clear.
Although Kerry ''seems too strong to be defeated'' in the state primary, the election ''ain't over till it's over,''
Yeah, it's just a poll. No, it's not November yet. No, it's not predictive. But when PA, IA, OH and other swing states show themselves to be competitive at this juncture, there's every reason to think that this election is winnable, and it's another nail in the coffin of "the highly popular war President who can't lose."
(...) The university conducted its poll between Feb. 10 and Monday. Among the poll's 501 Democratic respondents, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.
The Quinnipiac canvass found widespread concern over the economy. And that portends trouble for Bush.
The president's approval rating plummeted to its lowest in two years, with only 47 percent of respondents saying he's doing a good job, compared to 49 percent who say he's not.
During the university's last poll in December, 53 percent of respondents said they approved of Bush's performance, compared to 43 percent who said they disapproved.
The intervening period included bleak headlines for Bush out of Iraq, where casualties continue to mount. And as it was for his father, former President George H.W. Bush, voter opinion of the younger Bush appears tied to the nation's economic fortunes.
Thirty-six percent of those who responded to the poll said the economy would be the most important issue for them as they decide for whom to vote in November. Health care trailed at 19 percent. The fight against terrorism scored 14 percent, and the Iraq war finished with 13 percent.
Bush lost the Keystone State to Democrat Al Gore by 200,000 votes four years ago, and he's fought ever since to solidify his base here.
He has visited Pennsylvania 25 times since taking office, making it the most frequent presidential stopping point outside his home state of Texas. The most recent jaunt came last week with a tightly scripted event at Central Dauphin High School near Harrisburg touting the president's education and job-creation programs.
But the administration's reversal on steel tariffs, combined with its failure to pay for its education reforms and seeming inability to kick-start the economy, mean that Bush will face a tougher fight in Pennsylvania than he did in 2000, state Democratic Chairman T.J. Rooney of Bethlehem argued.